Looking to continue this throughout February and review and the end of the month.

Grinding SNGs is almost certainly the best way for novice players to grind up a bankroll. Whether STTs or 180man turbos, they're a great way to build a roll while developing your game. I strongly recommend anyone suffering from frustration with low-stakes MTTs considers adding some SNGs to their schedule.

I know being twice as good as the average player doesn't tranlate linerally into odds of winning like that, I'm sure you have to do some quantum exponential logrithmic hocus pocus to come up with a somewhat accurate number.  But my point is no matter how good you are you are not bloody likely to win whatever tournament you're in at the moment.  Or get to the final table.  Or even min cash. 

"the probability of winning x hands in a row when we are a p% favourite is 1- (p)^n.

lets start with the easiest example of AA into KK which is an 82% favourite

therefore, to win 2 in a row, we need 1-(0.82)^2 = 67.2% favourite

The chances of losing 2 in a row are 1-(1-(0.18)^2) = 1-(96.7%)=3.4%

Chances of losing 3 are 0.583%"

You win 50% of the time if u do it once. If u do it twice then it will be 25%...if you do it thee times it gets even worse.

 

What if u had 70% to win hands?

 

0.7 * 0.7 = 0.49

0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 0.343

0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 0.2401

 

This is not exactly true... They are seperate hands, therefore you have 70% chance to win each one.

That sounds dangerously close to "should I move up to where they respect my raises".  That's a bad mentality to be in.  Like PowMT said variance is insane.  You (usually) have to survice a butt load of coolers, suck outs, and set up hands.  Crushing these micro MTTs can be seem boring and repetitive since you should be making the standard play over and over and over again, especially early.

Personally I would recommend you do both.  Fire up SNGs and MTTs.  Then as you get deep in the MTTs, down to 5-6 tables in large fields, 2 tables in smaller ones, stop firing up new SNGs and focus on the MTTs.  Those are the stages where the most money is won and lost.  But don't move up until you are comfortable that, despite whatever results you are getting, you are confident you are crushing the game from an EV perspective.  Also keep in mind the higher you move up, the more good players you have to face, the higher the variance.  Adjust your BR management accordingly.

Geralt said:

Is it more wise for me to just stick to SnG's where I know I can turn a nice steady profit until I have a big enough bank roll to play at a decent stake level, where I can actually put things I learn in to practice, and develop as an MTT player, and escape this micro stakes hell hole?

 

You pretty much answer your own question in your post. If you are finding it tough mentally because of your BR, but you know you can make a steady profit at SnGs where you wont tilt, is it more wise to stick to SnGs? Of course it is.

Yeah I figured as much mate.  It helps to share and get some reassurance though ya feel me? Cheers.

Let's look at coinflipping for example:

You win 50% of the time if u do it once. If u do it twice then it will be 25%...if you do it thee times it gets even worse.

What if u had 70% to win hands?

0.7 * 0.7 = 0.49

0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 0.343

0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 0.2401

Think about the hundred showdowns you get...

Even if u get far then you need to know that u only win a few times. That's why i advise u to keep playing. Work on your game and keep your chances high. Everyone is doing that. Keep doing it and profit from other player's mistakes.

Is it more wise for me to just stick to SnG's where I know I can turn a nice steady profit until I have a big enough bank roll to play at a decent stake level, where I can actually put things I learn in to practice, and develop as an MTT player, and escape this micro stakes hell hole?

You pretty much answer your own question in your post. If you are finding it tough mentally because of your BR, but you know you can make a steady profit at SnGs where you wont tilt, is it more wise to stick to SnGs? Of course it is.

So I started grinding my roll on FTP playing single table SnG's and had great success, but since they are mainly all about math and PBJ I got bored fast and started taking shots in MTT's and noticed myself doing pretty well.  So here I am, and I have learned a wealth of valuable information, BUT, I find myself getting very frustrated since switching to micro MTT's (even after trying some of the softer sites) and I have blown half my bank roll in the last month.  It is seriously crazy at this level, and I feel like whatever concepts I learn are actually deterimental to my play since (I feel) I am often thinking at a level above my opponent, or everyone at my table is just gambling.  

Anyway, I am the kind of player who doesn't care if I bust or take a bad beat as long as I can review the hand and see that the math was correct and that I didn't make a mistake, but this has seriously got me bent out of shape to the point I am questioning my every decision and doubting myself pretty hard.

Is it more wise for me to just stick to SnG's where I know I can turn a nice steady profit until I have a big enough bank roll to play at a decent stake level, where I can actually put things I learn in to practice, and develop as an MTT player, and escape this micro stakes hell hole? Sorry if this post is too lengthy, but it seriously is a bitch.