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If you are already a member, please click here to login TPE Theory: The Mathematics of MTTs (Part 3),
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Between 7:30 and 9:30 you make the EV calculation of the J8ss hand where you shove 20bb’s.
You argue that when you shove you only win the bb (0.7*1), but don’t we also win our own sb? It is already invested before you shove, so I’d say we win (0.7*1,5) with the shove.
And when we shove we shove 19,5bb’s eff, because the sb is already in the pot, whether we shove or we don’t.
Refreshing stuff nonetheless, Keep up the good work!
It all depends on the perspective we choose to take. I was making the calculations based on how much our stack changed from the stack size we had before we put in the small blind. Notice that when we calculate the stack when we fold, I say we lose 0.5 bb, rather than having a change of 0. If we had done the EV calculations based on our stack after we had posted the sb, a fold would have 0 EV.
Either perspective is fine, so long as you are consistent to use that perspective in all 3 actions.
I thought the same thing. That is an interesting way to look at it, although it seems like it adds an extra step or two. Either way, thanks for explaining.
In the JJ hand, is there a way we can change our raise size to increase the EV of raising to $68? I really want to raise here because putting the decision back on him makes the hand much easier to play.
If he folds, great.
If he calls, then we can bet good turns and fold bad ones.
If he shoves, we can fold.
If we just call the flop bet, we dont know anything else about his hand if he bets the turn and it’s going to cost us more than $75 (difference between the missed $125 and the $50 call) to find out.
I could be wrong here, but it seems that although calling the flop is the best EV decision now, it increases the likelihood of us making a future (more expensive) mistake later.
Yes, we can certainly try to compute the EV of a smaller raise size. We need to know or estimate his hand range facing a smaller range (a smaller raise size will likely fold out fewer hands, so it will be larger than his range when we shove).
My goal in the hand was to show how to carry out those sorts of computations, not to simply solve that one situation. Every extra option you give yourself leads to a new EV computation, so you have to find a balance between only considering realistic options and performing an exhaustive analysis.
In this case, you can choose one intermediate raise size (perhaps $68 as you say) and estimate his calling hand range and 3-betting hand range to find your equity against those ranges. Carry through the EV calculations in that case and you can then compare the result to the other options (fold, call, or shove).