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TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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300/500/500 level, I start the hand with a little shy of 90K. UTG (50K) opens to 1200, I call with 7h 6h UTG1 (a little dicey, but the table is soft and on the passive side pre-flop and no one plays all that well after the flop), Button (19K), SB (70K), and BB (49K) call.
Flop Ah 4h 3c. Checks to me, I bet 4K into 6500, BN calls, BB raises to 12K, I call, BN shoves for 19K, BB calls, I call. BN is nitty, and BB is passive. I expect to see two-pair or a set from at least one of these players, quite possibly both.
Turn 6d. BB shoves for 30K into a dry sidepot. There’s 63K in the main pot. Hero?
If you want to fully simulate the experience of playing this hand, pretend that there’s an earthquake while you’re in the tank here.
July 24, 2018
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The fact that such a huge spot came up as the Earthquake hit is quite the story.
November 6, 2018
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Looks like we cannot win the hand in showdown not improved. And outs to 2 pair probably not good in this spot. So we have 9 outs to flush + 2 outs to set + 3 outs to street = 14 outs. a little bit less than 30% to improve.
In other hand we need to call 30K to win 93K so we need to win 32.5% times to be break even.
Sounds as zero/-EV spot? And in tournament we probably want to tend to preserve our stack (in zero EV spots), so fold I guess?
P.S. Under earthquake/pressure I probably just fold in this spot without thinking.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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nkarapet,
I’m very glad to see you approaching this mathematically! And you’re going about it in roughly the right way, just a few things need adjusting:
1. Risking 30 to win 90, I need to win only once for every three losses, or 25% of the time.
2. Not all those outs aren’t guaranteed live. If I’m against a set, the 6s aren’t outs for me, nor are two of the hearts. Even against two-pair, one of the hearts is going to make Villain a full house.
February 8, 2017
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Under normal circumstances, I think this has to be a fold. Based on your read, our trips and two pair outs may win the sidepot sometimes but should almost never win the whole pot. Not likely for BB, but BTN could easily be on a nut flush draw, so it seems like we only have 3 guaranteed outs. We’re likely to have > 25% equity vs range in the dry side-pot but I don’t think we’re scooping the main pot often enough to put in another 30k.
All that said, the GTO play during an earthquake can’t be anything other than a YOLO call
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