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June 1, 2012
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Kind of unsure what the best line is here. The original raiser has been active through out, and is a good reg, looking back he was running 23/19 over 300 hands.
At the time of the hand, the villain who 3bet was running 10/5 with zero 3b % over 60 hands. I didnt get a chance to search for him on opr beforehand,
but when I searched after, he has over 700k in prizemoney.
The others at the table are weak players except for the button, but all have been run over by the original preflop raiser.
This may seem standard to some, but interested to hear any comments on whats the best line, cheers
Poker Stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400/t800 Blinds + t75 – 7 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG+1: BB = 49.9, t39915
MP: BB = 37.9, t30315
Hero (CO): BB = 37.4, t29890
BTN: BB = 11.1, t8902
SB: BB = 20.6, t16480
BB: BB = 13.3, t10673
UTG: BB = 79.1, t63279
Pre Flop: (t1725) Hero is CO with J
J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t1672, MP raises to t4000, HERO??
September 29, 2012
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This is a tough spot. I didn’t answer at first as I was hoping someone esle would go first, but no one has answered yet.
Anyway, we have a 3 bet from a nit. Granted only 60 hands on the nit, so his 3b % sample size is still too small to determine his range. But anyway, every option we have sort of sucks. We could fold and play safe but that seems nitty as hell. We could 3 bet, but folding nto 4 bet this shallow is spewy and if we flat, what are hoping for post flop? Me, I’d probably err on the side of nitty and safe and fold here. It seems as if his range is probably QQ+ and maybe AK and JJ if we are so lucky.
But then again, we are only 7 handed, a LAG opened and it could be a good spot for the nit to pcik up the pot by 3 betting light. But we don’t know this guy is good at the time of the hand. All we have are HUD stats which show him to be a nit. If we have the OPR infor during the hand it makes it much tougher for me.
We are not fairing well against villians range in MP who 3bet imo. I think its a fold.
May 30, 2012
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I think 4b/call everyone except the nitty 3better, and 4b/f v him
May 30, 2012
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OPR info makes this an easy 4b/c v everyone btw,
September 29, 2012
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duggs said:
OPR info makes this an easy 4b/c v everyone btw,
But at the time of this hand the OP did not have OPR on this guy. I agree that knowing his record opens his range up, but not knowing all we have a nitty HUD stats.
May 30, 2012
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I don’t think having 700k in prize money is a good statistic on its own. What is his profit? Over how many games? I know its a lot of prize money but we need more info than that. If we 4 bet we have to call the short stacks on the button and in the blinds, but I don’t think it would be a good 4b/c against the opener or 3 bettor unless we have a very active image and they think we are capable of being light here. Their get it in range here has us crushed except ak. We have 36% equity against qq+ and ak. Even if villain who 3 bet is a good reg it doesnt mean we can just 4b/c him. it still depends on our image and history with him (if any). If I was villain and had 3 bet 99-1010 or aq there is a pretty good chance i fold to a cold four to a player I don’t know at this point in the tourney.
With the info given by the hero I'm probably nit folding or 4 bet/calling everyone except raiser and 3 bettor. tough spot.
4bet/folding was mentioned to nit 3bettor. I don't think we should be 4bet/folding for a 1/3 of our stack. We have to fold or 4bet/call here, I think its a fold given the info the hero had real time.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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stacks are pretty perfect for the 3 bettor to be doing so…but even with that, his stats are so tight that i can't really see us being in great shape here a very high % ofthe time. I think based on that this is a fold.
July 11, 2012
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JJ isn't a great hand to 4b with intentions of folding to resistance.. just fold and wait for the shame to wear off
June 11, 2012
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well, good spot to analye.
lets assume that villain(CO) calls us only with QQ+,AK this means he calls with 34hands if all his cards are live. safely we can say it might be around 30hands due to card removal effects. if we shove over his 3bet we get called by OR with KK+ only which is 12hands if all live, i assume 10 for simplicity.
as we are 7handed and OR is raising from HJ his raising frequency might be as high as 30% or about 400hands. so we get only called by him 2.5% of the time. so i leave that out of the equation.
that means we are most of the time heads up against 10value hands in this spot.
to make it a break even shove villain needs to fold about 54% of the time which means we need to find another 11hands with what he is 3bet/folding.
looking at his stats only in this scenario is pretty risky. the problem with nitty stats is the following: its much more likely that a LAG or TAG cant play his style over 60hands especially deep in a tournament. He might have been short stacked or just card dead as hell while other players are raising frequently.
its much safer to use the stats the other way around meaning a guy who is running 29/23 over 60 hand is much more likely a LAG then a NIT on a card run. the reason is simple. A LAG just finds much easier 23% of hands to raise with compared to a nit.
in this spot we could even go further and do some Bayesian calculations what the probability is that villain(CO) really is a nit who is not 3betting more then for example 5% given the fact that he did not 3bet the last 60hands.
it all breaks down to:
i guess i stick it in.
cheers
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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the 3 bet just isnt 10 10 enough to justify moving forward, this is that spot in poker that takes mass discipline to muck but its only a world of pain imo
July 20, 2012
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Based on your reads at the time I definitely agree with most that this is a fold.
If you knew at the time that both were winning players then I would still fold this spot. It definitely means you fare better against their ranges, but only because of the bluffs in his range, you still lose to all his value range there (more so if he's a reg as he isn't 3betting 10 10). If you flatted this spot and utg didn't re-open action then you are now oop against 2 winning players with a vulnerable hand unsure of where you stand. If you 4bet then you fold out their air but have to fold to his 5bet (range is now crushing you with very few bluffs). So you are turning your JJ into a bluff there, and if they flat then you are still crushed and they are just trapping you.
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