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February 8, 2017
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Less than 20 hands played with Villain, seen one showdown which was played a bit passive/fishy but nothing egregious.
I might squeeze here preflop against many players but MP opener is a 13/10 reg who plays well postflop (ie. not a good target for light 3bets). Most of the postflop decisions seem pretty straightforward although the sizings could probably be better.
PokerStars – 15/30 Ante 4 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+1: 102.43 BB
MP+2: 102.9 BB
CO: 82 BB
Hero (BTN): 91.17 BB
SB: 90.77 BB
BB: 103.53 BB
UTG: 119.9 BB
UTG+1: 99.93 BB
MP: 108.57 BB
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has K
T
fold, fold, MP raises to 2.37 BB, MP+1 calls 2.37 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.37 BB, fold, BB calls 1.37 BB
Flop: (11.17 BB, 4 players) T
K
7
BB checks, MP checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 5.5 BB, BB calls 5.5 BB, fold, fold
Turn: (22.17 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets 15.37 BB, BB calls 15.37 BB
River: (52.9 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 38.1 BB, BB raises to 80.17 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
I have 30bb behind when villain jams.
November 28, 2015
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I wanna start by saying this is gross. Just when you think you’re ahead of someone….they shove! So this is a PKO. I haven’t had my coffee yet, could you explain some of the differences in how people play these compared to regular tournaments? Do people tend to shove on the river with the nuts more often?
Anyway, it seems like a gut check here. After ranging this guy in Flopzilla I don’t really know what story he’s trying to tell you other than the fact that you’re beat. You’re getting almost 7-1 on the call here but it doesn’t seem like you have enough equity against his river range.
This is the range I gave him to start the hand: JJ-22,AQo-A7o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s
I just don’t know what hand he’s bluffing with? He still has 19 combos of Flushes that got there on the river. 3 combos of straights. 4 combos of sets. I mean, you have his two pair range smoked. But that’s only 4 combos, 3 of which you chop. It’s hard for me to think of what hand makes sense for you to have for him to shove and get you off of either. You played your hand stronger than top pair! Then Villain shoves the river? Seems like someone is trying to get paid off here.
I think this is a fold.
February 8, 2017
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Agree that this is a fold vs an unknown. The limited info I have on villain suggests passivity, further discounting the chances that we see a bluff or a weaker value hand than ours. In-game, it felt disgusting to fold but my better sense eventually prevailed. Only burned half my timebank to finally get my mouse over the right button, in what seems like a clear fold with the benefit of hindsight.
Regardless of facing the check-raise, I think this hand was interesting to me because it feels like a stretch to come up with enough value target combos for my bet sizing. Betting ~70% pot on the turn, in particular, seems worse than either using larger or smaller sizing. It’s not quite large enough to truly polarize my range (or get stacks in play) but it’s not quite small enough to represent a more marginal value hand. Maybe I’m overthinking this but I’d love to get some opinions on that in particular.
PKOs do lead to bigger pots and wider ranges pre and post-flop. If you have someone covered, you have way more incentive to get stacks in the middle and give yourself a shot at their bounty. This has more of an effect in the mid to late game as bounties increase. It’s not rare by the final 3 tables for many of the bounties to dwarf the first few FT pay jumps. This particular hand is very early (only one player had a bounty larger than starting IIRC), so the play mostly resembles a normal tourney. It might widen the villain’s value shoving range but not nearly enough to affect our decision (if they are even adjusting to the format).
Doesn’t make much of a difference against unknowns but I’d be happier calling the shove vs a reg if the flop spade was either the T or the K rather than the 7. I’m tempted to dive into some combinatorics to test my reasoning but I don’t have the energy tonight.
November 28, 2015
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Starting with BB 2bet calling range: JJ-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s
With this range and the original board, you are looking at 6.94% equity against his river check raise. 4 combos of two pair (one that you beat). 7 combos of sets. 3 combos of straights. 22 combos of flushes.
I then changed the flop spade to the K of spades. Your equity spikes a little to 8.33%. This is because you now have 5 combos of two pair (one that you beat). 7 combos of sets. 3 combos of straights. 21 combos of flushes.
Last but now least, I changed the flop spade to the Ten of spades. Your equity now drops to 5.7%. 4 combos of two pair (one that you beat). 7 combos of sets. 3 combos of straights. 21 combos of flushes.
I don’t think it’s the flop spade that matters much. When I originally decided to mess around with these simulations, I was under the assumption that changing the Ten to spades would give the villain As Td/c combos to bluff river with. Now, I don’t see much of a difference in changing the K or the T other than that extra 1.39% with the K of spades from that extra chop combo you picked up from villains river two pair range and 1 less flush combo.
Anyway, let me know what you were thinking here or if we were thinking around the same lines.
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