On the weekend, had a terrible run including losing AA to AKos 3 times in a row. When I say in a row, I mean when I had AA and my opponent had AKos all in preflop at different times and different tourneys but lost all 3 times.

Now the odds of this is approx  7% to lose each hand. So 3 times in a row, when I had a 7% chance of losing,  I lost it all 3 times.

It is akin to saying you have 3 buckets with 92 Black marbles and 7 white marbles and 1 red marble (for draws) and telling your opponent to pull out a white marble out of each bucket without looking 3 times in a row. Seems impossible but obviously probable because it happened to me.

(7/92) x (7/92) x (7/92)  =  343/778,688

Therefore the probablity is a 1 in 2270    Bucket with 2270 black marbles and 1 white one, reach in without looking and pick out the white one. UGG!!!!

I hope I've worked out the probability correctly. It's been a while so if my calculations are wrong please feel free to correct it.

So I will be interested to see what happens next time I get this hand. If I lose it it will be

(7/92) x (7/92) x (7/92) x (7/92) =  2401/71,639,296

1 in 29,837 chance.

In some sick way I almost want it to happen, so when someone tells me a bad beat story I can just have this printed out on a card, and just hand it to them and say “are you sure you want to tell me your bad beat story?”

For those interested the boards ran out as follows  ( xKKxx)  (KxxKx) (QxJxT)

PS, this is the second time this scenario has happend to me.