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10 left and sitting in 9th.. Venicheg has been opening a ton of pots, folded to a few 3bets and shoves. xnicalx stats are 19/17/33 steal and 6.5 3bet.
Do you stick it in with the AT here? I worked it out and need 44% equity to be slightly +cEV here, counting his pot sized 3b as a shove. Against this range it is ok, do you think this range is somewhat accurate? 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A6o+, KJo+
Also with his raise I thought he could be trying a badly played go n go too with a weaker range.
Let me know what you guys think.
Full Tilt Poker Game #20732488330: $17,500 KO Guarantee (159252676), Table 12 – 1200/2400 Ante 300 – No Limit Hold’em – 15:36:55 ET – 2010/05/10
Seat 1: BigAtmos (140,220)
Seat 5: Pondeus (200,601)
Seat 6: Venicheg (148,170)
Seat 8: xnicalx (40,412)
Seat 9: guitey (49,234)
BigAtmos antes 300
Pondeus antes 300
Venicheg antes 300
xnicalx antes 300
guitey antes 300
xnicalx posts the small blind of 1,200
guitey posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to guitey [Th Ah]
BigAtmos folds
Pondeus folds
Venicheg raises to 5,600
xnicalx raises to 20,700
guitey has 15 seconds left to act
guitey has requested TIME
guitey raises to 48,934, and is all in
Venicheg folds
xnicalx calls 19,412, and is all in
that range might be a tad wide and on top of that you have the original raiser to act and he’s going to have a hand some of the time and then we have to consider ICM.
how short is 10th place? ICM doesn’t matter tooooooooo much when you’re the short stack–esp if you’re really short–but it does matter and requires more equity than normal when calling off.
i’d pass. we have a solid stack to resteal and then after this level will have a fine shoving stack for a couple levels.
We have 44.513% equity vs this range, 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KQo, (I actually think that is pretty tight against this BTN raiser 5 handed) so that is the point we need to at least be at. None of this is taking ICM into consideration tho, I don’t think it plays a huge part in this spot with me and villain being the shortest stacks and the next stack up had ~75k.
Fwiw my first thought was to fold, but the more I thought about it I thought to ship it as his range is going to be wide enough to make it profitable. This was just off the top of my head in game tho so obv not accurate but seems it was an ok decision looking at these ranges.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
Really interesting spot. My initial thoughts here are that you’ll have more equity on a straight 3 bet, or jamming after the blinds pass you. I know what you mean about his range but I think that even if it’s +EV, it’s probably not as +EV as the next few hands will provide you.
I mean it seems like a fold. Your defently getting called here. Unless 3 better has been really agg I would just fold and look for a 3 bet shove spot with that stack. Givin the fact that xnical has less then 20 bigs I would think more times then not your dominated here. Its def a fold for me.
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