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(4 votes) 
July 7, 2012
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…..anager.net
NL Holdem $400(BB) Poker Stars Game#90865056393
Prophead340 ($29,803)
xXOLIVATOXx ($9,759)
Jedhiroz ($19,599)
pablito_2121 ($15,618)
KOKY3135 ($9,249)
bompa ($5,099)
Mergen ($5,215)
zilbeee ($5,621)
My Brim Low ($19,867)
Jedhiroz antes $40
pablito_2121 antes $40
KOKY3135 antes $40
bompa antes $40
Mergen antes $40
zilbeee antes $40
My Brim Low antes $40
Prophead340 antes $40
xXOLIVATOXx antes $40
Prophead340 posts (SB) $200
xXOLIVATOXx posts (BB) $400
Dealt to Prophead340 Js Ks (29,000chips)
fold, fold, fold,
bompa raises to $5,059 (AI)
fold,
zilbeee raises to $5,581 (AI)
fold, fold, fold,
July 3, 2010
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Nah… I tend to not bother with a hand like this since it's likely 1 of them has us dominated. You're sort of hoping to be against 2 pocket pairs lower than JJ here. Plus I don't want to have to think about what that does to my table image if I call.
November 30, 2012
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I would have to have some notes on bompa that he is capable putting it in here as wide as 67+s JTo+ and a read that zilbeee is aware of this and is calling with any PP and any Ax to consider calling here. And even then I think I end up folding. With a 70-75bb stack it's spewy to waste ships in this spot when stacks indicate that you should pickup a high percent of blinds and antes.
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July 7, 2012
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I did actually fold but thought the spot was interesting because of my stack. If I call and loose then I still have nearly 25k and still well ahead of average and dosent really effect how I can play at this point, if I call and win then I have over 41k and a top 10 stack at this point.
I did run the numbers through Stove assuming a 15% range for the first shove and 12% range for the call and did a cEV calc and it is slightly negative.
November 30, 2012
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Good fold 🙂 It’s easy to forget that having the bigstack does not equal money, when you try accumulating chips for the purpose of reaching a certain number your play suffers. Playing as optimal as the cards and table dynamic allows you and accumulating chips in that fashion will serve you much better than trying to rush and take spewy and marginal spots in order to be chipleader. You might reach it some times, but more often than not early and mid stage chipleaders don’t final table for the very same reason that they managed to be chipleader in the first place.
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July 10, 2012
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Great post Nqon. I found myself doing this when I started playing, taking the chip lead in early/middle stages, then noticing I had dropped to like 4th or something and try to regain the chip lead by making unnecessary plays.
July 6, 2012
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Maybe im the worst, but this spot seems super juicy/
Tempting. Original jammer can be super wide & 2nd jammee
Can have lots of pairs and random Ax hands that he thinks are ahead of
Original jammers range.
Not necessarily snapping here, but i def think you are
(Turbulence) are assigning these villians with too tight
Of a range.
Maybe rerun the #s and include some middle suited
connectors, all pairs, suited one gappers J9+, A8+,
K9s+,Q10+. For original jammer
And maybe 15-17% of hands for 2nd jammer.
Then id like to discuss chips gained vs. Chips lost
And see what the math dictates & see how truly
Plus or minus EV this is
Think this is a really good hand/spot to post and i
See it come up commonly. To spew or not to spee? And
Is does the math say its a spew vs. A looser range for both.?
I think its a lot closer to +EV than we think
November 30, 2012
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Okey. Let's do this then.
We have to call 5181 to win 11600 so we need 30.87% equity to make it an even cEV call. Now we can argue all day how our tEV is +11600chips vs -5181chips. Normally we would say that at this stage of the tourney (kinda hard to determine, but 200/400 is usually a bit less than an hour away from the bubble in most decent sized) that -5181chips is more -tEV than +11600 is +tEV. But lets get back to that and look at cEV first.
Scenario 1 – wide shove and wide call:
Open shover (bomba) has 34.5% range: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o
Call/shover (zilbeee) has 22% range: 66+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+
This gives KJs: 33.761%
Bomba: 29.938%
Zilbee: 36.301%
So in this case it's a call for 2.9% +cEV if we assume this range is correct . To put that in perspective, given that the above range is correct we will on average earn 1.4bb (+486 chips) in this situation.
Scenario 2 – Nash shove and nash call
Bomba has a nash 19.8% range: 22+,A7s+,A5s-A3s,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo
Zilbee has a nash 10% range to over-shove: 55+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+
This gives KJs: 29.104%
Bomba: 29.868%
Zilbee: 41.028%
So in this spot this is an average of -1.7%cEV meaning we on average will lose 0.7bb (-285).
My Conclusion
It's a very close to neutral EV spot, but taking cEV neutral spots with no fold equity in poker is like betting red or black. You dimish your edge and that should only be done when you don't have an edge. So unless you're sitting with players that you know are on average better than you this is a clear fold. Now the counterpoint is if you think that +11600 chips will give you more of an +tEV than -5181 will give you an -tEV spot. To this I would say that you are the bigstack at the table, giving you more chips will not give substantially more room to take advantage of your poker edge. You are deep enough to play any stack bigger than you as close to optimal aswell.
So my conclusion is it's a fold unless you don't have an edge on the table/against the field.
*Long post and english as second language, so please ignore weird formulations/language.
Check out my "going pro" poker journal, updated weekly with wins, losses and my progress as a player:
October 6, 2010
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July 7, 2012
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@Nqon – thanks for the detailed response and well thought out arguements. And your English is great, no problem there at all.
I didnt realise that the actual Hand post hadn't put the name of the Tourney in, it was the Sunday Million, although I dont think this would really make a difference to the 'spot'.
October 6, 2010
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it prolly does make a difference becasue its the sunday million, because it is earlyish stages, so we can assume that most people on your table are bad. so in that case i would fold more often.
if you had said the Sunday 500 or something, then it could definitely be closer to a call.
October 21, 2012
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Nice analysis.
I think the point Nqon made about you already being the chipleader is a great one. We always hear about not taking marginal spots because we are better than the field. Sometimes this leads us to pass on spots until we are down to 20ish bb. At this point, it doesnt matter how much better we are. We are fighting for our lives just like every one else.
What we rarely hear about is taking a marginal spot to get a bigger stack so that we can actually use the skill edge we have. I think this is the hallmark of bigdog'’s game.
But that is not the case in this spot with 19K. If we had 9K, maybe we take the spot so we can “do work”. Suddenly, the prey becomes the predator.
December 28, 2012
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Great thread and great analysis Nqon, ty.
When I first read it I felt it was one of those ugly close spots, but I think the numbers have proved it to be a fold (and sigh when the flop comes KJJ!) 
.
I think the point about Bigdog's game from Loxxii is a great shout too.
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