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June 2, 2012
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Blinds 50-100 (2nd level)
Jamie (22k)
Me (20k)
Table dynamic: Everyone was playing tight aggressive and no one was getting out of line in the first level. Jamie was on my immediate left and had been playing more pots than most; opening hands in position and also had 3b a few times. I had opened twice BvB against Jamie and he flatted. I lead flop both times and he folded. My image was tight/solid and I hadn’t shown down any hands.
The hand: I’m UTG with AdKs and open to 250. Jamie makes it 750 UTG+1. It’s rather tough for me to put Jamie on a range here because he’s been fairly active but based on my solid image I really don’t think he’s getting too out of line here especially UTG+1. I think an accurate range would be 99+ AQ+ and also suited connectors and 1 gappers (although not as likely) because he shown down a suited gapper in a 3b pot earlier. It folds to me. Since he has been fairly active so I decide folding is out of the question… against a nit I honestly might just fold this pre ante OOP because a majority of the time we will be check folding the flop. Plus the odds of us actually winning a huge pot isn’t likely. 4b is bad because it’s pre ante and I’m OOP and if he 5b I obv have to fold, if he flats we now just bloated the pot and have to play OOP. I decide to flat. Flop comes A93sss. Great flop for me. I check. Jamie c-bets 1000 into a pot of 1650. I’m obv never folding and I feel like raising is bad as we are never getting it in against worse here unless he goes nuts with AxQs plus by flatting we keep worse hands in his range and I think he’s def capable of barreling. I flat. Turn Kh. I check and Jamie bets 3000 into a pot of 3650. At this point I feel like I can accurately narrow his range to AA,KK,99, AxQs, suited spade connectors (possible but unlikely) and I guess occasionally he has air. It’s a tough spot because based on that range of hands I’m essentially drawing to a spade or A,K but I really thought he was capable of barreling with air. I call. River Qd. I check and Jamie bets 5k. I’m not going to say what I did or my thought process on the river. Looking for feedback on the hand and what you would do on the river and I’ll post the results later. Also if I have AK with no spade does our line change on the flop/turn?
May 30, 2012
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WOW, lol. Did he tell you, “I'll show you what I have.” like he did during his WSOP main win run. sure, he could have AA or 99, I wouldn't be shocked if he flipped over QJss because of his rep. I think I'm calling the riv bet like 80% of the time…… Is he really going to 3bet you with 99 utg+1, hmmmmmm, if he has AA, oh well. Your feel for his cards is the real tell………. I say I would call now, but if he was playing good cards and we saw a few of them, it's tough. But in my mind if he's been active and shown some wacky cards, I'm calling a bunch of the time. I will say that this riv bet has been a leak for me in teh past……….. So, just what I'm thinking. Like the way you played it and your explanation. You poker beast……………..
July 20, 2012
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Really like your thought process here.
From his sizing on the turn I think he was betting to protect his hand, which would be either a set (aces or maybe 99s), AK or a small flush on the few occassions he 3bets you pre light. There’s a reasonable chance that he checks back with KK on that flop (with no flush draw) though he may also cbet it. It’s hard to imagine that he had air the whole way here, though obviously he is a very capable player.
You have to call 5k into a pot of about 15k so he would need to be light here 1/4+ of the time, which I serioulsy doubt he is. But AK makes up 4 combinations of his 9 total likely value hand combinations (AK, AA, KK and 99). You are getting 1.5 to 1 calling to chop so he would need to have AK more than 40% of the time to make that profitable. We know that he has AK about 45% of the time and add to that the small chance he is bluffing. and I think a call is profitable. He will also have a flush sometimes, though given that yours was an ep open in level 1 I think it's pretty rare and less than the 5% buffer so if the maths holds up then a call is profitable.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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pretty interesting spot. I like running's analysis here and I think I do call although Im not sure how stoked I am about it. I have not seen enough of Jamie's play as of late to know if he is gonna be running a huge bluff here that often. but he could even be value betting worse here some times. obviously let the discussion go a bit, but im pretty excited to see what you did and perhaps what he has. 
July 13, 2012
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I cant find the fold btn!! I like your analisys btw! Well played imo until then.
July 30, 2012
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I like your thought process as well pre-flop, flop and turn….Very tough spot on the river but the fact that he is capable of blowing up and random things…I prob call as your hand is under-repped in his mind at least…Could he be value betting worse, AQ….possible, obv I think you are chopping a lot…interesting hand though.
June 23, 2012
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Im not loving it, but im calling. Is he 3betting AQ or 99 from utg+1 pre ante?
Unless he's on a bluff which i dont think he is, id put him on AK, AA, possibly KK. After you check the river, he could value bet AQ, just not sure its in his 3bet pre ante range.
June 19, 2012
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I probally play it exactlly how you did. Just because the amount of blockers there are though I would think its unlikely he has AA/KK im sure he probally flats AQ some of the time and would be supprised if he value bets on the river its pretty thin 
. What do you guys think about QQs playing this way?
June 2, 2012
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Don't really think he plays QxQs this way as he probably will be checking back turn with that hand. Another thing that I didn't mention was after I thought for awhile and called the turn bet he says “Wow, nice hand.” Then when I tanked on the river he started talking to me saying things like “Tough decision huh?” “Did you river a set of queens?” I won't say how I perceived these comments… I'll let you guys elaborate a little more before I reveal the results of the hand!
Also does our line change without the Ks in this spot? I'd be interested to see what you guys think about that.
October 6, 2010
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Now this is an excellent spot to discuss. Will try and give my thoughts later when I am not in the phone but I really like this hand
May 30, 2012
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This is a pretty cool spot
I think the moment that defines his hand the most is his turn bet
by that i mean, we give him a range pre, and it pretty much doesnt change at all after he c-bets. but when he bets turn that big doesnt it look like hes protecting his hand? and add to this the fact that he starts talking to you when you call.. he appears strong to this street..
You narrowed his turn range to AA KK 99 AxQs and occasionally air.. and its pretty standard these days for OR to chk behind turn with weak made hands and other middling rubbish to get to showdown on scary boards like this..
So I just think it looks like he has a strong hand here more often than not.. but as we all know, he loves (or loved) to bluff so much and show those bluffs… so that actually balances some of his range toward air in this spot.. making this a pretty tough call
Having the Ks chops his KK combos in half, and removes 3 combos of AK pre which is obv better for us by the river..
I still dont know what id do here.. live, id probs actually tank until i get time called and get as much physical information as i can for as long as i can.. the over actor may just flip his hand up with his mouth!!
June 2, 2012
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bump, obv.
October 6, 2010
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Just re-read the hand again, and honestly this is such a tough spot.
Do you think he ever does this with something like the Qs just to try and get you to fold what you have? It seems to me from Jamie’s point of view your range looks exactly like what you have. If you had a flush you would have raised at some point most likely, similarly with a set. So after flatting the 3bet pre your hand looks exactly like AK-AJ and most likely with a spade.
So really if you have a tag image he might think you will fold to a third barrel.
My guess he has a busted draw but he could also have T8ss or something too and you just got valuetowned.
Wow, this is a gross spot. I like your thought process preflop, but honestly i prefer to go ahead and 4bet and win the hand here or fold to a 5bet. I'd rather not play oop with main event champions, even if they are lol. Id make it big enough so that him flatting was unlikely. I am certain everyone will disagree with that, but thats how i would do it. As played, flop and turn are fine. Turn bet makes his range scary as ****. I'm learning towards c/f river. I would also go ahead and replay my own physical actions in my head and see if theres anything that made him decide that i could be folding. I think the only hand we beat in his value range is AxQs.
Although i recognize that flatting the 3bet will probably make us more money. So wp
May 30, 2012
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I don't think he's 3 betting you pre with 99 or aq especially being utg+1. I could see him 3 betting to iso in later postiion with these hands, but not very much from here. With a hand like 99 or a3ss/a9ss he should want the pot to go multiway this deep because it gives him a chance to win a really big pot, but if he 3 bets those hands hes usually folding out all worse. But it's Jamie Gold and he plays a bit unorthodox so we can't count it out i guess. He could be 3 betting suited 1/2 gappers and such. Flatting seems fine preflop. 4 betting isn't good for the reasons you already stated. Check calling flop is standard. The turn is interesting. I would give him a range of flushes, ak, kk-aa, and some air (albeit not much). I don't think hes betting 5/6 pot with aq, especially if he has a spade. axqs is like an autocheck behind. He has so much showdown value and doesnt have much to protect against since if you have the king of spades you most likely already have him beat. Its a pretty gross spot, and without the king of spades I think we should be check folding to that size bet. Its a close call even with it because we won't be making much/if any more money when another spade peels. On the river its really close because its only a half pot bet and I would expect him to go for more value with a set or a flush. Your range is capped at ak or maybe a set of 99 that you didnt raise, but either way aa/kk or a flush is way good. I don't know how much weight I give towards him having complete air, and I would have to be sitting next to him to pick up anything obviously. I probably just muck here knowing I'm calling 5k to win 4.8k most of the time.
June 2, 2012
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As I was tanking river he started talking to me saying things like “tough decision huh?” “did you river trip queens?” I perceived these comments as he didn't have the nuts (flush) but what he did have was a higher set than QQ which would be KK and AA. I ended up folding because I really thought he put me on exactly what I had and went for a small value bet on the river thinking that I would call. When I folded he showed AA! I really thought that the only hand I'm beating here is AxQs and I think he plays it the same way. Although he might check back turn. Was def an interesting spot. The main reason I posted this hand was to show you guys that getting information out of your opponent by talking to them is vital. I was uncertain what I was going to do but when Jamie started talking to me and based on his comments I knew I was going to fold. When I told him what I folded he couldn't believe it. In fact he was stunned, and I think it kind of tilted him.
Good discussion guys. Nice work.
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