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$8,000 MOSS Event #33
Maniackid11
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July 28, 2019 - 11:25 am
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Game Hand #84221697 – Tournament #10991123 – Holdem(No Limit) – Level 14 (225.00/450.00)- 2019/07/27 02:05:06 UTC
Table ’67’ 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: melissa2141 (10745.00)
Seat 2: Maxsavage (7755.00)
Seat 3: Acehole23 (7955.00)
Seat 4: Maniac1130 (27358.00)
Seat 5: jkelner (7958.00)
Seat 6: KKLeonidas300 (17952.00)
Seat 7: rfee82088 (4625.00)
Seat 9: norman1997 (24811.00)
melissa2141 posts ante 55.00
Maxsavage posts ante 55.00
Acehole23 posts ante 55.00
Maniac1130 posts ante 55.00
jkelner posts ante 55.00
KKLeonidas300 posts ante 55.00
rfee82088 posts ante 55.00
norman1997 posts ante 55.00
norman1997 posts the big blind 450.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Main pot 440.00
Dealt to Maniac1130 [Kh Ac]
melissa2141 folds
Maxsavage raises 999.00 to 999.00
Acehole23 folds
Maniac1130 raises 2448.00 to 2448.00
jkelner folds
KKLeonidas300 folds
rfee82088 folds
norman1997 folds
Maxsavage calls 1449.00
*** FLOP *** [Js 5d 9h]
Main pot 5786.00
Maxsavage checks
Maniac1130 bets 1897.00
Maxsavage raises 5252.00 to 5252.00 and is all-in
Maniac1130 calls 3355.00
*** TURN *** [Js 5d 9h] [Ks]
Main pot 16290.00
*** RIVER *** [Js 5d 9h Ks] [8d]
Main pot 16290.00
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Main pot 16290.00
Maxsavage shows [Jc As] (a pair of Jacks [Js Jc As Ks 9h])
Maniac1130 shows [Kh Ac] (a pair of Kings [Ks Kh Ac Js 9h])
Maniac1130 collected 16290.00 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 16290.00
Board [Js 5d 9h Ks 8d]
Seat 1: melissa2141 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 2: Maxsavage showed [Jc As] and lost with a pair of Jacks [Js Jc As Ks 9h]
Seat 3: Acehole23 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 4: Maniac1130 showed [Kh Ac] and won 16290.00 with a pair of Kings [Ks Kh Ac Js 9h]
Seat 5: jkelner folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 6: KKLeonidas300 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 7: rfee82088 (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
Seat 9: norman1997 (big blind) folded on the Pre-Flop

 

Since we are being laid 3.86:1 is this a +Ev call? Because I was thinking that we have ~24% equity vs top pair but Flopzilla is showing that we have ~roughly 17% against his TP range. Hmm, maybe this is because his TP range has some KJ in it which brings the equity of my hand Vs that range down? So does that make this a -Ev call? How do I think about this spot correctly?

Maniackid11
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July 28, 2019 - 11:31 am
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Or is this because against AJ and KJ we are drawing to 3 outs, and QJ and JT have str8 draw outs us? Now I think this was a bad call after all. Am I correct in thinking this way?

canadian_kidxxx
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July 28, 2019 - 5:44 pm
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I would cbet a bit bigger and never plan on folding.  His range is a lot more than just top pair and if villain is ever doing this with hands like 77 or 88 it’s a pretty big mistake to bet-fold.

Maniackid11
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July 28, 2019 - 7:18 pm
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I was thinking villain never does this with worse than top pair. Which most likely is not the case, I was just surprised to see how little equity I had against the Top Pair portion of his range. I guess if I have some sort of dynamic with him and I don’t think he’s ever shoving with worse than top pair here, it’s a mistake to call his shove mathematically. If I bet half pot on the flop with the same read, it’s a snap call. I still think there’s something fundamental here I am not thinking correctly about.

Foucault

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July 28, 2019 - 9:26 pm
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These are good questions to ask, about what factors influence your equity, so that you can better estimate equity in game. I’m guessing that in-game you did something like, “Six outs twice is about 24% equity, sounds good, let’s get it in.” And yeah, the problem there is that you often have three outs (against AJ or KJ) and occasionally 0.

More fundamentally, it’s worth asking whether you want to bet the flop at all. Whether you end up folding away 18% equity or calling it off getting just barely the right price, neither is an appealing proposition (and betting bigger to price yourself in is a mistake, don’t go down that street). The part of the game tree where Villain raises your bet is pretty bad for you, so is the other part, where he folds, really good for you? I don’t think so. I think most of his folds are hands you’re going to beat anyway. This is a pretty bad flop for your hand relative to his range, and I think you ought to check back.

nkarapet
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July 29, 2019 - 1:40 am
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Is it reasonable to give Maxsavage range like 66-QQ, JTs, QJs, KQs, ATs-AQs for RFI/call 3B OOP? Then which hands he will check/shove with? Not sure if that make sense to slowplay set of JJ in his shoes, I probably would. So I would shove QQ(2), 99, AJ(2),may be (???) QJ(3), may be (???) JTs(3) as value. He is offering 3.8:1 pot odds, so he need 1 bluff per 3.8 value hands. Which probably brings us to just couple bluffs, may be 3 bluff hands. Probably KQs are the best bluff candidates as they block some your value range and do not block your bluff range. Against this range AK has 25% equity when we need about 20%. Looks as a good proposition, unless we are saying the Maxsavage never bluffs in this spot…

Do I miss anything? Or my math is wrong (againfrown ) ?

Maniackid11
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July 29, 2019 - 8:01 am
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Foucault said  I’m guessing that in-game you did something like, “Six outs twice is about 24% equity, sounds good, let’s get it in.” And yeah, the problem there is that you often have three outs (against AJ or KJ) and occasionally 0.

More fundamentally, it’s worth asking whether you want to bet the flop at all. Whether you end up folding away 18% equity or calling it off getting just barely the right price, neither is an appealing proposition (and betting bigger to price yourself in is a mistake, don’t go down that street). The part of the game tree where Villain raises your bet is pretty bad for you, so is the other part, where he folds, really good for you? I don’t think so. I think most of his folds are hands you’re going to beat anyway. This is a pretty bad flop for your hand relative to his range, and I think you ought to check back.  

The first part of this amazed me. That’s exactly what I was thinking in game. Then after reviewing this hand later on, I realized what a disaster betting this flop was. I would say some of the circumstances that change whether we bet or check this flop is stack size? If he was deeper we should consider betting the flop.

Those are great points Andrew. I was never actually considering betting bigger to price myself in. I was just simply observing that if I did initially bet bigger on the flop, mathematically it would be +EV to call. Obviously that is not good reasoning for doing so.

Checking back is definitely the right play given everything I have learned about this spot so far. Thanks for the advice!

DuckinDaDeck
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August 8, 2019 - 3:16 pm
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Maniackid11 said
I would say some of the circumstances that change whether we bet or check this flop is stack size? If he was deeper we should consider betting the flop.

As a general rule, yes, we can continuation bet more frequently at deeper stacks. More opportunities to barrel without risking significant portions of our stack, more chance that villain calls once with weak hands that can’t call again, and less chance that villains shove. However, when considering a c-bet at any stack depth, you need to consider what it accomplishes. Unlike a flop of T63 or 774, we don’t benefit nearly as much from denying equity to hands that will fold on J95. We’re also way less likely to get value from weaker A-highs on this flop. If we consider the villain’s likely UTG+1 range for calling an MP 3bet, this board is extremely dangerous.

Villain arguably shouldn’t have any 3bet calling range at ~17bb, but let’s work with a 40bb range to see how it might look. I’m going to assume villain jams KK-JJ, AK, AQs and traps with AA. I think we can play against a range of AA, AQo, AJ/ATs, KQ/KJs, QJs, TT-88.

At 40bb you can call 3bets wider than that from EP if you play excellently postflop, but it is hard to go much wider profitably. I’d strongly consider folding KJs/QJs/88 since the 3bet came from MP rather than LP or the blinds. In the actual hand, villain shows up even wider, but let’s focus on something we’d expect to see more often.

If we work against that range, we can expect folds to our cbet from ~ 18 / 40 combos (AQo, ATs, 88). Sounds good, but we’re already crushing 12 of those combos. There’s not much need to deny equity from 3 outers with only a few BD straight draws, and we may occasionally pick off a bluff on later streets. KQs is the only hand we’re ahead of that we’d usually expect to continue.

Unfortunately, it’s a terrible board for c-betting light in a 3bet pot, regardless of stack depth. I’d prefer it if we had a BDFD and/or lower showdown equity, but I’m generally looking to play somewhat snug on this type of board. Although they don’t usually have nut advantage, the player that calls a 3bet often has range advantage over the 3bettor on Q and J high boards.

For 3bet pots, especially in position, you may also want to consider checking many value hands on these kinds of boards, for both pot control and deception/balance. The inflated pot does increase the value of protecting your hand/taking the pot down now, but waiting for the turn to invest more chips can make our one pair hands easier to play, and the shallower SPR often still allows our better hands to set up river shoves with a delayed c-bet.

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