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April 8, 2013
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So i played this hand a couple weeks ago and have asked a bunch of people about it with differing results.
Villain is young kid, probably early 20s with headphones on. Dont really know him as he isnt a reg and dont really have much in terms of info as he has only been playing for about an hour. Effective stacks are around 1300.
Straddled pot, hero opens to 30 from utg2 with AJdd. Folds to villain in sb who 3 bets to 80. I call and we go heads up to AJ7rainbow. Villain checks and hero bets 80 into 170. Villain check raises to 200 and hero calls.
Not feeling too good when I get check raised in this spot but I do think some players will play AK this although I wouldnt. As far as hands Im going to continue with, this is one of the best as I block all but 1 combo of AA and 1 combo of JJ.
Turn is 9s bringing a backdoor flush draw. The 7 is the other spade. Villain now leads 375. Hero calls.
Again, not feeling great but its tough to make a case for folding when we can assume we only lose to 2 combos.
River 2h. Villain shoves for 650.
Curious to know what others think about this spot. I have some opinions that I will give once I receive a couple responses.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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The only reason not to call here is if you have some reason to believe he'll be unbalanced towards value, but I assume you wouldn't post this if you did. As you say, you block most of the hands he's repping, you have a great bluff-catcher, even though that's all it is.
You should bet bigger or not at all on flop IMO. The c/r is an unlikely outcome. Usually V is either folding or going into k/c mode, and that check is your signal to start firing big with a polarized range.
December 24, 2013
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You need to defend 25% to not be exploited, but I'm sure you know that already. I can't see folding without lots of reasons to do so given prior to the hand, as what hands are better for you to defend? On the other hand, why would villain think you won't defend more than 25% of the time given the line. What could you have that folds? Maybe your hand looks like JT JQ JK because of the flop sizing. I'm definitely curious what other people have said, because I don't know how you're supposed to fold. There are 5 set combos. There are 3 QTs combos that had backdoor equity flush draws. There's 1 KQs combo that picks up flush equity. He may even barrel all the KQs because he blocks you having a good ace. He'd have to only bluff one combo of QTs or something for a call not to be right on the river. If he somehow also overvalues AK (I see your hand, but ck/raise and gii on the river doesn't feel correct with AK) for a few combos, that just adds to calling. Please correct this if I'm wrong.
Foucault said:
You should bet bigger or not at all on flop IMO. The c/r is an unlikely outcome. Usually V is either folding or going into k/c mode, and that check is your signal to start firing big with a polarized range.
If this is a spot Joe should be betting big or not, what does betting somewhere in between do for his perceived range? I can see this hurting us as we don't make as much money against his check/calls, unless villain decides to attack with a range and betsizes geared toward folding out middling stuff.. Does it hurt us that it accidentally invites bluffs? (which i guess may/may not hurt us and isn't necessarily one thing or the other)
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I don't think the sizing necessarily invites a disproportionate number of c/r bluffs (if it did, it might not be a mistake). Rather it just makes it more profitable for V to play his bluff-catching range.
April 8, 2013
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I think the one thing that makes me reconsider the river decision is his preflop sizing. It just seems to be a value heavy sizing from most players even without reads. Very few players are willing to 3bet in this spot with a hand like Q10s but only make it 80 given stack sizes and my open size. I think you make a good point that my flop sizing should be larger for the reasons you stated but dont think that my sizing really induces anything. After looking back at this hand, it seems like a clear call as I only need villain to have 1 combo I beat to make calling correct. It wouldnt surprise me to see him show down AK in this spot because people do weird things at this level. Its also possible for him to have atleast one spazz combo that makes my call correct.
In the end, I called announcing I had the best hand to call with. Villain shows down AA but I feel really good about the call even though a few people dont necessarily agree. I think the math just favors a call so much that folding without reliable reads cant be correct.
December 24, 2013
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If the preflop sizing is a strict tell, what do you think about bet/folding flop? Since I'm assuming for that sizing you think he won't have QTs and QKs but has like JJ+. He'll ck/call QQ/KK, 6 combos, ck/raise 2 combos, and has no bluffs because of his preflop sizing eliminating hands from his range.
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