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TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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This is the turbo 50r on FTP. There are 21 left and 18 pay. Even though I only have 10bbs as you can see my stack still has significant fold equity because everyone is shallow at this point in the tourney.
Villain has been pushing everyone around since getting his stack a little while ago. He's opened about 3 times in the last orbit in multiple positions. I wouldn't say he's been splashy and spewey but this is the size he's been opening and for the most part just taking it down PF. It just feels like bubble abuse to me so I'm going to give him a wide range here.
I'm not quit sure what range that means though. Is he opening like top 80% or is that ridic to assume?
Given whatever range we put him on what's our shoving range here? Even with our read do we tighten up given the bubble?
Full Tilt Poker Turbo $25K Guarantee (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1500/t3000 Blinds + t400 – 7 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
keledry (BTN): BB = 12.2, t36638
RonFezBuddy (SB): BB = 10.1, t30328
SkillVille (BB): BB = 8.0, t23940
derdings (UTG): BB = 27.8, t83317
baiter_77 (UTG+1): BB = 14.9, t44558
WERTHIT (MP): BB = 10.5, t31419
Yeshaya (CO): BB = 10.0, t29909
Pre Flop: (t7300) RonFezBuddy is SB with X X
derdings raises to t6666, 4 folds, RonFezBuddy?
Wow! I have the hardest times in determining ranges but I assume we're shoving over his open with 99+ Ajs+ Aqo+ and all connected suiters from 89. i maybe wayy off but im glad I was first to resopond to see how this gets chopped up.
bjizz
you could profitably shove almost any suited connector…56s and up i'd say. 89 is probably a little too nitty. I actually think you shove almost any 2.
you really still have to have the goods here. It's just a matter of if you think you're ahead of his opening range. His UTG range should be generally tighter, esp because he is commited to calling almost all of those stacks.
I'd probably shove 88+ and AQ+ and fold all other hands. You can find much better spots to open shove in this tournament when this player is not involved in the hand.
I like Wein's response.
He knows, you know he's been active and still has chosen to raise again. I would not loosen my range here.
I agree with Wein also…this guy has to know his image is kind of shot atm so we need a strong hand imo because he probably has something.
agrii with wein…..he is so dreamy…..and spot on
I agree with Wein also, mainly cuz he's way better than me…LOL. But seriously, if he has been abusing the bubble up to this point, I might expect him to have a hand this time because of something I read that Annette Obrestad had said. She was talking about how, when abusing the bubble or when down to 10BB and open shoving, that each time you do it and get away with it pre-flop, you have to tighten up your range each successive time you attempt it. Sooner or later he'll have it because he'll expect you'll think he won't so therefore he must when he gets called(if that makes any sense??).
MiguelCPA said:
I agree with Wein also, mainly cuz he's way better than me…LOL. But seriously, if he has been abusing the bubble up to this point, I might expect him to have a hand this time because of something I read that Annette Obrestad had said. She was talking about how, when abusing the bubble or when down to 10BB and open shoving, that each time you do it and get away with it pre-flop, you have to tighten up your range each successive time you attempt it. Sooner or later he'll have it because he'll expect you'll think he won't so therefore he must when he gets called(if that makes any sense??).
Maybe the villain knows the players know this and therefore keeps opening 😛
I might shove a little wider then 88+ and AQ+… Maybe from 66+ and ATs/AJo+ but it's debatable
July 3, 2010
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thomas12121 said:
MiguelCPA said:
I agree with Wein also, mainly cuz he's way better than me…LOL. But seriously, if he has been abusing the bubble up to this point, I might expect him to have a hand this time because of something I read that Annette Obrestad had said. She was talking about how, when abusing the bubble or when down to 10BB and open shoving, that each time you do it and get away with it pre-flop, you have to tighten up your range each successive time you attempt it. Sooner or later he'll have it because he'll expect you'll think he won't so therefore he must when he gets called(if that makes any sense??).
Maybe the villain knows the players know this and therefore keeps opening 😛
I might shove a little wider then 88+ and AQ+… Maybe from 66+ and ATs/AJo+ but it's debatable
Yeah, and villain is at the perfect table – there is not a single threatening stack in sight. I'd open every single pot until someone played back at me. Then I'd do it again.
I'd like to disagree w/ wein just cause everyone else is agreeing, but I cant….soo dreamy indeed
So RFB, what do you think his perception of your recent play has been? Have you been folding for a while so your image is a little tight, especially this close to the money? If he thinks you've been playing tight then he would have to be holding a premium hand (JJ+ or AK) in this spot to call a shove from you, right? You could probably jam any two but I'd say 77+ and AQ+
July 3, 2010
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He's g5crddethpunch said:
So RFB, what do you think his perception of your recent play has been? Have you been folding for a while so your image is a little tight, especially this close to the money? If he thinks you've been playing tight then he would have to be holding a premium hand (JJ+ or AK) in this spot to call a shove from you, right? You could probably jam any two but I'd say 77+ and AQ+
Our villain will be getting 2 to 1 on a call if we shove, though … and he won't want to raise/fold because then he loses the ability to do some serious bossing on the bubble.
If I were in RFB's spot I'd just steer clear of this guy since we don't have fold equity but I'd be jamming light into the other 10 BB stacks who might be hanging on for a mincash.
You just need to know who's playing scared money on the bubble and who has a short stack and is looking to gamble to make a real run.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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I played with him earlier and played well…he probably thinks i'm competent. I guess I agree with everyone but man I want to jam it in his face.
June 11, 2010
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I think you are just handcuffed here. I would like to assume he is light and widen up our range for shoving over him, but without a lot of evidence that is what he is doing you need to be packing some serious heat to get it done. Hardest part of this for me would be trying not to get frustrated and doing something spewy.
He is raising into a bunch of stacks that he should be calling after raising utg, but this close to the bubble he could be r/f a rly wide range here.
I ran some numbers giving him opening 38% of hands and calling our shove with 18.9% of hands. and giving us JQo for an example.
If he is raising and calling as these numbers say then this is a pretty clear shove. He needs to fold 31% of the time for us to break even against this range, but in this example he is folding 50% of the time giving us an edge.
These numbers may be off and if anyone wants to use different opening/calling ranges etc you can use this formula, I got this out of the rizen/apestyles/pearjammer vol 2 book.
Break even folding frequency
B=(LV-GH)/(P+LV-GH)*
B= break even folding frequency
P= size of pot before heros action
L= maximum loss
V= villains equity
G= maximum gain
H= heros equity
* Bear in mind that when using this formulayou can get negative numbers, but only if your equity is high enough against their rangewhere you want a call.
June 25, 2010
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I think he has to call almost everything he raises, so folding 30% of his opening range may be a little wishful. 10bb isn't enough to re-steal imo, so anytime a play a hand in your spot Ron, I just assume all the chips are going in. I just assume I have no fe, unless I have seen him raise fold similar stacks before. He is also opening UTG on lots of stacks he is committed to, so i feel like he has a hand that is good enough to call your shove with every time.
jshilling09 said:
I think he has to call almost everything he raises, so folding 30% of his opening range may be a little wishful. 10bb isn't enough to re-steal imo, so anytime a play a hand in your spot Ron, I just assume all the chips are going in. I just assume I have no fe, unless I have seen him raise fold similar stacks before. He is also opening UTG on lots of stacks he is committed to, so i feel like he has a hand that is good enough to call your shove with every time.
i think this is clearly bubble abuse. i think if we're picking the right spots he is r/f more than r/c.
bjizz
Yea that is just an example to kind of show, but if he is raising super wide becuz of bubble then he will be folding some hands to a shove because hands like K2s wont be getting the right price at 1.8-1. With every one using rly small raises now you dont get 2-1 on the 10-12bb reshoves so can r/f some of there weaker hands depending obv on image, table dynamics etc.
Not saying you should be reshipping light with these stacks or anything but its something worth thinking about with semi decent hands vs loose players.
June 25, 2010
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bjizzle44 said:
jshilling09 said:
I think he has to call almost everything he raises, so folding 30% of his opening range may be a little wishful. 10bb isn't enough to re-steal imo, so anytime a play a hand in your spot Ron, I just assume all the chips are going in. I just assume I have no fe, unless I have seen him raise fold similar stacks before. He is also opening UTG on lots of stacks he is committed to, so i feel like he has a hand that is good enough to call your shove with every time.
i think this is clearly bubble abuse. i think if we're picking the right spots he is r/f more than r/c.
bjizz
I don't think this can ever be true with a 25bb utg open and a 10bb stack reshove….. if the is raise folding more than raise calling in that spot there is something seriously wrong with him. I would never try a pure resteal with a 10bb stack because it is hugely -ev, that being said I agree with guitey in the fact that you can maybe add a little fe, maybe 10%-15% because he isn't getting 2-1 on a call, 1.8-1 still justifies almost every hand imo that he raises with utg. The only reason he may lay it down is the old he knows i know i have to call. That is what accounts for all the fe imo.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Ok let's reveal what I had. A6s. I did jam. I feel pretty bad after the responses but I think we should still do some math on his ranges to get to the bottom of why.
Let's give him a wide range assume he calls everything:
equity
Hand 0: 48.686% { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }
Hand 1: 51.314% { A6s }
I'm actually ahead here. No need to do any further math. So, is he opening wide? If so then how do we fold?
let's give him a tighter opening range (and he calls everything)
Hand 0: 53.290% { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 46.710% { A6s }
Still seems pretty close to me. Given 7300 chip overlay I don't think there is any further math to do, it's a shove.
let's give him a SUPER tighter opening range (and he calls everything)
Hand 0: 68.019% { 66+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 31.981% { A6s }
OK, you got me. Time to fold if this is the case.
Let's assume he opens wide but only calls premiums:
Hand 0: 68.019% { 66+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 31.981% { A6s }
Like in the example above, we're way behind here so we do need to do some math to examine the impact of FE. If he opens wide it's 40% of hands (the range from the first example in this analysis) and calls with this ~9% of hands that means he is laying down 78% of the time and I win 13966. He calls 23% of the time and with 31% equity i lose -11524.64
.78 (13966) + .31(-11524) = +8230.60
So I guess it comes down to game flow and reads on the player. My gut is that he opens wide and only calls premiums. Of course, we're all over the map on what we think is true here so I guess that's why this game is so beautiful.
July 3, 2010
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You need to add in other variables outside of this specific villain which no one has done yet.
Villain has 25 bb's. The next biggest stack at the table is 15 bb's.
You need to figure out what the odds are of being called when you open jam into a table of all short stacks and only one guy with a nice stack who'd rather be the one opening the action.
If the table was more balanced I'd lean toward saying just get it in with slightly marginal equity versus this guy but why do that when you can go into maniac mode and jam your stack down everyone's throats who have the same stack size or less than yours? They can't reasonably be calling you too light and it's far more profitable to take a shot against them than to be re-shoving with minimal fold equity against the only person opening pots.
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