Hi – agree with Foucault that this is a raise PF at this stack depth. Easy to slip into calling because of the limp in front of us, but better to raise here.

@Rice, you mention we’re too shallow to set mine? Am I misreading it or does Derek have 178BB?! Anyway, as above I agree it’s a raise pre.

I’m not sure we expect Fildy to be bumping it to 8k pre in this spot particularly light absent any reads. Do we think he’s doing that with 67? Definitely giving him AA, KK and AK, AQ, KQ of diamonds in his range, as well as other pairs 99+, AQ+ and maybe other non-diamond high suited combos. Not sure if lower pairs raise or just limp behind pre. 77 becomes interesting as the hand goes on and is v borderline raise pre!

Haven’t had a chance to run the equity but unless we know this guy is capable of a big overbet bluff here, it feels a lot like a flush or a 7. I think the AK and KQ hands probably bet the flop though. KK possible but seems bad to jam the river as you could easily have the flush.

Any reads on villain? Sorry, I can’t recall the podcast discussion even though I have definitely listened to it! 

Yeah, just checked the podcast and you mentioned it was 27/22/13.

Think I am folding here, if playing my best. If…

Seems like a raise preflop, not knowing anything about the UTG player.

67s is the obvious hand that gets there on the turn. You would think that hand would be fine limping behind, given that the two limpers are UTG and UTG+1, but I don’t hate raising that if you think you can get it heads up with the initiative in position. Given the 27/22/13, that’s certainly possible.

The other obvious raising hands on the turn are A6s and A7s of diamonds. 6 on the river narrows that to one combination, so that’s unlikely, but A7s would definitely play it that way.

44 would also love that turn card, but 44 might want to limp pre. 44 also might not shove on the river, since that’s less likely to be called by a hand 44 beats.

AdKx seems like another raising possibility on the turn if he’s slowplaying, but given it’s a 4-way pot, you think he’d bet there 9 times out of 10. This would be a bluff candidate on the river, but would he bluff top pair top kicker?

Given how scary the board ended up, it’s hard to see him shoving 44 and 55 on the river, which are the two value hands you conceivably beat (maybe AK if he’s a pure donk). 

The real question is how does he play a club draw, because that’s the most likely bluff. Maybe he checks back the flop with it worried about getting check-raised in a 4-way pot. Then he might be willing to raise with it on the turn, which doesn’t complete anything besides 67s. A river shove with a club draw on that board is golden.

At first I was thinking this was a fold for me. The more I think about it, the more I think calling is reasonable. I still think I fold because the most likely line is a diamond draw, and you have to be right a lot. 

I’m not as good as I should be with using huds, but I would be curious on the guy’s CBet percentage. If it’s abnormally low, I’d be more likely to call, since it’s possible he could check back a club draw on the flop. If it’s high, I fold.

Tricky spot.