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Can this Misplayed Turn Flush go for Thin Value on the River?
DuckinDaDeck
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August 30, 2019 - 12:58 am
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$215 WCOOP Phase, villain is a strong reg. A bit tight preflop but seems very strong postflop, the type who knows my ranges at least as well as I do. It’s probably why I screwed up the turn.

PokerStars – 1000/2000 Ante 250 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 44.7 BB
MP: 17.4 BB
MP+1: 52.55 BB
CO: 15.34 BB
BTN: 10.65 BB
SB: 29.62 BB
Hero (BB): 56.54 BB
UTG: 12.1 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Jdiamond Kdiamond

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (5.9 BB, 2 players) Tdiamond 7diamond Aclub
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 1.95 BB, Hero calls 1.95 BB

Turn: (9.79 BB, 2 players) 4diamond
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 6.46 BB, Hero calls 6.46 BB

River: (22.72 BB, 2 players) 7club
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 15 BB, Hero ?

This was a big mistake on the turn, was thinking about the hand wrong. Focused on winning more from his bluffs/marginal made hands instead of building the pot with the 2nd nuts. Needed to check-raise. After making this mistake can we find a check-raise on the river? It’s pretty dicey but if the villain would expect most of my flushes to raise the turn, most of my sets to raise the flop, and most of my 7s to fold the turn, I can see a lot of incentive for them to bluff-catch.

Got into a pretty interesting discussion in my study group about how wide villain can c-bet the river and thus how they’d be looking to defend vs. a check-raise. Come, join me, down the rabbit hole…

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August 30, 2019 - 7:26 am
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You’re very focused on Villain’s range and how he might perceive you, but what about your range? It’s your capacity to bluff in this spot that gives V his incentive to bluff-catch. Do you have incentive to turn a T into a bluff? Would you show up here with Kd J?

Villain probably has 10-12 combos that beat you, so you need him to call with at least that many worse hands in order to show a profit. His most natural calls would be worse flushes, Ad X and Ax Kd, though how many of those he’ll have would depend on the question of how wide he’s value betting river. I think with a diamond blocker he can bet AK/AQ for value.

3for3
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August 30, 2019 - 12:25 pm
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I looked at this hand on PIO.  The solver does not like Villain flop bet size, it much preferred using 70% of pot.  It occasionally check raises your hand on the flop.

The turn is a mix for you, both as a donk, and a check raise, but mostly just check call as you did.  I think it is taking an aggressive line about 10% of the time.

The river is also a mix, but still mostly just check call.  The hand that PIO turns into a bluff on the river with the most frequency is Ad4, which has blockers all over the place, to diamonds; and full houses.  

These assumptions all center around Villains range for a 30% pot bet, when he had the option to bet 70%.  I am going to rerun, and see if we only give Villain one bet size (which I suspect may be the case) how things change. 

It doesn’t change too much, although you take the more passive line you chose almost all of the time.   I guess this is not surprising, since Villain’s range is stronger when he only had 1 bet size, as opposed to choosing the smaller of 2 bet sizes.

PIO raises the nut flush, and better, and still likes a counterfeited A4 as its favorite bluff raises.  

This last part is something to consider in general.  When I am counterfeited, I often go into c/f mode.  A cool play is to check raise those hands, since you block many full houses…

DuckinDaDeck
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August 30, 2019 - 4:37 pm
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Wow, I’m surprised by those PIO results, I just assumed that we want to be building the pot with the top of our range. I guess we’re condensing villain’s ranges enough by check-raising the turn that we ultimately win more by calling. Hmm… the gaps in my understanding of postflop play are still immense lol.

The 70% vs 30% sizing also kinda blows my mind but I can see why this board incentivizes sizing up. I tend to go 45-55% max at this stack depth but I’ve never been accused of using (or understanding) GTO sizing. I love that A4 bluff, not something I would ever have discerned on my own but it makes perfect sense, especially with the Ad.

You’re absolutely right Andrew, I was being results-oriented by the hand villain showed up with ( AdQ ), both in my feeling that check-calling the turn was so terrible and my focus on the nuances of villain’s river bet range/strategy for calling check-raises. Ignoring the fact that it’s a very small part of the game tree in a relatively rare situation, it’s not super-relevant if I’m going to struggle to find enough bluffs. KdTx and KdJx were some of the combos I was considering but… what else? 9d8x,8d6x? That would add enough combos for the villain to start hero-calling, but I’ve got to be way more advanced/ballsy/unbalanced/exploitative/crazy/spewy than villain has any reason to expect (AFAIK) if I start using all of those.

Pretty hard to find 12 worse combos, especially since we block 2/3 of villain’s strong diamond kickers and their only likely 1 pair value bets are AK/AQ with a diamond. I guess we can count on Qd9d and 9d8d as worse flushes. Qd8d/8d6d/6d5d all seem iffy to include in a somewhat tight player’s HJ open range, and it’s conceivable that some flushes occasionally find folds. 2 combos of ATs, maybe ATo? Pretty ambitious to count all of those combos as likely calls.

Thanks for the insight guys, this is super helpful.

Maniackid11
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August 30, 2019 - 4:51 pm
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Foucault said
You’re very focused on Villain’s range and how he might perceive you, but what about your range? It’s your capacity to bluff in this spot that gives V his incentive to bluff-catch. Do you have incentive to turn a T into a bluff? Would you show up here with Kd J?

Villain probably has 10-12 combos that beat you, so you need him to call with at least that many worse hands in order to show a profit. His most natural calls would be worse flushes, Ad X and Ax Kd, though how many of those he’ll have would depend on the question of how wide he’s value betting river. I think with a diamond blocker he can bet AK/AQ for value.  

I think having the diamond blocker really only applies if he has the ace of diamonds to make AK/AQ a value bet. I don’t think betting AxKd or AxQd is a good value bet on this river at all. I think you are kind of turning those hands into bluffs. The reason it’s more for value with the Ace of diamonds is because you’re blocking villain from having the nut flush, so his river check/raising value range would be full houses. The rest would be 2nd best type hands (which he will more than likely check/call) and busted draws (if he’s capable of turning a busted draw into a check/raise bluff).

I think you can go for thin value here getting called by AdKx or AdQx for the same reasons that those hands can bet for value on the river.

Even more so, I think with AdKhcs-AdThcs, there’s enough worse blocker hands there that would call a river check/raise to show a profit. We can even exclude AdJhcs and still have enough combos to call our river check/raise.

DuckinDaDeck
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August 30, 2019 - 4:57 pm
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Lol Anthony, we’ve both flip-flopped on our opinion from last night. 😀

Maniackid11
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August 30, 2019 - 5:13 pm
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 So we did laugh. Last night, you basically convinced me the same thing with the Ad blocker because that made the most sense to me. He could value bet AdKx, AdQx, AdJx, AdTx on the river and also call a check/raise with those hands because then your value range dramatically narrows to like TTs, A7, T7. which is more of a reason for villain to call a river check/raise with AdTx. Becuase that hand blocks your full house range and nut flush draw range. These hands would effectively be bluff catchers but the ones he’s likely to call your river check/raise with.

I was saying (after you pointed out the Ad blocker) that villain betting AQ on the river without the Ace of diamonds was a bluff, not a value bet.

Maniackid11
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August 30, 2019 - 5:25 pm
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3for3 said
I looked at this hand on PIO.  The solver does not like Villain flop bet size, it much preferred using 70% of pot.  It occasionally check raises your hand on the flop.

The turn is a mix for you, both as a donk, and a check raise, but mostly just check call as you did.  I think it is taking an aggressive line about 10% of the time.

The river is also a mix, but still mostly just check call.  The hand that PIO turns into a bluff on the river with the most frequency is Ad4, which has blockers all over the place, to diamonds; and full houses.  

These assumptions all center around Villains range for a 30% pot bet, when he had the option to bet 70%.  I am going to rerun, and see if we only give Villain one bet size (which I suspect may be the case) how things change. 

It doesn’t change too much, although you take the more passive line you chose almost all of the time.   I guess this is not surprising, since Villain’s range is stronger when he only had 1 bet size, as opposed to choosing the smaller of 2 bet sizes.

PIO raises the nut flush, and better, and still likes a counterfeited A4 as its favorite bluff raises.  

This last part is something to consider in general.  When I am counterfeited, I often go into c/f mode.  A cool play is to check raise those hands, since you block many full houses…  

70% pot on the flop?! That’s actually pretty neat to consider. I don’t think I’d think to go that big. But it makes more sense.

So 90% of the time PIO suggests that we check/call the turn and 10% of the time we lead/ check/raise? Interesting. I am guessing that favoring the passive approach has more to do with the Ace not being in our hand, which is why it occasionally mixes in a check raise on the flop also.

When you say PIO turns Ad4 into a bluff, how does it bluff that hand? By leading, check/raising or a combo of the two?

Your opponent is not going to expect you to check/raise the second nut hand, which could make it a decent hand to check/raise the river with.

3for3
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August 31, 2019 - 1:11 am
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To be clear, I only gave PIO 30 and 70 as choices.  It didn’t like 30 as opposed to 70.  That doesn’t mean 40 or 50 or 60 wouldn’t be better.

Maniac, It turns Ad4x into a bluff by check raising.  PIO doesn’t lead the river much.  It generally doesn’t donk, and here is no exception, it’s donking range on this river is just under 3%.  It is mostly donking the hands with zero showdown value like 98.  A4 is a 100% check.  Only when Villain bets does PIO change its mind and turn A4 into a bluff. Before A4 did have some showdown value…

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August 31, 2019 - 12:24 pm
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I tried 50/65/80 percent of the pot. It prefers 80% with most of its betting range.  Then I gave it 60/80/100.  It split between 60/80 with about 1/6 of its bets being full pot.  So, my conclusion is that if we are going to use 1 bet size (which I prefer to do), it should be in the 70-80% of pot here.  

 

What general characteristics led us to this betting size?  SPR=6.  We have range advantage, our equity is 62%.  Board has lots of draws; a 2 flush, one OESD and many gut shots.  It also has some natural value targets, weaker Ax will call, although PIO does mix in some folds with its bad Ax, I’d guess most players won’t fold.

DuckinDaDeck
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September 1, 2019 - 8:58 am
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Thanks for all the PIO work dude, that’s really interesting stuff. Almost none of the regs in my games bet flops this large with any frequency, which I imagine makes it even better since they won’t be used to playing against it either. I love it, definitely will be looking for spots to start using a much larger sizing.

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September 1, 2019 - 10:12 am
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That’s super interesting stuff! I totally get the A4 with the Ad. I also see your point on the larger sizing. I do like the idea of larger sizing on these types of boards when there’s a ton of draw hands out there that probably won’t fold (or shouldn’t fold) to a flop bet. So we build the pot here. I would assume if the diamond, a queen, a king, a jack, an 8 come in on the turn we are shutting down, yeah? Or, which of those cards would be better for barreling? I would imagine the diamond would best if we have the Ace of diamonds. Actually yeah now that I think about it a low diamond was literally perfect. I doubt a bigger diamond would have changed much on the turn for the guy with the Ace of diamonds but it could be a deal breaker for the river. Very interesting stuff.

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September 2, 2019 - 10:19 am
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Couple guesses without looking closely at Pio details:

1. Aggression is low in general on three-flush boards. It’s hard to bluff them without a blocker and when you have a blocker you often have a hand too good to block. It’s also kind of hard to get value with hands like yours because you block Villain’s calling range. Basically blocker effects are just huge relative to other boards.

2. One factor not mentioned w/r/t large c-bet size on flop is two broadway cards. These boards tend to have low betting frequency because stuff like KK/QQ don’t benefit protection, 99 is too far behind to bet, T9 can’t make two overcards fold because they have gutshot. So c-betting range is more polarized than on more dynamic flops where there are lots of ways for bluffs to have equity, thin value bets to deny equity, etc. More polarized range = bigger bet size.

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September 2, 2019 - 11:28 am
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Foucault said
Couple guesses without looking closely at Pio details:

1. Aggression is low in general on three-flush boards. It’s hard to bluff them without a blocker and when you have a blocker you often have a hand too good to block. It’s also kind of hard to get value with hands like yours because you block Villain’s calling range. Basically blocker effects are just huge relative to other boards.

2. One factor not mentioned w/r/t large c-bet size on flop is two broadway cards. These boards tend to have low betting frequency because stuff like KK/QQ don’t benefit protection, 99 is too far behind to bet, T9 can’t make two overcards fold because they have gutshot. So c-betting range is more polarized than on more dynamic flops where there are lots of ways for bluffs to have equity, thin value bets to deny equity, etc. More polarized range = bigger bet size.  

Andrew, this is super interesting!

1. So you’re saying on the turn here, we should be ranging villain with some sort of blocker hand because like AQ or AK without a diamond wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) be betting because of the board texture? That makes so much sense. If this is true, it’s harder for us to get (more) value from villain because of the fact that he could have us crushed with a better flush, so we benefit from a passive approach. Wouldn’t that also make it harder for an Ace high flush to get value since the only hands that could call are worse kx flushes? I think even a queen high flush would have a hard time calling 3 streets, a J high flush would definitely have a hard time.

2. Basically we can range the cbet in a matter of strictly AK AQ AJ AT with or without the Ace of Diamonds (mainly on the flop). Or KQ KJ JQ with or with out diamonds. Also sets, AA and TTs and 77s I guess. Aside from that range, all other hands would be better played as checks? I think I am understanding that correctly (correct me if I am wrong). So if the more polarized range = bigger bet size, how do we range the smaller bet size? And how do we range the caller on the turn?  Does a T still call the turn bet? I guess T would still be incentivized by the bluffs in villains range, correct?

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September 2, 2019 - 6:07 pm
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1. I’m saying the fact that we block worse flushes and also will have trouble finding good bluffing candidates makes it tough to check-raise this for value.

2. I’m responding to the speculation about why Pio prefers a large bet size in this spot, which seemed to surprise some people.

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