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Nasty ICM spot at a Final Table
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Carlos
Atlanta, Ga
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February 3, 2016 - 10:27 pm
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This is a $22 10K gtd final table on Bovada where I am 2nd in chips with 20bbs opening on the chip leader’s BB. He has 33bbs. There is a shorty with 4.5bbs and everyone else has around 10-15bb.

 

I literally won the last 5 hands including a K3s that I showed down after raising the button two hands earlier.

 

Hand Number: 3342561949

*** Starting Chips ***
UTG+1 [ME]: 514420
UTG+2: 266385
UTG+3: 115616
Dealer: 302153
Small Blind: 228624
Big Blind: 843160
UTG: 394642

*** Hero Cards ***
Hero Cards: Tc,Ac

*** Blinds/Antes ***
Small Blind Posts: 12500
Big Blind Posts: 25000
Ante 2500

*** Hand Action ***
UTG Folds
UTG+1 [ME] Raises 50000
UTG+2 Folds
UTG+3 Folds
Dealer Folds
Small Blind Folds
Big Blind Raises 100000
UTG+1 [ME] Call 50000

*** Flop ***
Flop: [7d,8c,7c]

Big Blind Bets 230000
UTG+1 [ME] ?

 

Open seems easy. Calling the 3-bet seems easy getting 3.7 to 1. Seems like we should never fold on this flop.

All the decisions seem easy given the recent table dynamics, yet it feels like an ICM disaster to get it in here 2nd in chips 7 handed.

SIGABA
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February 4, 2016 - 2:15 am
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Well, you are second in chips, but not by a huge lead, and even by just raising, and losing a small pot, you are right in line with the other 10-15bb stacks.  I would approach these more like, “I’m going for 1st or nothing.”

I couldn’t get away from this.  I’m going with it.  I ran some numbers in slice.  This is your equity vs these hands:

https://gyazo.com/24da4d5cafa6b8c80d6fcc20401f9427

I took 77 and 88 out of his range because I thought he would check those on the flop.  But even plugging those in, it only changes it about 1/2% in his favor.  Stuffy Baker 🙂

florianm1
Playing The Prelims
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February 4, 2016 - 3:21 am
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i open rip it pre tbh

Nervous Mike
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February 5, 2016 - 6:42 am
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Here come some rant. ICM and my view on it. Don’t mess with the big stacks, but if you can’t resist yourself and if you do, be aggressive and put them in the different spots. Don’t try to play it easy, limping or slow because if it’s a good reg that covers you. He will punish you for this. Because you don’t want to bust before the other shorties. Works the other way around also. A good reg doesn’t wanna loose chips and his advantage over the shorter stacks.

Let the small stacks bust before you do is ideally. Sometimes you have to pass on spots and look at the full situation. Can I pass here and what will happen in future hands, will the blinds soon hit a short stack, what will happen in those scenarios. How likely is he to bust, etc. 

But what is most important to me is that if you have a hand that you know is profitable to play, do well against opponents range etc. Play it, but play it hard. As people have suggested, rip it pre. What can he do? He can wake up with a monster and bust you, but at least you don’t give him a 2nd chance to play back at you.

smallcat66
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February 5, 2016 - 8:52 pm
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Hey Carlos, great question. Unfortunately I don’t know the answer to it. I might open fold the hand and never tell anyone about itsmile. I find open ripping it is great when it gets through but with 20bbs, I think it is a lot to risk for what you gain from getting it through.

As played when you open and he clicks it back, you have to call and then when he bets the flop,I probably would shove.

Most people say the money shouldn’t affect your decision but in this case I would shove if the pay jumps were small and probably would shove in your tournament as well but I would probably open fold or fold on the flop if the pay jumps were in the tens of thousands. In the latter case I would love to hear DannyN13’s view on this hand. Also Id love to hear Andrew’s view.

joelshitshow
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February 5, 2016 - 10:50 pm
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Unfortunately for now you’re stuck with my view, but luckily they can still reply and bury my response 🙂

When you raise pre you have to be ready to know what to do if you get 3-bet. My open question (because I don’t know) is, “Does it matter that you’re getting 3.7-1 when stacks are so shallow?” The dynamic here vs. a Stars final table probably requires a different approach because a) the quality of player is probably lower and more importantly b) the average stack is so much shorter.

Is V competent? Why doesn’t V 3-bet more? He seems to be pricing you in despite being out of position, and I would expect him to be shoving any flop because of this smaller 3-bet. I think he was ahead of your range with the small 3-bet, but you hit a great flop. But because of ICM can you still call?

Anyway, let’s see some better responses.

jonmon101
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February 11, 2016 - 12:50 am
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I think theoretically open jamming is the best play, but that assumes your opponents will be folding correctly, which based on my play on bovada, they don’t. So I think min open is good. Facing this dumbass min 3bet, I think I just dump it just because even when you get a flop like this its really nightmarish to go with your hand. As played I can’t imagine this dude pot/folding this flop very often so I guess fold flop. I really just think foldiing to the 3bet is best and just preserve your reshove equity…

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