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February 8, 2017
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Literally just played this hand. I would like a larger preflop raise but not a huge deal. Really curious about opinions on the turn decision. No specific read on these players (8 hands) and hard to narrow preflop limp calls with any confidence. I can probably get 3 bets from most Qx vs. typical limp-calling type players, but middle card pairing is a little scary against 2 flop calls even if an 8x is somewhat unlikely. I think it’s probably close between bet and check, thoughts?
PokerStars – 40/80 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+2: 71.85 BB
Hero (CO): 67.56 BB
BTN: 65.5 BB
SB: 78.44 BB
BB: 64.11 BB
UTG: 47.45 BB
UTG+1: 35.1 BB
MP: 62.37 BB
MP+1: 65 BB
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has K
K
fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 3.5 BB, MP+2 calls 3.5 BB
Flop: (16.12 BB, 3 players) 8
Q 3
MP checks, MP+2 checks, Hero bets 5.56 BB, MP calls 5.56 BB, MP+2 calls 5.56 BB
Turn: (32.81 BB, 3 players) 8
MP checks, MP+2 checks, Hero ?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I think pre-flop sizing is not not a big deal. A larger raise is substantially better precisely because even when you get a seemingly safe flop like this one you still run into problems getting stacks in if you don’t get the SPR low enough with a bigger preflop raise.
Just pointing out that someone could have an 8 isn’t an a priori argument for checking. Why would checking save you money vs an 8? Do you think the 8 pairing makes it less likely that you will get three streets from a Q?
September 3, 2018
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I would think you still bet after the turn. How likely are the hands that could have you beat?
AA? I doubt it. Limp from early position seems iffy, and even if that was the case I would think AA reraises your pre flop bet. Just calling with AA and playing it three way seems really dangerous.
A8 suited? I suppose it would be ambitiously possible (though misguided) pre flop. But given the strength you have shown pre flop and after the flop I have a hard time seeing it.
88? That would make sense limping from early position and calling your raise. It would make sense for him to check call with middle set after the flop to give you the chance to keep betting into him. But when another 8 comes on the turn, how likely is it that he has 88 giving him quads? Seems pretty unlikely. If that’s what it is, well, that’s poker. But you can’t be afraid of unlikely monsters under the bed. If you see quads every time a hand like this plays out, you’ll never accumulate chips with an overpair like KK here.
QQ? That would give him top set after the flop, but how likely is a villain to limp call QQ from early position? Maybe after the flop he checks with top set to induce, but with two other opponents in the hand I would think he’d bet figuring to get at least one caller.
33? Maybe, but I don’t think so. 33 seems like a pre flop fold from early position, and then after you raise it seems like an overly ambitious call. Check calling with bottom set after the turn maybe makes sense, but I still think in a three-way hand it makes sense to bet a bit small to either induce or get at least one call.
So none of these hands seem obvious to me.
AQ suited or nonsuited, KQ suited, and maybe QJ suited make sense as played, but you have that beat.
99 or 10-10 make sense as played. Again, you have that beat.
JJ seems like it would have raised pre flop from early position, but maybe someone takes this line.
After the flop there are no flush draws or obvious straight draws (just a gunshot) that make sense.
What puzzles me is the fact that both opponents called your post flop bet. That might give some pause for concern that one of them has an unlikely monster, but I think I lean toward thinking that the opponents combined have something AQ and KQ, or AQ and 9-9.
I lean toward a bet on the turn. Straight draws did not improve. A backdoor flush draw has developed which if that is what someone has you want to charge them to see the river. If they call or jam on your turn bet then they are polarized to a monster, total air or an overly ambitious flush draw. I think betting and seeing how they react clarifies things. Plus, if you consistently get cold feet and don’t build a pot in these types of situations I think it becomes difficult over time to build big chip stacks.
You have a huge hand pre flop and if someone is telling the story of having flopped the world I just don’t find it believable yet. Over time I think it is far more likely that you are ahead than behind here so over time I think betting is more +EV than checking.
Maybe more experienced TPE members will tell me I am being too aggressive (and if so I welcome someone telling me their thinking), but I think playing conservative on the turn as played is not what I would do. My read is one opponent has a single Q and the other opponent has either air or a medium pair. I’d bet.
November 28, 2015
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Before reading what Andrew said, I didn’t give much more thought to bigger preflop sizing. After reading that, I thought a lot more deeply about what Andrew is saying and I understand why we shouldn’t just pass over our preflop sizing. I think it’s definitely something we should focus on. However, I think it’s possible that DDD is agreeing that he knows his preflop sizing is a concern, and he could mean by saying “I like a bigger preflop raise but not a huge deal” as in, not a huge deal more in terms of how much more he raises.
How I play this hand: I fire the turn and deal with my opponents reactions accordingly.
February 8, 2017
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Foucault said
I think pre-flop sizing is not not a big deal. A larger raise is substantially better precisely because even when you get a seemingly safe flop like this one you still run into problems getting stacks in if you don’t get the SPR low enough with a bigger preflop raise.Just pointing out that someone could have an 8 isn’t an a priori argument for checking. Why would checking save you money vs an 8? Do you think the 8 pairing makes it less likely that you will get three streets from a Q?
Good point on preflop sizing, I didn’t express what I meant when I said not a huge deal. I somehow thought that would read like “This is a multi-tabling leak that I’m already very aware of and working on eliminating.” Not something that I can afford to ignore, we’re deep enough that 5bb-6.5bb is way better, and a small preflop sizing change will have a massive impact on pot size in multi-street hands.
You always ask great questions, it’s extremely helpful, thank you. I can’t think of any likely scenarios where checking would save money against an 8. Not expecting many check-raise bluffs multi-way so I can usually get away easily when I get raised. I guess I could lose an extra bet against trips+ if turn bet is called and my river bet gets check-raised… but I’d be questioning my ability to play tournaments profitably if that was my reason for not value betting. This is far from the worst turn card for a Queen, probably less likely to call 3 bets than on a 2-2 runout but perhaps more likely to call down than on an average turn. An unimproved Queen is at least paying off on more river cards than if the turn were A, K, or J – 9. Regardless, I guarantee that a Queen won’t put in 3 bets if I check the turn.
There’s another reason that the 8 is relatively good for me. It stops Queens from drawing to a winning 2 pair, so they often have 4.5% equity instead of ~ 11%. Also, I tend to assume unknown limp-callers from these positions have every pocket pair <=TT in their range. Now I have 2 fewer combos from that range to worry about, and the turn brings no new sets. Stubborn players might even be more likely to talk themselves into a turn call with pairs < Queen than they would be on most cards.
Rppoker, I agree with your conclusion but I range these players a lot wider than you have. I appreciate how much work you put into your response, really good stuff. I’ll try to give a more thorough response when I have more time.
Long story short, I checked turn and instantly regretted it. Posted this hand to make sure I was right that I made a mistake, and now I’m realizing that it really is a big mistake.
September 3, 2018
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“Rppoker, I agree with your conclusion but I range these players a lot wider than you have. I appreciate how much work you put into your response, really good stuff. I’ll try to give a more thorough response when I have more time.”
I agree that you can/should range them wider than I did. The point I was trying to make was twofold:
1) I was looking at monsters that could have you beat and what I felt was the unlikely possibility that they had any of them as played.
2) While I definitely agree you can range villain wider, what I was stating was the high end of what I thought they actually had (which would have been behind your holding). Them having lesser hands is certainly possible/likely.
Any response you have to my posts are welcomed. I give my two cents because I think it keeps what has been at times a quiet forum moving and more lively. On the one hand, I am reluctant to provide my analysis given my relative inexperience compared to others. On the other hand, no one has torn me to shreds so either people are being polite or maybe my comments have some value. That said, if something I write is a bunch of baloney I am interested in hearing so for the learning experience.
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