Fold, he has jacks.
30+ bbs at a $10 FT on cake- I think you have a significant edge.
Why gamble here?

You have 40% against sklansky tier 1 (AKs, JJ+). I personally wouldnt give him many more, maybe AKo but i think he flats AQ considering he’s jeopardising his monster stack to pick up a min raise and blinds. My gut says he has a monster and is hoping you spaz out given your expecting someone to play back at you soon.

Not an easy fold but it is prolly an ICM mistake to call. Not that I’m an ICM expert.

in order to factor ICM into this, we'd need to know the payouts.

but given how close this is just from a cEV perspective, i'd imagine it's a fold.

we need ~45% and unless he's shoving AQ we don't have over 50%.

i'll say again, you can't run any ICM calcs without payouts.

ty sir.

playing atm, but will take a look at this later.

I am not trying to say what is right or wrong here, but FWIW I have never folded AK sooted 8 handed.

bennymacca said:

this is on the final table of a $10 tourney, 8 left,  as you can see i am third in chips with a pretty decent stack compared to the rest of the table. chip leader is on my left and is noticing that i have been opening a TON. 

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ttwist said:

dont care if i get 9th and snap calling

in this case your open will be followed by quick snap, AQ is well within this range. 

I want a balance between reasonable risk, playing sound, and setting up to win the tournament, this sets us up to win and gains respect for the plethora of min opens they are about to see

bennymacca said:

dvbronco said:

Play to win….I snap call…..then either win the tourney or  with my $35

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if i had 20 bb then this is the easiest call in the world, but with 35bb, and a big percieved edge on the table, i dont need to be getting it in here. 

play to win is true, but with 33bb left if i fold, i still definitely have a stack that allows me to win the tourney

i'm thinking about my stack when we win as well…
 

when you remove aa/kk from his range as will be the case the vast majority, it becomes a pretty clear call imo, we will have a great shot at winning this tourney if we win this pot. the icm should reflect the significant impact of winning in this spot considering our stack if we win, we go from a stack of 17% of chips in play to 37%

my feel for this is we'll be losing ~ $60 -$EV or so if we lose this pot, i think it's least $60 +$EV when we win considering the massive edge we have with our stack… which brings us back to stove and needing the slightest of edge, which we obv have with aa/kk removed… 

i'm open to the icm proving me wrong, but my gut says we're good to get it in here…

You have a top 3 hand, I mean, what are you waiting for. Bottom line is any person overshoving like the villain did is probably terrible, taking that into account he could easily prob have AQ, AJ, 88+. If I think I am ahead I call, if the guy is nitty and thi sis a scared to get AA cracked shove then I fold if that is my read.

I am deff not folding this everytime, and also deff not calling everytime. Because of chipstacks and ICM it justs seems to far from standard so it would be read based decision.

But tbh I am never scared to race w AK in most spots, its a strong hand and there are several MTTs.

Well IMO, if you opened you should snap call.  otherwise you are just stealing blinds with a premium hand.  His range in my experience is as wide as all pairs, A8s+, AJo+, KJs, KQo.   he knows he is putting you to a tournament decision.

If he has a Monster he is more likely to 3Bet not shove. so I would discard AA, KK.

I do get the point of looking for a better spot after a few eliminations but again, then why opening.  a call from him puts you in a position where you have to Cbet and then what if he shoves ?  you just put more chips in the pot and are in the same spot not even knowing where you stand (obv flop dependant).

Of course if you are playing hit or miss poker and you hit an A or a K after he calls then life is good but we all know that doesnt happen often enough

while i haven't done any of the math yet, i just wanted to point something out.

all the talk of OMG WE HAZ AKs is pretty moot. what ICM means in a nutshell is that at certain points in an MTT–like on bubbles and at final tables–the chips you stand to lose are more valuable than the chips you stand to gain. what that means to us here is that we need better equity against his range to call and show a proft. not in terms of chips but actual money.

i'm not saying it's a fold or a call (i'd probably call in game because it's a smaller tourney and the small amount of EV i may be sacrificing by calling doesn't outweigh the chance to get a big stack and some practice running over a final table), but just that it's not as simple as “i have AKs, i'm not folding.”

Great spot, great discussion.  I think that you have to go with your gut.  I play these stakes, and would likely call and win about 60% or more by my estimate.  I certainly agree that if you think you have a huge edge over the table, your lower variance play would be a fold.  Either way seems fine.  With more money at stake I am more likely to fold it.  Thanks for the post!

also i just used the ICM calculator at holdemresources.net and got different values for your chip stacks ($151.8 if we fold and $211.30 if we call and win), but with the different numbers it still says we need 66%.

Don't think Ii'm folding here in a 8 handed ft, especially in a $10 buyin.