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Deep in MicroMillions re-buy. Thoughts on a 20bb 3bet shove please...(Turbo vs non-turbo strategy)
The Riceman
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July 24, 2016 - 6:31 pm
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Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$2.00+$0.20
Blinds 250k/500k 9
UTG patje151219 10,751k
UTG+1 absint90 11,173k
MP1 Iwasomgkuore 5,000k
MP2 Hero 11,517k
MP3 bck071 5,766k
CO sexyscarf 6,904k
D carina289 13,699k
SB kakaka1991 28,721k
BB BOT OHO 15,015k
Preflop
9 1,290k Hero is MP2 T T
patje151219 raises to 1,070k, 2 folds, Hero goes all-in 11,457k, 5 folds
Final Pot 13,817k

Hey again poker friends,

I can’t seem to preview my HH, so hopefully all is good.

You know, how they determine categorisation of stakes in poker is beyond me. Ask a layman, and if you ask him to define his idea of a high stakes poker tournament, I expect he will determine a high stakes T to be a $10,000 buy in…or at least, a $1,000 BI. Yet on Stars, they define a HS T to be anything> $100 BI. I suppose this is because the FT is a HS game. 

I don’t want to ramble on about nothing, but I do like to write about poker…indulge me? 

One thing I love(d) about playing the $8 and $15 180 mans on Stars is that these T’s don’t regularly run at higher stakes. If one is able to consistently beat these 180’s, one can honestly describe oneself as “world class” in something! 

I remember sitting at my Mum’s house one Christmas. I was playing on my portable set-up whilst my Mum watched TV. Mum asked me what I loved so much about poker. I happened to be looking at the SNG lobby, looking at some of the HS HU games going on. Ike Haxton was sitting unchallenged at a table.

I realised then that one of the things I loved most about my game is that I am able, from my living room, to challenge a world class player in a competitive event, in which each player is giving of his best. I am not playing in a charity tennis match I won a ticket for with Rafa Nadal, where he may be humouring me by playing badly. So long as I have the buy-in, I can compete one on one with the world’s best pitting wit against wit.

Anyway, I don’t usually play such small stakes…I usually play low stakes, occasionally mid, very occasionally high, but the series was running, and I had the time, so I fired it up. It ended up being only the second time in my life I have had over 10,000,000 real money chips! Nevertheless 20bb’s are 20 bb’s, however you try to dress it up…

I know this isn’t a hugely interesting spot. It may well be universally considered standard. The reason I have questions around this spot is that I come from a turbo background. In a turbo I am never hesitating here, but considering this T had 9 minute levels (don’t ask me why they weren’t 10mins), I am second guessing my decision. I know shoving 10/10 can never be terrible here, but in a slower structured T are any of you guys 3-betting and taking a flop here?

We were down to the last 3 tables, 26 left/10000, $10k up top.

Many thanks as always…

Mark.

almofadinhas
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July 24, 2016 - 11:58 pm
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Hey Mark!

TT is probably botom of my range in this spot, also I am not too happy to shove, you have to consider V is raising from utg, he is on ~22bbs, what seems to me as a strong raise, if V had ~40bbs i would shove much more confortably.

I am not sure if i like to 3bet, this stakes i see people calling just to see a flop, and if the board is bad, sometimes i dont play it right, if you are confortable with your post flop skills you can do it. ~4.5bb should do the tricky 3betting pre flop.

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July 25, 2016 - 12:32 am
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Hey almo thanks for your thoughts…interesting. Surely shoving tens is never a mistake. I am usually ahead right? I’m trying to win the thing, I don’t want to 3 bet then have to fold to a lot of c-bets on a lot of flops…then I’m down to 16 or whatever bigs, and it’s the same old story…just wither away.

At least I get value from his big unpaired aces…if he has a better pair I figured it was just the way it goes.

At least, this was my thinking at the time.

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July 25, 2016 - 12:42 am
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The Riceman said
Hey almo thanks for your thoughts…interesting. Surely shoving tens is never a mistake. I am usually ahead right? I’m trying to win the thing, I don’t want to 3 bet then have to fold to a lot of c-bets on a lot of flops…then I’m down to 16 or whatever bigs, and it’s the same old story…just wither away.

At least I get value from his big unpaired aces…if he has a better pair I figured it was just the way it goes.

At least, this was my thinking at the time.  

Assuming a range for V of 77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ to open raise with, hero is 50.57% to win, with blinds and antes makes it profitable. Also there is part of V´s range he just fold, this is V dependent I supose, there is players tighter or looser than that, reads help, I don´t use a HUD, so I am usually flying blind hehehe, but I still shove this. Sometimes someone will call with a monster too, there is too many people yet to act.

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July 25, 2016 - 12:58 am
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Damn! I never knew how versatile these equity calculations are! I do them for when I am calling an all-in, but of course…you can perform equity calculations for when hero shoves…I was, however, fairly sure it was a profitable shove.

I really cannot believe I have neglected these calculations for so long.

Sorry almo, I found your last post a little ambiguous. After running an equity calculation you are saying you shove here, correct?

I am only confused because you then say there are too many people still to act who might wake up with a monster…

Thanks.

Oh and BTW you don’t use a HUD? I am always very impressed with players who maintain a +ROI without a HUD, but a part of me wonders how much better they would be with a HUD to help them!

How do you study HH’s ? I am very surprised a math guy like you doesn’t use a HUD. 

Edit: almo, can I ask you a favour? Or anyone else?

I understand how we arrive at the fact hero has 50% equity vs villain’s range. Can you walk me through how we establish mathematically from here that the shove is profitable?

I expect we look at the odds our 3bet offers V, and determine whether we have sufficient equity? Or do we look at it from V’s perspective and see if V has insufficient equity to call?

I am working on Andrew’s new series, and I understand it as he talks, but I always get confused!

Many thanks… 

MovieFX
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July 25, 2016 - 4:22 pm
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I don’t know if I like the shove at 23BB against a UTG open with 20BB (readless). I have to assume we are looking for a fold because I wouldn’t expect us to do well against V’s calling range (JJ+, AK+, IMO).

Hand Equity Wins Ties
TT 33.65% 137,471,700 1,656,720
JJ+, AK+ 66.35% 271,824,540 1,656,720

A 3-bet probably accomplishes the same thing as we look quite committed and like we are inducing, and makes us less flop dependent than a call. I’m OK 3-bet-folding since this is the bottom of a range that I am usually going with, which is what makes it so good IMO.

Still, I think I like calling to set mine the most. If V is strong it should be easy to realize implied odds. I doubt V is ever folding top-pair on the flop. If we get more callers, so be it. If we induce a squeeze and V folds, I’m probably calling the short stacks and folding to the larger stacks (readless, again).

With a smaller effective stack, say 15BB, ranges on both sides get wider and more profitable. Perhaps more like?:

Hand Equity Wins Ties
TT 49.06% 311,286,450 12,530,901
77+, AJ+, KQs 50.94% 323,433,561 12,530,901

I’m just speculating on ranges, of course. WDYT?

In this situation I don’t have much of a 3-bet-shove range (depending on table-flow). Maybe JJ-QQ and AKo+. I’m 3-betting some above and some below. Lately, this shallow (low SPR), I like flatting some of the top of my range to induce a shove and keep some dominated hands in. Let UTG make mistakes out of position, get an extra bet (c-bet), etc. I wouldn’t worry about balancing unless it goes to show-down and I’m on the table awhile. If they see me flat KK and I pick up AA soon after I might shove it or 3-bet, etc. Everything changes with read and callers of course. More WDYTs?

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July 25, 2016 - 7:32 pm
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The Riceman said

Sorry almo, I found your last post a little ambiguous. After running an equity calculation you are saying you shove here, correct?

I am only confused because you then say there are too many people still to act who might wake up with a monster…

Yes, I am shoving there, Not that happy actually jejeje, sorry for the confused post.

The Riceman said

Oh and BTW you don’t use a HUD? I am always very impressed with players who maintain a +ROI without a HUD, but a part of me wonders how much better they would be with a HUD to help them!

How do you study HH’s ? I am very surprised a math guy like you doesn’t use a HUD. 

I get used to play without a HUD, when I tried was horrible, tables all seem way too full of information, not the helpfull ones lol. And I used to play sng when I tried, I fell like I had to break down stats for BBs, and positions, way too much numbers to deal with, and without a huge number of hands that stuff just irritates me. I played some cash games last year, for about a month, and I use HUD then, but i lost more with HUD on, I used to tilt after one or two hours, with the same regs raising 45% from FP, I was 3betting a lot, and not folding embarassed, I guess I have some trust issues lol.

I have HM2, sometimes I do HH review there, not much because my computer is super slow too, and i need my pacience to play poker, I study more with videos, right now I watch theory videos with Andrew, and live or HH with Big dog.

The Riceman said

Edit: almo, can I ask you a favour? Or anyone else?

I understand how we arrive at the fact hero has 50% equity vs villain’s range. Can you walk me through how we establish mathematically from here that the shove is profitable?

I expect we look at the odds our 3bet offers V, and determine whether we have sufficient equity? Or do we look at it from V’s perspective and see if V has insufficient equity to call?

I am working on Andrew’s new series, and I understand it as he talks, but I always get confused!

Many thanks…   

Using the blinds here 6000 (ante) and 250k/500k, there is 804000 on the pot when you start the hand. UTG has the smaller efective stack (you and him), so when you go all in with V, the pot will be 804.000+10.751.000+10.751.000=22.306.000 (pot+utg stack+your stack), you have contributed with 10.751.000 on a 22.306.000 pot, witch is 48.2%, and you have 50% to win, it is small profit, but profit nonetheless.

simplifying: if you shove 20bb, and somebody call 20bb, with 50% to win, you would win 20bb, this will be breakeven on long run, but there is blinds and antes, so you take half of the pot (blinds and antes) with 50% equity. Lets say 2bb pot, you will win 1bb on long run with 50%, with your 20bb

I have not work on my math for some time, if I said it wrong please somebody correct me laugh, but I think this is it.

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July 25, 2016 - 7:52 pm
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MovieFX said
I don’t know if I like the shove at 23BB against a UTG open with 20BB (readless). I have to assume we are looking for a fold because I wouldn’t expect us to do well against V’s calling range (JJ+, AK+, IMO).

If V call we are pretty much flipping or in bad shape, but you have to check what V will open raise with, let say V open 25% (very loose), and only calls with that, this is a profitable shove. But if V only opens JJ+AK, means he will never fold, so is not profitable. At this $2 stakes people have no clue on what kind of BBs they can do what, I sometimes get lost on that still. embarassed

 

MovieFX said

A 3-bet probably accomplishes the same thing as we look quite committed and like we are inducing, and makes us less flop dependent than a call. I’m OK 3-bet-folding since this is the bottom of a range that I am usually going with, which is what makes it so good IMO.

 Some V will 4bet shove AJ+99+ and you will be folding. I think this 3bet fold turns your TT in a bluff, lets say you missclick and 3bet 27o, if V shove you will be folding too. Not saying you 3bet 27o, this is just for an example of my thinking.

MovieFX said

Still, I think I like calling to set mine the most. If V is strong it should be easy to realize implied odds. I doubt V is ever folding top-pair on the flop. If we get more callers, so be it. If we induce a squeeze and V folds, I’m probably calling the short stacks and folding to the larger stacks (readless, again).

With a smaller effective stack, say 15BB, ranges on both sides get wider and more profitable. Perhaps more like?:

 I dont like much the calling at this stage, you are very on the line to do it, but the blinds are too high, I think is best to save the chips for a full double up then. I dont like to spend 10% of my stack and be flop dependent, and hope there is not much action behind.

Yeah, 15bbs I shove happier jejeje, but not much of fold equity.

MovieFX said

Hand Equity Wins Ties
TT 49.06% 311,286,450 12,530,901
77+, AJ+, KQs 50.94% 323,433,561 12,530,901

I’m just speculating on ranges, of course. WDYT?

In this situation I don’t have much of a 3-bet-shove range (depending on table-flow). Maybe JJ-QQ and AKo+. I’m 3-betting some above and some below. Lately, this shallow (low SPR), I like flatting some of the top of my range to induce a shove and keep some dominated hands in. Let UTG make mistakes out of position, get an extra bet (c-bet), etc. I wouldn’t worry about balancing unless it goes to show-down and I’m on the table awhile. If they see me flat KK and I pick up AA soon after I might shove it or 3-bet, etc. Everything changes with read and callers of course. More WDYTs?  

 I like to call with AA and KK too, on this level I think looks weaker than a str8 shove pre flop, may induce some light squezze also.

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July 25, 2016 - 11:45 pm
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Hey FX thanks for your thoughts. I’m at work (it’s 4am here in The Big Smoke…can you see why I covet the life of a pro grinder? Although, I bet that’s a hard existence in its own kind if way). I’d like to be semi-pro poker player, semi-retired lorry driver!

The point being, I cannot get too into it…

But one thought is this: aren’t we way too short to be set mining?

Edit: sorry almo, I hadn’t seen your post when I wrote to FX. I’ll look after work.

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July 26, 2016 - 5:31 pm
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I think the odds to set mine are just about right, especially if we get the SB or BB in (cover us). IF we get to see the flop without anyone 3-betting or shoving. I’m not really sure what is best here though, the more I think about it…this is an interesting spot. I keep coming back to table-read and a gross feeling readless when I think through this.

Maybe it is weak-tight, but if we set-mine we at least get to fold if there is a squeeze and UTG iso-shoves. I’m almost leaning towards call/fold. Lately I’m thinking more survival-oriented and almost feel like this spot is worth passing up. I’m sort of shocked to see myself type that out. I can’t recall ever folding TT to an open, but with a UTG open and so many re-shove stacks…it is only one hand in what I assume is a normal speed tournament. Is this the spot to punt it in hoping for no calls and a few extra BBs? Is TT the best hand for that? I guess that is why my mind went towards set mining. I don’t mind losing 2BB for a chance to double up in relative safety.

It is close though. I probably shove 16BB, about to go through the blinds again. 16-22BB is leak territory and I need to do some work here. Over 22, I think I call to set mine with the plan to fold to most aggression, depending on read and action.

The downside is my range probably looks pretty face-up at just about AQ, 88-TT…so not many flops I don’t smash that I can still continue on, especially against a really good aggro player. I guess I need to add some AK (iso-shove or call it off PF if possible maybe), and some AA and KK to not be totally exploitable. I’m shoving QQ. JJ feels about the same as TT. More to think about…

When I think through what my post-action plan might be if call/call-shove or expectations if just shoving, nothing seems really appealing. On one hand, inducing a shove means we are calling off against a wider range that will include some under-pairs and, maybe, some single-over-card hands, but flipping a lot. On the other it might be lower variance to just shove ourselves and push out the weaker hands that we flip against, like AJ, QJs, etc. The problem with TT is it only really blocks ATs and none of the hands we’d rather not flip against. I’d rather shove AK here with its blocker value.

Anyone able to run a sim?

…this really has me thinking. Defiantly some potential leak candidates in here for me! Thanks for posting. I look forward to more thoughts.

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July 26, 2016 - 9:49 pm
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@MovieFX

What do you do if you call to set mine, and the flop is a low board? like J37r or 953s? Just fold to a cbet?

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July 27, 2016 - 7:55 am
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Sorry almo I still haven’t sat down to look in depth at your reply…I shall try today later…but just quickly…if it helps, which I doubt, but as far as i recall, V was just your fairly standard 22/20 reggish player, nothing outrageous like 2/2 over 400 hands or whatever.

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July 27, 2016 - 12:33 pm
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almofadinhas said
@MovieFX

What do you do if you call to set mine, and the flop is a low board? like J37r or 953s? Just fold to a cbet?  

Probably just call, depending on if it is HU or multi-way. I think there are more Js in additional flatters’ ranges than UTG, for example. If I have the over-pair in a multi-way pot I’ll probably raise/re-raise to threaten stacks and call shoves from LP and perhaps fold to a re-shove from UTG. The later leaves us somewhat short but TT has to be pretty far behind a UTG flop 3-bet or c/r shove. Wet boards bring some % of draws that shove, but with no fold equity and some of those draws having a lot of equity vs an over-pair (e/g/ AKs on a J27xss board, though we are blocking Broadway draws at least), I’m not too worried about being exploited in this exact spot.

 

FWIW I was in a similar hand hand last night but shifted around the table to later positions. I had 26BB with 99 in the SB. MP, who had me covered, min-raise-opened. The BTN shoved 11BB. I re-shoved to iso and MP called with QQ, gg. I only mention this to point out that my tight-passive comments above are heavily colored by position and stack sizes in the OP’s hand.

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July 27, 2016 - 11:46 pm
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MovieFX said

Probably just call, depending on if it is HU or multi-way. I think there are more Js in additional flatters’ ranges than UTG, for example. If I have the over-pair in a multi-way pot I’ll probably raise/re-raise to threaten stacks and call shoves from LP and perhaps fold to a re-shove from UTG. The later leaves us somewhat short but TT has to be pretty far behind a UTG flop 3-bet or c/r shove. Wet boards bring some % of draws that shove, but with no fold equity and some of those draws having a lot of equity vs an over-pair (e/g/ AKs on a J27xss board, though we are blocking Broadway draws at least), I’m not too worried about being exploited in this exact spot.

 

FWIW I was in a similar hand hand last night but shifted around the table to later positions. I had 26BB with 99 in the SB. MP, who had me covered, min-raise-opened. The BTN shoved 11BB. I re-shoved to iso and MP called with QQ, gg. I only mention this to point out that my tight-passive comments above are heavily colored by position and stack sizes in the OP’s hand.  

I asked because I used to put myself in awkward spots calling here, put me short very often, some turns and river are bad for hero, and V may bet them with or without. And was not good to jam on the flop on a low board. I hate to go short when I fell like I played badly.

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