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Thoughts on a tough spot........
bigheaddave
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September 22, 2016 - 8:14 pm
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In the 100k rebuy at sugarhouse in pa on wed when following hand came up…….7 handed  – blinds 300-600 50 ante……under the gun raises to 2200 WITH $12000 behind…. folds to me on the button and I flat  $2200 with 9-10 clubs………small blind moves in for $12000 and the opener just calls the $9800 leaving him $2200 behind ……action to me costing me $9800 laying me approx. 3-1 to call ……..I started the hand with 33k ……..do you lay down here knowing that the most you could lose is $2200 more……curious to see responses…………results to followclubheartdiamondspade

almofadinhas
Playing The Prelims
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September 22, 2016 - 10:19 pm
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I dont play live poker, but if it was online I probably fold pre flop, such a big raise seems to me that the V is trying to induce action, and even more with the flat call on the sqz.

I guess i fold after the sqz too, i dont give utg a wide range for it, i think most of the time he will be on JJ+, could be wrong tow.

radialmammal8
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September 23, 2016 - 12:19 pm
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Just one man’s opinion here, but in a tourney that I’m doing well in (as I think you’re 33k stack suggests for the level in the tourney you are) – I don’t know that I sacrifice 20BB here knowing that in some way – one of these two players have JJ+ at least…you’re a big dog here and yes you’re getting 3-1 on the call but up against 2 other players your equity goes down below 30% I would imagine…I think this is a fold and wait for a better spot…

joelshitshow
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September 24, 2016 - 11:35 am
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I wonder whether the effective stacks are too shallow to play such a speculative hand.

jjpregler
Grinding Micros
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September 24, 2016 - 7:39 pm
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I would not call the first raise.  The stacks are too shallow to play this hand in my opinion.  When there is a 3 bet shove and it returns to us, it becomes a math problem.  We need to call 9.8k to win 27.2k.  We need 26% equity to break even.  

We have two ranges.  Range one for the SB is a 3 bet over an EP range and a call.  77+ and AJ+ makes up most of this range.  We should also add in a few random bluffs for accuracy.  Range two is mostly premium hands.  Our equity against those two combined ranges is:

…..rategy.com

UTG 49.86% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
BU 23.05%  { T9s }
SB 27.09% { 77+, AJs+, A9s-A6s, J8s, T7s, 96s, 85s, AJo+ }

How wide do we need to make the ranges to get the right equity to call?

…..rategy.com

UTG 44.96%  { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
BU 24.65%  { T9s }
SB 30.38%  { 77+, AJs+, A9s-A6s, J8s, T7s, 96s, 85s, AJo+ }

Still not enough equity to call.  

Increasing the SB range now:

…..rategy.com

UTG 45.83%  { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
BU 24.79%  { T9s }
SB 29.38%  { 77+, A6s+, KJs+, QJs, J8s, T7s, 96s, 85s, AJo+, KQo }

Still short.  It’s appearing we may have to expand the ranges too far to be realistic to give the right pot odds to call.  

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