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Ok been talking about this hand with some buddies as I thought it was kinda interesting.
History with villain, I came into FT a big CL and lost a flip and got pwned by villain where I 4 bet light and he 5 bet (think he was light actually but w/e).
That was 9 handed, since then I have tightened up a ton and so has villain. he is a winnign player ($100k profit) and the only other competent player left.
He reships for approx 20bb (in game i actually thought it was more like 23bb), my buddies are snap calling this.
PokerStars Game #47408595786: Tournament #294387077, $25.00+$2.50 USD Hold'em No Limit – Level XXVII (2500/5000) – 2010/07/29 1:14:16 WET [2010/07/28 20:14:16 ET]
Table '294387077 7' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: buffyslayer1 (244244 in chips)
Seat 3: Mattzord (100528 in chips)
Seat 4: QJ 27 (106322 in chips)
Seat 5: floorballs (322870 in chips)
Seat 7: squid300 (132036 in chips)
buffyslayer1: posts the ante 1000
Mattzord: posts the ante 1000
QJ 27: posts the ante 1000
floorballs: posts the ante 1000
squid300: posts the ante 1000
QJ 27: posts small blind 2500
floorballs: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to buffyslayer1 [Ks Qh]
squid300: folds
buffyslayer1: raises 6250 to 11250
Mattzord: raises 88278 to 99528 and is all-in
QJ 27: folds
floorballs: folds
buffyslayer1:??
also not sure if there many ICM considerations as well in the call?
What range do you think he is shoving here?
You have to call 88278 into 123278, so your getting 1.4:1 on the call, so you need like 42% equity to be breakeven cEV.
Against this range you are slightly profitable to call, by like a SB worth.
Assuming he flats AA/KK
July 3, 2010
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guitey said:
Against this range you are slightly profitable to call, by like a SB worth.
Assuming he flats AA/KK
QQ-22, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQoYou will still have 30bbs if you call and lose, but saying that if you just r/f you still have 50bbs and are in good shape and have set up an image that you will r/f so you can open a bit tighter planning to r/c the reship stacks.
If he's good he should also be shipping AA and KK with that stack size to not make his hand transparent. I think in this specifc situation I fold so I don't potentially double up the only good player left and drop to 20 bb myself. We have a very healthy stack and can abuse the weaker players remaining instead of getting into a flip here.
Thoughts? Bad line of thinking by me here?
No I do think fold is best here, there will be better spots, it's really marginal cEV so I think it will be -$EV from looking at it.
In a $27.50 MTT I think a good player will flat AA/KK in spots like this where he can be squeezed behind and players will be r/f alot so will be straight folding to a reship which is why he can reship weaker hands here. Im not saying they will everytime but its just worth thinking about.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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I'm in the fold camp as well. Can't see him doing this with a worse K really which really impairs your EV. Even if we get to neutral there's $EV to account for and that swings it to a def fold for me.
I think it might be a diff story if you were opening button into his blind or sb into his bb but here in early position I can't see you being ahead. There's really not much you beat and almost nothing that you dominate,
unless you have a read on the guy that he's doing this with an absolutely ridiculous wide range then just fold.
You're also in such a comfortable chip position that I don't think taking what looks like a huge flip at best is a good idea when you can probably coast to top 3.
RonFezBuddy said:
I'm in the fold camp as well. Can't see him doing this with a worse K really which really impairs your EV. Even if we get to neutral there's $EV to account for and that swings it to a def fold for me.
this 100%
with a quick look at chip stacks this is an easy icm fold I think. On the flip side if he knows you are competent and he is too, then he should be jamming v wide here knowing you are still opening a decent amount but have a tiny calling range to the shove.
Mattzord is a good friend of mine and actually a member of this site. I'll make him aware of his topic. He will be def shoving you light, but I don't think you can call this, considering the ' ok' structure of this tournament and the fact that there are 3 shortstacks at your table.
There can be said that it's worth the risk, because you will lose a strong opponnent if he wins. On the other hand if he doubles your days are over. I tend to fold, but it's close. He will shove with a super wide range.
I'm quite sure AA and KK are also in his range, as he is very active and will balance his 3bet shove range for sure.
I would def. be calling against myself.. because:
– My range is super wide there ( any pair, 89s+, J10o +, flatting AA/KK would be rediculous in this spot cause that looks way stronger than repushing, and he knows.
– there are big ante's
– the blinds were very very tight
– because of your stack.
WP buffyslayer, liked your game
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