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May 31, 2012
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This hand occurred while 3 handed on the final table of the $10 rebuy 20k gtd on Ipoker. 2 Hands previous I doubled the villain up 3bet jamming 66 into his btn min raise with 1010 for <20bb effective. Throughout the final he seemed to be happy to let me steal away never 3bet jamming his 20bb stack or playing back when there were 2 other shorties (10-15bbs) on the table. Although this info is relevant he is a winning reg in these games that may be opening up now once he has a stack that can really damage me. His hem stats for me are 15/12/6.
The payours are 1) $3.7k 2) $2.7k 3) $2k
IPoker, $10 Buy-in (14,000/28,000 blinds, 2,800 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
SB: 1,078,606 (38.5 bb)
BB: 367,644 (13.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): 1,628,250 (58.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9
9
[color=”red”]Hero raises to 56,000[/color], [color=”red”]SB raises to 154,000[/color], [color=”grey”]BB folds[/color], [color=”red”]Hero ??[/color],
February 18, 2013
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Because of the dynamic of the shortie only having 13bb I would call here as you have position and don't want to bloat the pot, you can evaluate the flop in position and call his cbet unless the board has 2 or 3 overs which you think smacks his range.
May 9, 2013
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3..7 k is much differnt then 2k..
my question is what was your plan with the nines . it couldnt just be to steal the blinds eh ?
you already invested 2 bbs, and the pot is 9bbs so you can call with the intent to check fold ,, leaving you 30 bbs for pushing and folding. .
my first gut when reading this was to shove over, steal the pot for 9bbs increase to your stack,, willing to flip agianst broadway, and only dominated by pairs which now and then we may suck out.
what does anyone think of that move ?
July 6, 2012
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flatting or folding seems too weak in this spot. I am 4 betting almost every time in this spot. if he 5 bet piles on us, then we possibly fold for ICM reasons. But it would be a sigh fold at best.
August 23, 2012
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I see merit to calling, 4b jamming, and 4b inducing. Calling can allow us to avoid getting it in vs TT+ although we will likely lose some on the flop or stack them if we hit a set. 4b jamming puts maximum pressure on SB because of the short stack in the BB. 4b inducing is high variance, but if we have history that he is capable of 5b bluff shoving then I like this play the best. We might be able to get him to spazz out with Axs and small pairs. Folding is not an option in my opinion.
The best play in this spot is very read dependent. With your reads I would 4b shove or call. He is unlikely to be induced to shove light, but we will likely fold out some of the hands we are flipping with by shoving because of ICM. If you really think his 3b is nutted then I would just flat the 3b and play some poker.
January 27, 2013
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I tried to follow the steps taken by Merby in his MTT Math Video series. He actually addresses the shove/fold part of this exact situation but with different stack sizes and payouts.
If you assume villain only opens with hands he will call to a shove, by my math, you are positive $EV (ICM) if you jam, unless villain only plays his top 12% of hands (77+, A9s, ATo, KTs, KJo, QTs, JTs) or tighter.
In reality, villain is likely opening more than what he will call a shove with, so you have some fold equity.
If villain only calls a jam with top 10% of hands, then he needs to be opening at least 13% to make a shove positive $EV.
Likewise, if he only calls a jam with top 5% of hands, then he needs to be opening at least 14% to make a shove +EV.
You stated he was hesitant to open earlier, but might be opening wider now. If you feel he is opening 20%-30% on the BTN when 3 handed, I think you can comfortably shove.
Calling is much harder to calculate. I think calling is reasonable, and dependent on your post flop confidence.
Folding costs you about $20 of $EV by my calcs. Not recommended, but probably superior to flatting and folding to a C-bet on an ugly flop.
July 3, 2010
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kingten102 said:
flatting or folding seems too weak in this spot. I am 4 betting almost every time in this spot. if he 5 bet piles on us, then we possibly fold for ICM reasons. But it would be a sigh fold at best.
Exactly.
99 rates to be the best hand a ton here but overcards flop so frequently that you can get into an expensive guessing game post-flop if you don't hit set.
It's almost a reverse implied odds hand because so many broadways will either flop or show up by the river and we can easily give away the best hand by doing something like checking for pot control.
I'm not even sure 4b/fold is the correct decision here but as I am thinking about it in this moment, we're at least putting all the pressure back on villain and he should never be hooding OOP with a weird hand in this particular if he's any good.
Folding pre is out. Jamming pre is out.
4b/calling off seems bad vs his get it in range.
May 31, 2012
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Thanks for the replies so far. Will post up what happenned later today.
May 30, 2012
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my first instinct was 4b gii.. hes got a stack now that can damage us and is gtd 2k so like pretty much most of us will widen his 3bet range.. if we lose we still have 20bbs
but the more i think about it ICM wise i agree with kingten and FkCoolers and 4b/f for ICM reasons – if we are going to 4b/f then our sizing should obv be on the smaller click-back side
kinda torn between the two tbh
calling isnt optimal, too weak/passive, we're not deep enough to set mine and too many tough spots come up post flop
August 23, 2012
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I would NEVER EVER EVER 4b/fold this spot with 99. We can choose so many other hands in our range to 4b/fold that are not strong enough to call and have at least one blocker: Ax, Kx. Of course we will have tough spots playing 99 postflop, but that's poker. We should have a just calling range and mid pairs are great candidates for including in that range. It will help us play against villain so he cannot just barrel us off on low boards because we can actually have overpairs or a pair other than a Q on Q52r. We don't need odds to set-mine when we have the best hand so much of the time. You guys seem too afraid to play postflop.
July 3, 2010
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I think we just prefer picking hands that play better on multiple streets vs. capable opponents and don't look too face up in a vacuum …
May 31, 2012
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Thanks for the responses lads. I'm glad a few people have suggested the line that I took because a few players I know completely disagreed with my line. I went with the 4bet to 270k and fold option. I didn't think this player was going to 5bet light with another player on such a small stack and felt if I flatted eventhough I had position I would be playing a guessing game post flop.
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