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May 30, 2012
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So last night I final tabled the 22$ 3K GTD on merge and came across a difficult spot with 99. Id like to know your thoughts and
opinions on this hand. Consider ICM, our edge if we fold, and stack sizes, vs. the benefits of shipping pre. Dont think flatting is an
option but if you beg to differ Im open to it. My only notes on the villain was that they were relatively tight, running something like
a 19/9 over 125 hands. Im currently 4/5 in chips with 21bb, shorty has 8.5bb.
I havent been able to figure out how to convert it so I apologize for the way its formatted
Merge Game #57440614-270 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 2012/06/26 00:04:24 -0400 Table $3,000 Guaranteed Freezeout, 57126497, Seats 9 (Tournament: $3,000 Guaranteed Freezeout, 57126497 Buy-In: $20+$2.00)
HERO ($105,324.00 in chips) 21bb The5thAs ($43,824.00 in chips) 8.5bb VILLAIN ($173,926.00 in chips) 35bb seanxbl ($163,402.00 in chips) 33bb cracker9ball ($131,524.00 in chips) DEALER 26bb
HERO: Post Ante $500.00 The5thAs: Post Ante $500.00 VILLAIN: Post Ante $500.00 seanxbl: Post Ante $500.00 cracker9ball: Post Ante $500.00 HERO: Post SB $2,500.00 The5thAs: Post BB $5,000.00 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to HERO [9d 9s] VILLAIN: Raise $15,000.00 seanxbl: Fold cracker9ball: Fold
Hero???
So the villain 3x's pre utg, which was his standard open size, from a 35bb stack into the shorties bb and we have 99
in the SB. Thanks for checking it out!
May 30, 2012
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I prob ship it and expect to get it through an awful lot of the time, especially if 3x is his standard open. dont really like flatting here unless you have specific reads that he will spew off pretty massively post.
regarding our edge, i think it increases substantially if we double up/or chip up here as our current stack size will make it difficult to put pressure on our opponents
lastly 5 handed i think the proportion of his opening range that snaps and crushes us is way smaller than you think, he basically only has to call the shorty shove so he could be opening his normal range/even wider.
also given its 5 handed i wouldnt be hugely surprised to get it in v worse, since nitish fish dont tend to raise/fold ever. so he may snap us with 77+ but fold things that have good equity agianst us, ie KQ KJ JQ J10 A10 etc. i think this is a spot where we should be looking to accumulate chips to really put pressure on and put the others in shitty spots.
in summary i jam, not sure if its bad
May 31, 2012
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I think 3bet jamming here just looks so strong, especially if the payjumps are meaningful. There's a villain that is going to be out of the tournament so soon, and yet you want to put all your chips in the middle. I thin that looks incredibly strong
Anyway, stoving it up. What kind of opening range can we give him? I put it up as AJo+ A9s+, KJs, 77+ for about 9% of hands. When faced with our shove, he sees a pot of 127824 and it's going to cost him 92824 chips to call. If his opening range is what I pointed out, but his calling range is only 88+, AQs+ AK+, we have 38% equity against.
If he's only calling that wide, but raising twice as wide, then we show a profit of a little under half of a blind. I did all the math on paper, but:
.047x.6163x(-105324)= – 3050.8
.047x.38370x(220648)= +3979.1
(.094-.047)x25000 = +1175
-3050.8+3979.1+1175= 2103.3
After doing the math, I'm not sure if shoving is best, but it looks profitable. I'm too lazy to include a calling range for short stack and then what calling does to affect our original villain's calling range, though it should definitely have an impact. It probably works out in our favor the wider the shorty's calling range is because it has to tell the villain that he'll get to see your hand either way, and he doesn't need to risk it.
– Jacob
May 30, 2012
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highly likely chip leader opens far wider than stated, more like A2+ 22+ 89s+ J10o+,
May 30, 2012
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With the stack sizes, this is a 3 bet shove or fold. 99 here is personally the bottom of my 3 bet shoving hands, so if I decide to play here it is a snap 3 bet shovesky and beat his AK, AQ hopefully. Now, with the icm and pay jump implications, if he has appeared nitty and not getting out of line as mentioned, I may just sigh fold and not tell any one:) I know that many pros though wouldn't really think twice here and 3 bet shove playing for first. However, as we all know with merge, 20bb is a very playable stack and you can maybe wait for a better spot (if there will be one) to get it in. You are flipping at best with the 3 bet shove imo, but at the end of the day you are going to have to win flips and races to be 1st, so again I think it is a game flow, player dynamic/read play. What did you do?
June 20, 2012
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If their STD open was 3x, I don't think I'm folding or calling. Just shoving it in too… 🙂
May 30, 2012
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Shove all day long. Depending on how laggy hes been playing prolly shove 77-88 too.
July 3, 2010
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Probably an ICM fold. Idiots like this aren’t aware of stack sizes – I doubt he knows the BB even exists in this hand. I bet he's raising a pretty strong hand, too.
May 30, 2012
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I tank shoved and got shown AQss and lost a flip. It was so close here because he wasnt opening super wide like a big stack should be so when he does call its always a flip or we're beat. I dont think hes raise calling worse pairs against us for 2/3 of his chips, 88 is even close. I inially just saw 99 and stuffed but upon closer inspection I hated it, not because of the result but because it was an unnessary flip I was taking, when I can comfortably play a 20bb stack and keep an edge that way.
I do agree with the statement that our edge increases if we win a double, but i just think nit folding is best to stay out of a flip situation when we dont nessacarily need to take it. Structure was really good and so was our position/image/and a decent stack. Im folding 77/88 i think here vs the villain, but I think they all play the same.
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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This seems like a fistpump jam.
May 31, 2012
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I still say shoving has gotta be profitable over all there. Yeah, he's not raise/calling with worse, but he should still have a raise/folding range that just feeds you chips for every time he folds in that spot. This is one of those spots that playing a 20bb stack has. What are you really going to wait for? You can't 3bet shove with AA every time, and this looks like a normal spot to do it. I'm not happy if we're called, but I'm happy about the move. And since we calculate small edges when we care this much about the game, it should be noted you're better than a flip. 52.5% to AQs and that's if you don't have his suit. If you do, it's almost 53%. These things matter. You got it in good for a great stack to win the tournament. You can't nitfold your way when spots like this show up, else you're going to end up moving up a single payjump instead of 1st. Something bigdog said in his hyper sng's made me think about this spot to be honest. Whenever he had a bigger stack than the big blind and the short stack was not in the blinds, he'd raise to put pressure on the big blind, who knows he can wait another hand or two to make the money. If your villain is thinking at all, which he has to at least a little bit if he's final tabling and not playing like a maniac (which your stats say), then it's certainly not out of the question to think he may be raising slightly wider to put pressure on you in the small blind because the big blind is going out so many times before you.
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