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Bad bluff with nut blocker or unlucky?
Nas47
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March 13, 2017 - 2:26 pm
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Villain was playing Vpip 37/PFR 11/ 3b 7. My stats were 25/16/7. His bet sizing on the flop and turn made me think he was not nutted. All comments appreciated.

PokerStars – 100/200 Ante 18 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 66.12 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 15)
CO: 68.84 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
Hero (BTN): 86.17 BB
SB: 16.27 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 24)
BB: 96.57 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
UTG: 30.99 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 24.66 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 62.48 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 28)
MP+1: 25.07 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

9 players post ante of 0.09 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

 

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.31 BB) Hero has Tclub Adiamond

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, MP calls 2 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (11.81 BB, 5 players) 9spade Jdiamond 7diamond
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP bets 4.25 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.25 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (20.31 BB, 2 players) Qspade
MP bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 18.93 BB, MP calls 12.93 BB

River: (58.16 BB, 2 players) 6diamond
MP checks, Hero bets 43 BB, MP calls 37.22 BB and is all-in

[spoil]Hero shows Tclub Adiamond (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 44%, Flop 17%, Turn 18%)
MP shows 9diamond 9heart (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 56%, Flop 83%, Turn 82%)
MP wins 132.59 BB
[/spoil]

Turbulence
Falkirk, Scotland
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
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March 13, 2017 - 3:19 pm
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Overall I like what you are trying to do here.

The fact that you have the Ad removes a bunch of flush draw hands from opponents range, and you have a T which blocks another chunk of opponents nutted hands. However, the line you take doesn’t really tell the story of hitting a flush draw because the turn raise looks like you are repping a made str8 or set as minimum so this reduces your hand range to KT, T8 and the hands with FD as well have little to be scared of. 

With the line you take a slightly smaller turn raise gives you a bigger stack to pot shove which reduces our opponents odds. Therefore he has to be good more often to call the river shove. 

I would probably go for a call, call, bomb( if checked to on river); or call; call; big raise/all-in shove line. Basically I would make my move on the river as I think this tells a more convincing story. 

This kind of move requires a thinking player as your opponent. If the opponent is a station it doesn’t really matter what you do hes not folding his flopped set. 

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/

Foucault

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March 13, 2017 - 3:20 pm
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Fold flop! Looks fine otherwise though. Maybe make turn raise a bit larger. Look at the odds your turn raise offers him, compared to the odds your river shove offers.

Cdubs77
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March 13, 2017 - 3:40 pm
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Soooo…I don’t post much in the comments but decided it’s high time I start learning through hand history and the more hand history reviews the better.  Having said that, I hope you don’t mind me jumping in here.  Take it for what it’s worth.  

 

Looking at that board, my first thought was that I don’t think you calling on the flop was a good option.  I think if you were going to continue and represent when a scare card hit the turn, I think raising may have been a good option on the flop.  I also think folding on the flop was a good option too, but again not sure about calling.  That’s such a wet board.  MP is pretty active and aggro according to the numbers so I do understand why you wanted to play against him with this hand, knowing if you hit he will put more money into the pot.  

 

I also think if you check raise, there are a ton of turn cards that give you more outs heading into the river, any Q,K possibly your A is good if he has a hand like JT, obviously an 8 is good for you and a diamond is good. 

When you call the flop, I think I would put you on a hand like QT, QJ, maybe flush draw, maybe JT, 77s, 88s.   You could have 8T…but maybe in villain’s mind that is the only hand that is beating him on the turn.  I think once he calls the turn, he is committing himself to the river call.  

 

I think just the way the hand played out he was going with the 99s… but again, my initial gut is to fold the flop.  

 

Sorry if I’m all over the place…I keep going back to I think folding was the best option in my brain, but trying to help you along in the hand the way it was played.   

theginger45

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March 13, 2017 - 8:52 pm
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Yeah, agree with Andrew. Fold flop, the rest looks pretty good as played.

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