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AA butchered?
Reg_u_l8t0r
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October 24, 2017 - 9:09 pm
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Hi guys

At the risk of shaming myself straight off I was playing a live tournament recently and close to the money I was dealt AA UTG with 40bb stack.  Raised 2x and got 4 callers.  Standard it seems at this venue.  Most stacks were between 20-40 B.B.    Flop was KcTc6s.  I checked planning to check shove flop.  Everyone checked behind.  Turn was 2s.  I led half pot and MP called.  Everyone else folded.  River was 3s.  I checked planning to call MP if he bet.  He shoved putting me all in.  I called and he had ATs.  Game over.  In hindsight I think I should have definitely bet large on flop calling off one player if shoved on and folding if anyone overcalled.  Then shoved turn if anyone flats my flop bet (unless a spade falls).  Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.

Foucault

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October 25, 2017 - 9:29 am
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Not necessarily saying your analysis is wrong, but I think it would help you to elucidate the advantages and disadvantages of various lines. In other words, what does betting flop accomplish? What does check-raising accomplish? What does check-calling river accomplish? Where does the value come from in these various scenarios?

Remember that there are basically two sources of value: causing opponents to fold when they have a chance to win the pot, and causing them to put money into the pot when you are a favorite to win it. Try to be as specific as you can about which hands will call a bet, which will bet if you check, etc.

Reg_u_l8t0r
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October 25, 2017 - 3:40 pm
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Thanks for the great feedback.  Much appreciated.

Reg_u_l8t0r
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October 25, 2017 - 6:05 pm
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So to correctly think about lines to play would be to think something like “ok, it’s a very wet flop, I can’t afford to check and should bet on the larger side to discourage too many callers and I will get plenty of value from all Kx hands, most draws and some Tx”.  If shoved on I will have to call as I’ll be ahead against most hands that will shove there at the stack depth we’re playing.  If a blank comes on turn the best line is to shove to deny equity to draws and get max value from Kx hands that probably won’t fold.  How’s that sound?

Foucault

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October 26, 2017 - 9:28 am
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I like most of it, particularly the parts where you are very specific about what hands will call/fold. “Discourage too many callers”, on the other hand, is vague. Bet sizing isn’t simply a dial where you can “tune” it up or down to decide how many calls you want. People mostly call when they connect with the board and fold when they don’t – your bet size makes a difference only at the margins. So think instead about which hands will or won’t call a bet and how that will affect you.

“I can’t afford to check” could also use some substantiation. I think what you mean is that a scenario where the flop checks around will be bad for you. Not saying you’re wrong, but it’s worth thinking about how likely that scenario is and how bad it will be for you. After all, the upside of checking is that you will sometimes get to check-raise; how good is that for you, and why?

Reg_u_l8t0r
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October 27, 2017 - 12:03 am
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Makes a lot of sense.  Playing to check raise was initially the plan because the guy directly to my left was very aggro post flop and was taking stabs at lots of pots (and winning).  However, I’d already taken the same line with AA against an hour earlier and doubled against him so was silly to take the same line twice.  Checking was worst option because (a) check raising again turns my hand face up and I’m probably only getting called by 2 pair or better and folding out all draws and (b) all the likely hands calling behind will be medium pairs, broadways and suited connectors. All of which will be super happy to see a free turn card and realise their equity.  About the only hands that I beat that may bet/stack off to a check raise are KQ and KJ.  So I’m either called by better or fold out most other hands.  Betting larger on flop gives my max value from all hands I beat that will continue and allows me to get stacks in on turn if no clubs fall.

This is great mate.  Even if what I say above is complete rubbish at least you have shown me how to think more thoroughly about when, why and how to bet.  Obviously with more practice, learning and discussion my thoughts will improve!

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