What makes you say “vs sicko” “vs beast”. What are your actual reads on villain (stats)? Or do you know he is profitable over a huge sample?

Definitly interesting hand. Not a fan of 3x UTG, not saying it’s bad, just believe that we have more chance to invite hands we dominate (weak aces and TQ, QJ, QK hands) when we 2.0 to 2.5x.

Don’t like the check otf much, as we allow a lot of semidraw hands (pairs + gutter) plus some pure gutshots (T9s and underpairs) to draw for free.

Now as played I think flop and turn call are fine. IF you know what to do otr. Just folding if he sizes too big seems to be a mistake imo.

If villain is very aggro he should have enough missed flushdraws and gutshots and maybe some airballs to justify calling a pot-size river bet with your toppair. Close though.

Interesting hand, looking forward to more ideas from others.

Now looking at it, his turn bet and sizing seems odd. If he knows what he’s doing this should mainly be very strong hands like QT and any J holdings including fullhouses. If he does it with anything less than AQ it seems very spewy imo.

Strong hands you dont like to open 3x as you want to have weaker hands in with 2-2.5x. this sounds like you are 3x with your weaker hands and 2-2.5x with your better hands. A tendency that can very easily be exploited.

How did you come to the conclusion that I’d 3x weak hands? I don’t 3x at all. Except maybe for low stakes tournaments if I expect enough fishy players to still call my bigger sizing.

When villain’s betting 2/3 on the turn and you know he’s a capable and profitable reg, I’d even consider folding here, as you will have a very hard decision otr most of the time when no A or T hits. When calling turn I think we have to call river, too. Simply because we should see enough chops and enough missed draws in his range.

Okay, I checked some numbers, if you give him a wide range:

A) KcKd,KhKs,JJ,TcTd,TcTh,ThTs,

AdKd,AhKh,AcQc,AdQd,AhQh,AcJc,AdJd,AhJh,AcTc,AdTd,AhTh,Ac9c,Ad9d,Ah9h,Ac8c,Ad8d,Ah8h,Ac5c,Ad5d,Ah5h, AJo+

KcQc,KdQd,KhQh,KJs,KcTc,KdTd,KhTh,

QcJc,QdJd,QhJh,QcTc,QdTd,QhTh,

JcTc,JdTd,JhTh,Tc9c,Th9h

to make his 3-barral, we have 37.5%. – > A clear call on our end.

If we make him semi-bluff less often using this range:

B) KcKd,KhKs,JJ,AdKd,AhKh,AcQc,AdQd,AhQh,AcJc,AdJd,AhJh,AhTh,AsTs,Ah9h,Ah5h, AQo+

KhQh,KJs,KhTh, QcJc,QdJd,QhJh,QcTc,QdTd,QhTh, JcTc,JdTd,JhTh

we drop to 31.1% in equity.

Now, interestingly enough, the pot OTR offers us 31.2% So if we believe villains range is somewhere between A and B we have to call.

If you look closely I did, only 2/6 KK combos, maybe 2/4 AKs are too many, though. Sorry for the bad formating, it’s the range I used in my equity calculator. I adjusted carefully, though it might be far off. How do you range him? Do you come to a diffrent conclusion?

Should benefit our equity if he has even less monsters in his range.