TPE Theory: Making Better Continuation Decisions with Andrew Brokos (Part 3)
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 4 | Part 6 | Part 5 | Part 7
Concepts In This Video: C-Betting • HUD • Mid Stages • Pokerstars • Popular MTTs: Sundays • Post-flop • pre-flop • Theory • WCOOP
jacks2014
Downloaded the video, but when played it zooms through the whole thing in a couple of seconds.
Pur3decided
The last hand was a tough one to play and interesting to hear your discussion. I think that if we think about the opponents hands that are calling a 3bet and calling two streets on this board there aren’t any hands that can call a river jam worse than ours. I also think that if we check and he jams, its difficult for him to have many bluffs in his range so we can find the fold without too much trouble. For him to be able to call with KQ here we have to be barreling all the streets with pretty much 0 equity and I don’t think this is too likely. As played I think KQ is the only hand we can beat
legend491
I have yet to lose shoving A10 preflop but it can get tricky if you try doing it post flop unless you hit a set or a pair of aces Just my opinion or just my luck
Carlos
33:00 ATo
FLOP
You say there aren’t a lot of good turns for us if we check the flop and villain checks back. Some villains would bet with their best draws like QJ and spades. So when they check back, any A or spade isn’t that bad of a card for us. Any K or card below the T seem like good cards for us in that they dont suddenly given villain the best hand. If this is all true, then the only bad cards for us is any Q or J.
This all assumes we define a bad card as one which gives us a second best hand as opposed to one that might kill our action. If we are mostly value focused, then I agree with the flop bet. It also helps to start capping villain’s range.
TURN
I have some questions about the small turn bet.
Doesn’t it price in a lot of the pair plus draws we expect villain to have, especially given any implied odds?
When he just calls flop, a lot of his range is weak pair plus draw type stuff like JT or AQ. I agree a turn shove isnt going to get him to fold those, but at least we get max value from them. Especially if he has a hand like JT with a spade that would call here, but get away on blank rivers.
This sizing gives him the right price because he only needs 10 outs to call, not to mention the implied odds since we are getting pot committed. I would at least bet 50-60% of the pot on the turn.
Are we ever folding to a shove at any point?
You make a point about using this hand to protect our turn bluffing range in this spot. Given the strength of his range at this point, I wouldnt have a turn bluffing range. Maybe that is a leak.
You mention 99 as a hand we can get him off of, but most people dont call a 3bet with it and then float this flop. I can see possibly bluffing him off of JJ or QQ combos that do not contain a spade on the turn, but that’s about it. Maybe that’s enough that I should be bluffing the turn small in this spot.
RIVER
I agree that this is a shove. Not many hands better than ours get to the river this way and even if they did, we are supposed to value own ourselves sometimes. I also believe that there are players who only see absolute hand strength. They say stuff like “I dont have much left. I cant fold this. If you got it, you got it…Nice hand.”
This was a dope ass hand! It got me crunk at the salad buffet.
Foucault
Good questions, C.
Flop – I guess what I mean is that if it goes check-check, I don’t envision a lot of spots where our EV is higher than it is on the flop. If an A turns our hand gets stronger but that doesn’t necessarily make it easier to put money in good. Spades of course are tough cards to put money in good. Offsuit undercards are about the best we can hope for, but even then what hands will suddenly stack off that wouldn’t do it on the flop? I don’t really care about capping V’s range as I’m likely stacking off with this regardless.
Turn – KQ or QJ without a spade have 7 outs, roughly 14% equity. Plus, as we see here, there are a few dirty outs. So no, I don’t think they are getting quite the right price to continue, nor is it so easy for them to call even if they are. I mean, they could be drawing thinner than that or dead. In fact those are the hands I’d be trying to bluff him off of if I were to bet here as a bluff, which I agree is unlikely, which again is why small sizing is appropriate. I wouldn’t say “protecting” it exactly, just that small size gives him incentive to continue with worse because of the price he’s getting and the fact that we could be bluffing. If you bet a size that couldn’t possibly be a bluff, like what you suggest, then it’s harder for villain to continue with worse.
Enjoy your salad!
Carlos
I am making some of the same mistakes as other fish which is focusing on the obvious spade draw. Our turn sizing only prices in the combos which contain a spade. There are many more of them that dont contain a spade, especially given that the As and Ks are on the board and most people dont defend off suit broadway hands to 3bets like this guy did.
That said, there is still the issue of implied odds. If villain has 6 clean outs, like he did here with the 2 kings and 4 jacks, he is 12% to win. It seems we price him out with our small bet of 2302 if we look at it as him calling 2302 to win a total of 12,280 (18.7%).
If we check call a shove or shove ourselves on any river, then villain is really calling 2302 to win a total of 17,791 and only needs 13%. That is much closer for him, but as you say it is mitigated by the fact that sometimes he hits a dirty out and pays off a river shove. Maybe we can make it even worse for him by checking on spade rivers. Maybe he checks back a hand like KQ on a Qs river.
SoundSpeed
The AQ hand at the 29:00 mark is curious in that it is a dry flop and seems to be a hand we could check back as part of our balancing a chk back range with monsters, call down hands like weak ax, and weaker made hands like mid prs. But at the same time we would also be cbetting dry axx flops a lot as a bluff so it makes sense to also cbet dry axx flops with good ax hands to balance. So how do you balance both a chk back range and a cbet range on dry axx flops? (or any flop for that matter)
In addition, you said you would bet a hand like 88 in this spot for protection, possibly to fold out our opp equity share with over cards rather than give a free card. Again, would it not make more sense to check back with that hand as a more balanced check back range?