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July 7, 2012
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I'm writing this purely based on my observations no scientific study or articles. A few weeks ago I was on a hot streak, playing well and aggressively, hitting big draws and taking people off pots. Then I had a mini down swing but that finished with another good win. However, since then I've been on a more significant downswing where little seems to be working for me. My big hands arent holding, my moves arent working, or I'm getting completely fished out on. During this time several things have become apparent to me about 'varience'. There seems to be more than one kind:-
1) Statistical varience – where you run a big hand into another big hand and either win or loose AK v AQ QQ v AK JJ v KK AA v KK etc both players thinking they have the best hand and getting it in. Both players making seemingly solid and +ev decisions based on whatever info they have. If your running good you quite often spike the 2 or 3 outter, when you run bad you lose whether you got it in ahead or behind.
2) Decision based varience;
– Your decisions
– Opponents decisions
Your (my) Bad decisions: When we're in a downswing it's very easy to blame everything on 'bad luck' when your AA gets cracked for the 3rd time in 30mins. However, when you look at other hands that you lost were you 'unlucky' or had you made one or series of bad decisions that 'made' your bad luck? heres an example hand of mine:-
Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t250.00/t500.00 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
jambeyang (CO): t24122.00 48.24 BBs
Aloysius P57 (BTN): t56765.00 113.53 BBs
Pendall (SB): t12966.00 25.93 BBs
Chikakaa (BB): t22700.00 45.40 BBs
Dafoulmouth (UTG): t50194.00 100.39 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t33420.00 66.84 BBs
kirik05 (UTG+2): t30606.00 61.21 BBs
NukeTheFish! (MP1): t22870.00 45.74 BBs
Kagesen (MP2): t8424.00 16.85 BBs
Pre Flop: (t750) Hero is UTG+1 with J
T
1 fold, Hero raises to t1122, kirik05 calls t1122, NukeTheFish! raises to t3045, 1 fold, jambeyang calls t3045, 3 folds, Hero calls t1923, kirik05 calls t1923
Flop: (t12930) Q
9 8 (4 players)
Hero bets t8500.00, kirik05 folds, NukeTheFish! folds, jambeyang raises to t21027, Hero calls t12527
Turn: (t54984) K
(2 players)
River: (t54984) 8 (2 players)
Final Pot: t54984
jambeyang shows Q Q
Hero shows J T
jambeyang wins t55434.00
(Rake: t-450)
So, The question is was I unlucky and on the downside of varience or did I generate my own bad luck? I felt unlucky at the time but looking back over it I would now say that I generated my own bad luck in this hand. The 3bet from 'NukeTheFish' I felt was a position squeeze and could be light, my plan was to 4bet and fold to furhter action or if flatted I had a hand that flops well so I could take it from there. However, 'jambeyang' flatting behind the 3bet scuppered that plan. The alarm bells where ringing a little at this point. I should have scrapped the whole plan and mucked my hand and waited for the next spot. Afterall I was 67bbs deep and in good shape. Instead, i stubbenly decided to play a marignal hand OOP in an inflatted pot. When I flop the nut str8 on a monotone board, and I'm out of position what do I do? Theres a big pot at stake but 3 to act behind. As its approx 14:1 to flop a made flush i figure that there is a reasonably good chance my hand is good at this point. I decide to lead out. Another bad decision i think given stack sizes as any of the other players with a pair and flush / str8 draw are now fully priced in e.g hands like QJ Jh, AJ with a heart KQ etc or even worse JT with a heart, and I am committed to calling. I get jammed on by one player and I have to call. He rivers a boat with Top set and I feel immensely unlucky. However, had I just folded this spot preflop (the smart decision) none of this would have happened. Why did I make the decision to call preflop? because I was tiliting due to a string of bad beats to retard plays on other tables and therefore compounded the feeling of being on the negative side of varience. But in this particular instance i generated the situation myself.
Bad Decisions by Opponents: – These situations I think are the most tilting, your opponent makes a series of bad decisions, hits his miracel out on rvr and gets rewarded for the awful play, and then probably gloats about it as he spews off your hard won chips to the rest of the table. Here is a great example that got me hitting the punch bag. The thing that gets me about this hand is the number of BBs he jams on the turn???????
Cake Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t/t60.00 Blinds – 7 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
abacus37 (MP): t2838.00 47.30 BBs
stoopkid1 (CO): t918.00 15.30 BBs
Senior_Smoke (BTN): t6006.00 100.10 BBs
MUDASUKA (SB): t3155.00 52.58 BBs
ShadowProphe (BB): t3248.00 54.13 BBs (He is actually UTG not BB and the opener in the hand – not sure what happened here)
Louise56 (UTG): t3589.00 59.82 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t2597.00 43.28 BBs
Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is UTG+1 with A A
ShadowProphe raises to t120, 1 fold, Hero raises to t296, 4 folds, ShadowProphe calls t176
Flop: (t652) 7 9 5 (2 players)
ShadowProphe checks, Hero bets t415.00, ShadowProphe calls t415
Turn: (t1482) J (2 players)
ShadowProphe bets t2537.00, Hero calls t1886 all in
River: (t5254) 6 (2 players – 1 is all in)
There is a chance that he has flopped a set or the str8 with 86 but the play is SO SPAZY i feel i just cant fold here. So, he makes 3 bad decisions, he opens UTG with garbage, calls the 3bet, floats the flop when completely wiffed, then open jams 45ish BBs on the turn with a 4 high flush draw? Is this really varience? I'll take these spots everyday of the week dont get me wrong. I can only assume this is some weird bluff line and he thinks I have AK?
CONCLUSION
If you have a run of 'normal' negative varience i.e. big hands losing to big hands, and in turn or during the same period have a string of beats due to your opponents bad decisions this is very demoralising. This in turn, if you're not careful, can lead to you making bad decisions and compounding the downswing and negative varience issue. At these times we really need to take a step back and ask, is this really a smart decision / play, or am I getting myslef into a bad spot and making matters worse?
November 12, 2012
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Few people realize how many forms of variance there are in this game, and just how bad or good things can go. That’s why it can be really tough to get better at poker sometimes…. if you cant comprehend a concept, or don’t even notice it, how can you fix mistakes relating to it?
Running bad is a blessing in disguise. It’s really frustrating and discouraging (I’m running terribly right now too) but what you have to realize is that its a means of exposing your mistakes/weaknesses. Ideally you should be critical and skeptical of every play you ever make, but its hard to do that completely objectively and with a good work ethic unless you’re running bad and having terrible results. It forces you to review at least some hands and break down assumptions you have about your strategy in various situations. Tracking software is amazing for showing you areas of your game that are really profitable or really unprofitable.
Aliases: drx975 (Stars/FTP), donkrx (Merge)
May 30, 2012
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-seat draw variance
-late stage flip variance, losing a 55/45 on the final table loses a ton more equity that average flip
-running better at lowest spectrum of your ABI
-running into the top of peoples ranges
there are def more i just need to think about it
November 12, 2012
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Also something I think that should be mentioned…. when things aren't going well, you should try as hard as you can to NOT BLAME VARIANCE. Always be skeptical of your own play…. dont just go looking through your database for all-in pots you lost. Whenever you try to make yourself feel better you're just doing yourself a disservice. Ultimately you have to grow up, be a mature poker player and admit that you're not as good as you thought. Then you can start getting better.
Aliases: drx975 (Stars/FTP), donkrx (Merge)
October 6, 2010
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being card dead is a form of variance too – not just your aces holding when you get them, but getting them in the first place!
November 19, 2012
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Flop textures is a pretty big form of variance. Cbets/3bets that arent working because your opponents are connecting can be a really frustrating form of variance, especially late in MTTs with like 30 bigs.
July 7, 2012
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bennymacca said:
being card dead is a form of variance too – not just your aces holding when you get them, but getting them in the first place!
This can be compounded by seat draw as well, if you have an aggro player in front who is opening all off what could have been your steal spots and there is nothing you can do because you have 3 or 4 palyers left behind to act.
July 7, 2012
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TiltedEV said:
Flop textures is a pretty big form of variance. Cbets/3bets that arent working because your opponents are connecting can be a really frustrating form of variance, especially late in MTTs with like 30 bigs.
Yeah, immensley frustraing when you have a Big A and looking for some real action, but intead you get flatted in a couple of spots and the board comes out 68T with a flush draw. Actually, if you are in this spot and say UTG+1 and get flatted by CO and SB, and SB checks, how would you proceed? Cbet, check give up, or float if CO bets and SB folds? In a recent Vid Daveyt86 takes an interesting line in this spot and actualy check raises the late position bet after the player in the blinds folded.
October 9, 2012
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Turbulence said:
TiltedEV says-
Yeah, immensley frustraing when you have a Big A and looking for some real action, but intead you get flatted in a couple of spots and the board comes out 68T with a flush draw. Actually, if you are in this spot and say UTG+1 and get flatted by CO and SB, and SB checks, how would you proceed? Cbet, check give up, or float if CO bets and SB folds? In a recent Vid Daveyt86 takes an interesting line in this spot and actualy check raises the late position bet after the player in the blinds folded.
I like the check raise line myself and use this line pretty regularly if i'm deep enough. If, for instance, the CO does raise, he's asking a question of the SB on your behalf and you haven't committed any more chips. If he gets a fold you can go through with the stronger looking C/R to try and get the CO off the pot. However, if the SB flats or raises it becomes an easy fold. The C/R line also gives you a much stronger 2 barrel bluff line if flatted by CO on flop and you still have the chance of hitting on the turn or river if you're behind. It also keeps you in the pot more often, as a donk bet here can easily get 3bet by either player and life starts getting tricky with Ace high.
July 7, 2012
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Muttley66 said:
Turbulence said:
TiltedEV says-
Yeah, immensley frustraing when you have a Big A and looking for some real action, but intead you get flatted in a couple of spots and the board comes out 68T with a flush draw. Actually, if you are in this spot and say UTG+1 and get flatted by CO and SB, and SB checks, how would you proceed? Cbet, check give up, or float if CO bets and SB folds? In a recent Vid Daveyt86 takes an interesting line in this spot and actualy check raises the late position bet after the player in the blinds folded.
I like the check raise line myself and use this line pretty regularly if i'm deep enough. If, for instance, the CO does raise, he's asking a question of the SB on your behalf and you haven't committed any more chips. If he gets a fold you can go through with the stronger looking C/R to try and get the CO off the pot. However, if the SB flats or raises it becomes an easy fold. The C/R line also gives you a much stronger 2 barrel bluff line if flatted by CO on flop and you still have the chance of hitting on the turn or river if you're behind. It also keeps you in the pot more often, as a donk bet here can easily get 3bet by either player and life starts getting tricky with Ace high.
I've actually used this a few times myself since, and it's proved quite effective. It totally blindsides villain as he just doesnt see it coming. half the time I think they actually fold a better hand because the line is soo strong and not expected.
February 22, 2013
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bennymacca said:
being card dead is a form of variance too – not just your aces holding when you get them, but getting them in the first place!
Or just getting them in the BB when everybody folds or when the blinds are just 20/10
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