Playing a seniors WSOP circuit.  A new player comes to the table, so no reads other than he is a senior (and older at that).

I have about 60K, Villain has 30K.  I open A5cc to 3500 (at 1600BB), Villain calls button.

Flop is JcJh2s.  I bet 4K; Villain calls.  Turn is Qc.  I bet 6K; Villain shoves, I fold (Villain showed AJ)

What does PIO think of this spot?   I ran this simulation twice.  First time, I allowed Villain to raise, second time I did not.

When I allowed Villain to raise, my range (about 22%) bets about 56% of the time, splitting evenly between 1/3 and 2/3.  My exact hand also splits that way.  What is most interesting to me is that Villain almost never calls!  PIO has Villain raising 65% and calling just 8%.  This seems a bit counter intuitive to me; Villain has position, and does not need 4 bets to go into the pot to get all in.  Why is he raising so much?  Looking at the hand hands PIO strictly prefers to raise gives me a clue.  It is almost always raising 77-TT, I guess as protection from my overcards.  It also raises some complete airballs some of the time, like A6s no BDFD.  Of course it raises a bunch of Jx as well, though it does slow play Jx some of the time.

In reality, I think most players literally have no raising range here.  I must admit that is how I’d play this spot in Villain’s shoes as well.  How can we exploit this?  One obvious exploit is to bet our entire range here, and bet on the small side (as I did, although I think I can/should go even smaller).  When we take away Villains raising range here, we now bet 90% of the time. The only hands it checks (as hero) with reasonable frequency are JJ, and the Axs with no BDFD.   

I think the key exploit on this hand is that we can bet range, we can bet it small.  Villain is likely going to be inelastic with his calls, although I can’t say for sure if he will play his pocket pairs the same to small/large sizing.

On the turn, when we pick up our Flush draw, this seems like an obvious bet/fold.  PIO does bet my exact hand most of the time, and does call the jam.  Here, I think this is an easy exploit to fold.  PIO thinks this is a small +Cev call for about 6% of the pot, but I think this is not close.  Villain is never bluffing here, so we have at most 8 outs (or 7 if he has KxJ, or none if he is already full).  Add in this is a tournament (and about 15% from the bubble) and this is an even easier fold.