[Total: 8 Average: 8.6/5]
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 5 | Part 7 | Part 6
TPE Theory: Evaluating Bluffs with Andrew Brokos (Part 4)
MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 5 | Part 7 | Part 6
NutflushPete
Great video Andrew, really helpful to see your thought process when analysing that last hand in such detail. Clearly that sort of analysis is too detailed for you to do in game, so how do you then go about applying it to your daily grind? Do you just take away the overall points about having a plan and a bluff target, or do you find yourself recognising similar spots at the tables?
Foucault
Thanks, Pete. The idea is that doing thorough analysis away from the table improves your instincts and your quick estimates at the table. It’s best if you can try to take away usable insights from your analysis. For example, “Wow, I always thought of big draws as hands to play aggressively no matter what, but their equity really goes way down on a blank turn, so I need a lot more fold equity than I realized to shove with them on the turn. I’ll have to be more careful with those hands in the future if I’m not all in on the flop.”
andinista
Wow, somehow this series continues to get better and better. 5 star.
Preciate ya
Andrew is a BOSS
mike666
At 07.30 you call delayed continuation bet with A2. Can you explain why do you think it is a call? On the flop that call seems logical, but once the opponent missed good bluffing opportunity and indicated that he probably has some showdown value it seems like he will pretty rarely bluff on the turn plus the board now becomes more coordinated and you may be faced with a tough decision on the river.
Foucault
Very interesting question. I could probably make a whole video answering it, but basically both of our ranges are really wide. Although you’re right that he probably bets some of his air on the flop, that doesn’t mean he bets all of it – he has a LOT of air considering all he’s done is opened the button and gotten a really dry flop. Also he probably bets some hands better than A2 on the flop, so although I think you’re right that the check strengthens his range, it’s not like he’s guaranteed to have a pair.
If I fold more than 1/3 of my checking range on the turn, then he can print money betting any two cards no matter how weak. I think any Ace-high is clearly in the top 2/3 of range after I check the turn. The only reason to fold it would be if I either thought this player just didn’t bluff (not the case, he’s very good) or didn’t get to the turn with enough bluffing candidates such that this range just crushes mine. The latter is essentially what you’re arguing, and I think it’s not true because of how wide his range is for seeing the flop. Even if he bets 80% of his air on the flop, I think he’ll still have plenty that he could bluff on the turn after checking the flop.
I wouldn’t say the river is a tough decision, exactly, and to the extent that it is, it might also be a tough decision with much stronger hands than this. That isn’t a reason to fold now. If he bets, I’ll just do the same thing again: look at the pot odds and decide just how strong my current hand is relative to my range given the river card.
The board getting coordinated isn’t necessarily scary for me. He found a way to have a draw, but I think he’ll usually bet 98, J9, J8, 86, etc on the flop.