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(1 votes) 
June 25, 2013
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So my friend was playing a $10r rush on FullTilt. Situation is 3handed final table, Hero has like 42bbs, 2nd has 37bbs, and 3rd has 15bbs. Hero is in BB with AKo. Action is shortstack jams button, other guy instarejams… He couldnt give me any real reads on the players. I dont think the shortys range is important but what about the SB? Initially I said thats alot to reshove, if you think you have an edge you shouldnt take this spot, because you can still crush him HU. Then there was a discussion about what the instarejam range is… I think fish would think a few seconds and flat monsters AA KK QQ maybe AK or JJ and instarejam like 77-JJ, AK, AQ. What would a good player do in this spot if they were the SB? I initially thought reshove to make it look weak with monsters but are you losing value shoving so much?And shouldnt you reshove alot of your calling range anyways? He folded and I am thoroughly confused…I guess my argument was not to take a flip when you have a skill edge BUT its AK WTF….HELP
October 21, 2012
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I think he can have AJ and AQ in his range so I'd call.
June 27, 2013
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Yea fist pump snap call
October 6, 2010
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do you happen to know what the payouts were for first/second/third?
this seems to me like it could easily be a fold due to ICM considerations, particularly if first place is triple third place money for instance.
May 30, 2012
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I agree w/ Benny. ICM has to come in to play. I might/prob fold hoping the shorter stack gets knocked out plus, I agree with Loxxii, one has Aj-AK. so I think one of them has my hand or we are sharing cards. I think it depends on the money .
June 25, 2013
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bennymacca said:
do you happen to know what the payouts were for first/second/third?
this seems to me like it could easily be a fold due to ICM considerations, particularly if first place is triple third place money for instance.
Not exactly sure but I just checked OPR for similar tourneys and it seems like 1st is a little more than double 3rd. I also think that if you are 3handed with 2 other KILLERS whom you definately have no edge against then this is an easy call and you take your chances. But when you have a clear edge in skill…???and if it is a fold what is the bottom of our calling range JJ or QQ?
October 6, 2010
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ok, so i chucked into a couple of different scenarios into the nash calculator, and came up with some pretty interesting results.
with a 50-30-20 payout structure looks like the calling range is 99+, AQs, AKo assuming they are shoving and reshoving correctly.
if i change it to a 44/33/22 payout structure, it changes to TT+, AKs which would make it a fold!!
as i said above the actual payout structure seems to matter a bit.
as you have pointed out, i think it really does depend on what you think your edge is against the players, given you are still pretty deep. if the other players are pretty good i think its a call, if you think you have a decent edge over them then i really dont mind a fold, as crazy as it sounds.
ICM Nash Calculator Results
| Level | 500/1000/100 |
|---|---|
| Structure | 50% 30% 20% |
| Players | 3 |
| Runtime | 6ms [300 Iterations] |
| Player | Stack | Push% | EQPre | EQPost | EQDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BU | 15000 | 23.1% | 27.61% | 27.75% | +0.140% |
| SB | 37000 | 39.7% | 36.51% | 36.39% | -0.122% |
| BB | 35000 | 35.88% | 35.87% | -0.018% |
| PU | CA | OC | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| BU | 23.1%, 22+ A2s+ A9o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ T8s+ 98s | ||
| SB | 8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+ | ||
| BB | 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo | ||
| BB | 10%, 55+ A8s+ ATo+ | ||
| SB | 39.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K9o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 65s 54s | ||
| BB | 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+ |
| Level | 500/1000/100 |
|---|---|
| Structure | 44.4% 33.3% 22.2% |
| Players | 3 |
| Runtime | 5ms [300 Iterations] |
| Player | Stack | Push% | EQPre | EQPost | EQDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BU | 15000 | 18.6% | 28.76% | 28.95% | +0.192% |
| SB | 37000 | 80.1% | 35.84% | 35.77% | -0.068% |
| BB | 35000 | 35.40% | 35.28% | -0.124% |
| PU | CA | OC | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| BU | 18.6%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A2s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s | ||
| SB | 6.8%, 88+ AJs+ AJo+ | ||
| BB | 2.6%, TT+ AKs | ||
| BB | 8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+ | ||
| SB | 80.1%, 22+ Jx+ T2s+ T4o+ 92s+ 96o+ 84s+ 87o 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s | ||
| BB | 4.7%, 88+ AQs+ AKo |
June 25, 2013
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bennymacca said:
ok, so i chucked into a couple of different scenarios into the nash calculator, and came up with some pretty interesting results.
with a 50-30-20 payout structure looks like the calling range is 99+, AQs, AKo assuming they are shoving and reshoving correctly.
if i change it to a 44/33/22 payout structure, it changes to TT+, AKs which would make it a fold!!
as i said above the actual payout structure seems to matter a bit.
as you have pointed out, i think it really does depend on what you think your edge is against the players, given you are still pretty deep. if the other players are pretty good i think its a call, if you think you have a decent edge over them then i really dont mind a fold, as crazy as it sounds.
ICM Nash Calculator Results
Level 500/1000/100 Structure 50% 30% 20% Players 3 Runtime 6ms [300 Iterations]
Player Stack Push% EQPre EQPost EQDiff BU 15000 23.1% 27.61% 27.75% +0.140% SB 37000 39.7% 36.51% 36.39% -0.122% BB 35000 35.88% 35.87% -0.018%
PU CA OC Range BU 23.1%, 22+ A2s+ A9o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ T8s+ 98s SB 8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+ BB 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo BB 10%, 55+ A8s+ ATo+ SB 39.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K9o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 65s 54s BB 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+ ICM Nash Calculator Results
Level 500/1000/100 Structure 44.4% 33.3% 22.2% Players 3 Runtime 5ms [300 Iterations]
Player Stack Push% EQPre EQPost EQDiff BU 15000 18.6% 28.76% 28.95% +0.192% SB 37000 80.1% 35.84% 35.77% -0.068% BB 35000 35.40% 35.28% -0.124%
PU CA OC Range BU 18.6%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A2s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s SB 6.8%, 88+ AJs+ AJo+ BB 2.6%, TT+ AKs BB 8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+ SB 80.1%, 22+ Jx+ T2s+ T4o+ 92s+ 96o+ 84s+ 87o 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s BB 4.7%, 88+ AQs+ AKo
Wow thanks for that analysis Benny! It felt like bad fold and a bad call at the same time. I told my friend if he calls the guy turns over AA and if he folds he flips over AK or AQ or some mid pair. Turns out the guy rolled over KJs and my friend would have ended the tournament there cuz a King hit. So I felt partially responsible ( as he ended up getting 2nd) Guess its a clear call when you are up against a mongoloid who instaisos KJs with the chipleader left to act…lol donkaments
May 1, 2013
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even if i think i have edge i think im calling here as we do dominate hands hes shoving and u can lock it up right there but i do understand reasons to fold
March 3, 2013
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This is why I love TPE.
I'm like this is a snap, fist pump, shove, love life CALL all day everyday.
…..I read Bennys post ……
and I'm, errr, like, $hit its a fold – wow!
i dont think it has to be a fold at all. with the CL here you cannot possibly go bust in this hand, yet have an okay chance of ending the tournament right there.
benny's analysis shows that the AK call would be pretty much the borderline hand to call or fold *assuming they are shoving and isoing correctly* which my guess is they are not. i would guess 2nd to act's range is fairly capped as we block AA and KK and he likely wouldnt iso those types of hands (arguably JJ OR QQ either). think 2nd to act can show up with like A9o here in which case we are a heavy favorite to come out with at least second place money even if we get involved.
October 6, 2010
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MovesLikeDarvin said:
i dont think it has to be a fold at all. with the CL here you cannot possibly go bust in this hand, yet have an okay chance of ending the tournament right there.
benny's analysis shows that the AK call would be pretty much the borderline hand to call or fold *assuming they are shoving and isoing correctly* which my guess is they are not. i would guess 2nd to act's range is fairly capped as we block AA and KK and he likely wouldnt iso those types of hands (arguably JJ OR QQ either). think 2nd to act can show up with like A9o here in which case we are a heavy favorite to come out with at least second place money even if we get involved.
100% agree with all of this.
i dont think its a clear fold at all, but to be honest i think it is close to the borderline. and that will probably mean that it is not a big leak either way really.
November 14, 2012
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It is so hard to imagine folding AKo pre readless. The stats make it such a dominating hand, only really a dog against AA and KK. Which means you’re almost certain to be beating at least one of the players, which means you’re looking at 2nd place money worst case scenario, and you’re still in the tourney. And you know what they say about a chip and a chair…
July 3, 2010
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I think it's a call.
I also think the logic in the OP of an edge HU is something you really, really need to be sure of.
You'd be starting HU 52 bb vs. 42 bb in villain's favor if we fold and he knocks out the button.
There's not much of an edge in HU to begin with, and then throw in these stack sizes and the fact we're starting at a slight disadvantage …
November 14, 2012
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Excellent point fk, you just need to watch some of the live replay stuff on pokerstars.tv where some of the best players loose hu despite their clear skill edge when they are at a chip disadvantage. Way too easy to turn hu like this into a lottery type game.
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