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aa facing very big turn bet
danrose29
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May 23, 2013 - 8:29 am
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i posted this in the “ask the pros” section but didnt realise that that section is not for asking questions about hands.

im early in 27$ scoop knockout blinds are 15/30 guy opens early position and gets one caller in early position i have aa in middle position, (all of us have roughly 5k in chips) i raise to 230 they both call. Flop j106 two spades first guy checks second caller bets quite big 430 into like 690/700. To be honest i just feel like folding flop i mean from past experience ive seen players early on betting big into pre flop three better with a set or two pair, plus if i call flop what will turn bet be?

I decided it was too weak to fold flop so i called hoping for a 6 i guess on turn giving me big two pair. Turn is offsuite 8 he bets 1250 into like 1650, i folded. Is this a bad fold? Should i  be calling him down or getting it in on turn?

I mean is he really value betting aj kj qj here? the bets seem so big i feel like i could be in trouble. I have no info on villain thoughts please.

piefarmer
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May 23, 2013 - 12:46 pm
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Dan,

I don't know if this is a good or bad fold, but I would push back on your characterisation of villain's bet sizing.  He is betting 60% on the flop and 75% on the turn.  I don't think either are out of the ordinary.  The obvious caveat is if you have history on the villain suggesting otherwise.

I think you are correct to note the villain bet into two opponents on the flop, but I don't think the size is unusually big.

Villain could be ahead, but he might also just be the type who aggressively bets his draws. 

MadBaltic
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May 23, 2013 - 3:37 pm
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Raise flop get it in.

danrose29
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May 23, 2013 - 4:01 pm
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ty baltic but if i make big flop raise is he really getting it in with kj qj? i dunno.

MadBaltic
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May 24, 2013 - 4:35 am
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Its a 3b pot his range has a lot of draws(broadway hands) that he will be forced to make a decision to put it all in or fold it, if we just call we have to call him down on a lot of boards.

markconkle
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May 24, 2013 - 6:06 pm
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I agree if you raise he is put ina bad spot with most of his draws.  Either he folds and you gain equity or he calls/shoves and you gain equity.  Sounds good to me!

DJRog00
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May 24, 2013 - 7:47 pm
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First of all, I’m thinking you should make your 3bet a bit bigger. With a raise (I’m assuming to 90) and a caller already behind, you are begging to go at least 3 way possibly more into this pot with implied odds for anyone at the table. I’d make it over 300 maybe even as high as 340 just to discourage ppl with that many players left behind. You essentially min 3bet here and with no antes and approx 170bb stacks all around you aren’t pushing anyone out. You would like to get heads up with the original raiser or caller if possible. This will also give you more control of the hand and a better sense of his range (though many players may call anyway this deep).

As far as the flop goes, it gets a bit interesting. The OR checks, so I’m not too concerned about him unless you get a big chk/r indicating a huge draw or a set. The caller makes a fairly large bet, but considering stack sizes and stage it isn’t uncommon. He has some sort of hand, JT, QJ, KJ, AJ, KQ, are all possibilities along with a wide range of spade draws, though I don’t know if he bets out with the flush draw. Readless it can be hard to know what he does with a flush draw.

I would choose to raise his flop bet (to ~1k or so) to find out where we are and to try and take control back. Calling seems pretty weak since we were the original 3bettor. If he shoves we can be pretty sure we are either in big trouble or flipping so we may be able to save some chips. This early on this type of board I don’t how happy I am getting it in with him.

If he calls our raise we now have control again and can re-evaluate on the turn. This may also get us a free turn card if he has top pair or even two pair and the turn card is a bit scary. Or if he was on a draw we can push him off it if he misses, tho I assume big draws get it in on flop if we raise.

As played, I’m pretty torn, readless I find it hard to get it in here with one pair facing a big turn bet. He is not folding to a shove and calling is bad. The fact that he called an OR and your 3bet he has such a wide range. Sets and two pairs are def a possibility and you are in terrible shape against them. I doubt he leads out turn that big with just top pair and def does not with a flush. Fold and note the hand. I could say more I gotta run. Hope this is helpful.

packallama
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May 24, 2013 - 9:39 pm
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Definitely just 4x 3bet squeezing at this stack depth. Postflop, I would play it the same as you did. Raising flop to “find out where you are at” is just burning money, especially with a player still to act. After he barrels turn, just fold. Our hand is fairly face up as an overpair and he is still betting into us. A lot of players don't like to fold overpairs at this stage, so I doubt he will be trying to bluff us off it often. Don't worry about playing a hand “too weak.” Just go with your reads like you did.

DJRog00
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May 28, 2013 - 9:16 pm
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Yeah don't raise to 'find out where you are at,' thats stupid and not sure why I wrote that.  Looking back it might be fine to call flop and see what he does on turn.  His turn bet screams a big hand though, so definitely a good fold.  The only real problem I see is to 3bet bigger preflop.

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