[Total: 11 Average: 8.6/5]
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$215 Deep Run Hand History Review with Daryl “aaaaaaaa” Jace (Part 5)
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donkrx
TT hand at 36:00 … dont you think that river sizing is really scary? why would he bet so big with just an 8, and how many 8x hands is he flatting the SB with preflop? I dont really see any. I also think a ton of his suited hands would have 3bet preflop because he’s OOP and in the SB…. so that leaves pocket pairs under TT. He could have 99, but that’s only a few combos and I dont necessarily see him betting that hard with 99 because our perceived range is pretty weak after checking back flop, and probably cant call. You could say well, by the same logic, why would he bet a set so hard? and what I’ve seen is people just bet a lot more with sets regardless of their opponents perceived range because sets are rare and they get greedy for ‘max value’ when they hit. It’s bad logic in some spots but that’s just what people always seem to do.
Call or not, I just dont see him value betting a worse hand here.
donkrx
For the last hand with A8s, I think that most people wouldn’t double or triple barrel the A high board earlier in the tournament, but later in the tournament its a different situation. At first I thought we have to check/raise the turn but then I started reconsidering it. First I think he folds some Ax hands anyway if we do check/raise turn because it looks very strong. Second, when we check to him 3 times it looks a lot like we have a marginal Ax hand and rarely 2 pair or better, so I actually think it’s fairly likely we can get him to bluff 3 times on this board if we check. I mean even if we had AJ here on the river we’re still bluffcatching to that bet size. Third I think a lot of people would typically either check flop or turn in villain’s spot with A9/AT (somewhat for pot control, also thinking they cant get 3 streets), so when he does bet flop *and* turn I think his range shifts more towards air. And like you said his flop bet sizing looks really bluffy.
So I dunno, I like your play here … it reps a marginal hand and maximizes value from his bluffing range, which is the vast majority of his hands here given 2 aces are gone from the deck and all the other factors. I think if we want to check/raise at some point that the best spot would be on the flop because that’s where it’d look most suspect/weak. I understand why you dont like it in general and earlier in a tournament I would agree with you, but I think it makes sense here.