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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Calling Jam with JQs on final table…

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Calling Jam with JQs on final table?

DaKid

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January 5, 2014 - 2:34 am

[converted_hand][hand_history]Full Tilt, 1,700/3,400 blinds, 400 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. 

SB: 96,254 (28.3 bb)
BB: 63,409 (18.6 bb)
UTG+1: 43,345 (12.7 bb)
UTG+2: 55,282 (16.3 bb)
MP1: 96,632 (28.4 bb)
MP2: 107,315 (31.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): 76,907 (22.6 bb)
CO: 59,874 (17.6 bb)
BTN: 33,982 (10 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J Q
4 folds, [color="red"]Hero raises to 6,800[/color], [color="grey"]CO folds[/color], [color="red"]BTN raises to 33,582 and is all-in[/color], 2 folds, Hero calls 26,782

Flop: (75,864) 9 7 9[color="blue"] (2 players, 1 is all-in)[/color]
Turn: (75,864) 4[color="blue"] (2 players, 1 is all-in)[/color]
River: (75,864) T[color="blue"] (2 players, 1 is all-in)[/color]

[/hand_history][/converted_hand]

(I tried using the TPE hand convertor but gave me an error when I tried to covert)

Villian is 14/7 with a 3bet of 2.9 over 91 hands, had him on my previous table and he was folding a lot. It prob doesn't matter because he's only got 10bb.

I just lost the hand previous when 13bb stack shoved with KK and I called with AK so could have bein slightly on tilt.

Im getting 1.83 to 1 so I need to have 35% equity to call,

Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
<br /><br /> Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi              Range                 <br />    <br />   1       33.1     32.7     0.9                  JdQd            <br />   2       66.9     66.5     0.9      99-AA, A"K-J"{RB}, [A"K-J"] <br />

I'm pretty close to getting the right price on the range above(which may be a bit tight) but is it worth it to make these marginal calls or is it a fold to save my 20bbs stack?

4 other players will still be shorter than me if I fold so ICM wise should I fold?

I don't know the full prize list(Anyone know how to find this?) but it was about $109 for 9th and I think about $1200 up top.

icantmtt

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January 5, 2014 - 6:27 am

cant help you much with the icm stuff… sorry

I'd call here fwiw we have him covered and a pretty decent hand. I think the ranges you gave are a bit tight i can see 55+, ATs+, AJo+. He could even show up with squeeze hands like 7-8s+ if hes oi. We are dominated by a fair bit of his range but its a gamble I would take. We still are left with a decent shove/resteal stack should we lose a race and we are going to have to accumulate some chips to make it to top 3.

Be interested to see what some of the other tpe members think about this spot.

smallcat66

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January 5, 2014 - 12:24 pm

I think i would fold and keep my 20bb stack. I am a bit of a nit so I could be very wrong. There are four stacks smaller than you, so from an ICM point of view it would be nice for a few guys to bust.

jjpregler

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January 5, 2014 - 1:28 pm

Without the full prize list it is hard to determine the exact ICM for this call. Without this, let's assume that you ahve a 10% ICM factor here. Adjusted by 10%, you should look for about 39% equity to make this call.

So what is his range? You opened from the hijack seat, so he can probably expect you to have a decently wide range, making this a good spot for him to shove light and to expect at least decent equity when he does get called. I see him possibly having Axs, 22+, KTs+, KQ, and suited connectors in his range.

Even tight players (if they are decently good) understand when it is time to put your chips in and gamble in good spots. And this looks like a good spot to gamble.

…..rategy.com

MP3	42.90%	{ QJs }
BU	57.10%	{ 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KQo }

markconkle

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January 5, 2014 - 4:58 pm

You only have to win 35.3% of the time based on pure chip EV. You would have to put him on a range like 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo before it gets close. I think the range you give is WAY too tight, and I think the range I've given is very tight as well. Given that you will not be knocked out of the tournament if you lose, ICM is not going to be a huge factor. I would never raise/fold to this guy's stack with any hand here.

smallcat66

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January 5, 2014 - 6:35 pm

Mark, the villian probably knows that you are unlikely to fold and he still chooses to push. He is more than likely to turn over a big ace or a pair.

jjpregler

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January 5, 2014 - 8:16 pm

I don't know what level this is, but I just watched a bigdog vid today where the BB made a desperate all in for 9 BBs with 65o with no fold equity. However, the fish didn't realize that he had no fold equity.

We as players sometimes have to remember that not everyone who we will be playing will analyze the sitaution in the same way we do and will someitmes make what we percieve as pretty basic errors.

DaKid

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January 6, 2014 - 12:45 am

The tournament is a $26 dollar tourney on full tilt, pretty weak field overall I would say certainly weaker than a $26 tourney on stars. The guy is a nit 7% open and 2.9% 3bet is very nitty, infact the only hand he 3bet was this one and of the hands he opened that went to showdown he had AQo and AA. I know he has only 10bbs but for me suited connectors are not in his range any suited Ace is not there and prob 66+. I think markconkle range of 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo is prob closer. Against this range its 35%? Is it worth calling knowing its neutral ev? Is it worth losing the fold equity of a 21bb stack?

I know ICM plays a huge part here so does anyone know how to get the prizepool information from a tournament you've already played?

smallcat66

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January 6, 2014 - 5:24 am

I don't know about Full Tilt but on Stars, you can go to the lobby> Requests > Tournament history. They will email your tourney results in full immediately. Or you could sign up to Pokerpro labs and search for yourself. Click on your tourney.

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