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Donk Bets & Balance
huge
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February 18, 2015 - 8:00 pm
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These thoughts about donk bets were prompted by @Foucault / Andrew's excellent “$2K Maryland Live Tournament HH” series, but they're more general than a response to a specific hand so I thought they belonged in the general MTT forum…
 
Andrew says something like “facing a donk bet, we have to make sure we are not folding an exploitably large percentage of our range” – so if villain donk bets half-pot, we shouldn't fold more than 1/3 of the time or V's bet will show an immediate profit even if he has zero equity when called. That's a paraphrase & not all that Andrew has to say or think about donk betting, and of course I know that he knows that if V is donking a very tight/strong range then we shouldn't be calling super wide. He's talking about a situation where we assume V to be either donking with a balanced range or with a very weak range attempting to exploit our tendency to fold too often (and he makes that assumption against Brian Hastings in video #5 in the series and calls down with a marginal hand vs Hastings' triple barrel).
 
That all seems clear on its surface, and certainly seems more sensible than my typical reaction, which is “HOLY CRAP! This dude is donk-betting me!?! WHY???”.  And it seems like the right place to start when facing a continuation bet, even without much knowledge of a villain's skill level, ranges, etc.  Almost everyone makes C-bets and it's safe to assume facing an unknown opponent's C-bet that it could easily be a bluff, and even that different opponents' C-bet ranges will look at least vaguely similar, consisting of most of their strongest hands and some of their weaker ones.  I think it's safe to say that you can't play well never C-betting, or even by C-betting only when you hit the flop.  

 

I feel much less comfortable with any of those guesses/assumptions/claims applied to donk bets.  I think there are good players who never or very rarely make donk bets.  I think there are good (and bad) players who only make donk bets in very particular situations, likely with unbalanced ranges, either in a specific attempt (by good players) to exploit an opponent's weakness or (more likely by weaker players) out of fear or misguided “I put you on AK” conviction.  I speculate wildly that if you know nothing about your opponents other than rough skill estimate groupings – let's say “Lowest Quartile”, “2nd Q”, “3rd Q”, “Top Q” & “Top 2%” – and then collated their donk-betting ranges, you would see very different things in those 5 buckets. Maybe it goes something like this:  

 

1st Q: top pair or better (“I have a hand, I'm betting”)

 

2nd Q: much rarer, some protection bets w/nutted, maybe some “I have a pair and I put you on overcards” bets. 

 

3rd Q: add in some small blocking bets with draws, and some random “I like to be aggressive a lot” bets

 

Top Q: betting with a specific purpose – to induce a raise, to define opponent's hand, to leverage opponent's stack efficiently, etc. STILL probably not a particularly balanced range.

 

Top 2%: It's optimal to have a donk-betting range in this spot; estimate of GTO/balanced donking range is X but I'll adjust it to Y based on my opponent's range/tendencies/abilities and my tactical plan for the rest of the hand. (And I'm guessing that even most top 2% players don't take this approach, but maybe some of them approximate it intuitively)

 

Again, that's all speculation & guesswork, but there are a few general conclusions that I feel mildly confident of:
1. Individuals' ranges and motivations for donking are much more specific & narrow & varied than with C-bets.  Thus it is more possible and more actionable to decipher a donk bet and react exploitatively.  (I first wrote “more valuable” but donk bets happen so much less frequently than C-bets that I retracted it)

 

2. Knowing nothing about an opponent, their donk-betting range is likely to be pretty strong and unlikely to include many weak hands “added in for the sake of balance”.  A lot but not all opponents' donking range is probably capped, but perhaps only slightly – eg they would donk with top-2 but go for a checkraise with top set.  LOTS of clues can help to improve ranging guesses: bet size, board texture, live visual-profiling, general aggro level, etc.

 

3.  Only if I strongly suspect that an opponent is elite (ie much better than me) am I going to take a game-theory & balance approach as my primary lens to view and react to a donk bet.  

 

I don't make a lot of donk bets, and when I do it's generally for a specific exploitative or tactical reason.  My donk bets are slightly balanced (more or less accidentally) because they include some strong hands and some draws, but after thinking about and writing all of this maybe I should add in a few of the strongest hands that I would otherwise check-fold to a C-bet.  Does that seem like the right adjustment to make my range a little more balanced? (Maybe better to donk with a few of the weakest hands I would check-call vs a C-bet?)

 

On the receiving end, I used to be completely frozen by donk bets … Then I learned their name and decided that donk bets were stupid and that I would raise them a lot, which actually worked pretty well for a while … Then it seemed like players were donking with nutted hands more often, or just figured out that my raises were BS and 3-bet me into oblivion. Now I try really hard to figure out what kind of donk bettor I'm up against and tailor my reaction to what I think their motivation is.  I still sometimes raise donk bets with air, especially small bets on coordinated boards (because “what are you protecting??”) but I try to be aware of the possibility that a tricky opponent might be donking into me to induce a raise.  If someone donks 3/4 or full-pot into me, I tend to assume they're quite strong absent very compelling evidence to the contrary.  If someone reads my mind (or this post) and decides to defend their BB 100% & then donk 3/4-pot into me with their whole range (or beter yet, with the bottom half of their range), they'll exploit me for a while.  I don't think I've run into many players like that, and my hope is that I would figure something out quickly enough to not be too horribly damaged.  

 

I'm curious to know what other people (named Brokos or otherwise) think of all this, how you make or react to donk bets, and whether someone actually slogged all the way to the end of this tome…
 
Foucault

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February 18, 2015 - 9:09 pm
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I slogged 🙂

First off, some corrections:

“He’s talking about a situation where we assume V to be either donking with a balanced range or with a very weak range attempting to exploit our tendency to fold too often (and he makes that assumption against Brian Hastings in video #5 in the series and calls down with a marginal hand vs Hastings’ triple barrel).”

The Villain in that hand was not Hastings. He seemed decent enough, but not nearly as good as Hastings.

I’m not making any assumptions. The point of looking for unexploitable continuing ranges is so that you don’t have to make assumptions about Villain’s range and what he might or might not be trying to accomplish.

I think your post is very good and I think you’re right that in many situations, possibly including this one, it’s better to make some assumptions about Villain’s donking strategy and then craft an exploitive counter-strategy. But realize that a balanced response will work reasonably well no matter what Villain’s actual strategy – it’s not something that only works against a particular type of player or range.

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February 19, 2015 - 4:11 am
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Foucault said:

I slogged 🙂

First off, some corrections:

“He's talking about a situation where we assume V to be either donking with a balanced range or with a very weak range attempting to exploit our tendency to fold too often (and he makes that assumption against Brian Hastings in video #5 in the series and calls down with a marginal hand vs Hastings' triple barrel).”

The Villain in that hand was not Hastings. He seemed decent enough, but not nearly as good as Hastings.

I'm not making any assumptions. The point of looking for unexploitable continuing ranges is so that you don't have to make assumptions about Villain's range and what he might or might not be trying to accomplish.

I think your post is very good and I think you're right that in many situations, possibly including this one, it's better to make some assumptions about Villain's donking strategy and then craft an exploitive counter-strategy. But realize that a balanced response will work reasonably well no matter what Villain's actual strategy – it's not something that only works against a particular type of player or range.

 

Thanks for the slogging and sorry for my mistakes and misrepresentations.  I considered going back and making sure I had my attributions correct before posting but I had already spent too much time writing the damn thing – I would make a bad journalist. 

 

I probably don't need to clarify this, but I wasn't criticizing your play vs not-Hastings – well, I think I don't like your river call but (A) that's not that relevant to what I'm posting about and (B) I think you're maybe ambivalent about it anyway and (C) my “not liking” a poker decision you make is a pretty amusing concept right off the bat.  I'm mostly writing this out to clarify it for myself and to get your and others' feedback.  If there's any dissent in my writings it is my claim that, with the current state of donk-betting in the range of tournaments I play (which overlap somewhat with yours but are mostly a rung or so down the buyin ladder), constructing an unexploitable continuing range is maybe not the best first criteria to apply when facing an unknown (and presumably un-elite) opponent's donk bet.  I don't expect the High Priest of Balance to openly agree with that claim – I'll settle for not being summarily excommunicated.

 

(Maybe some day Han Darrington will write a book espousing the virtues of donk-betting – renaming it “CHAMP-betting” – and everyone will start doing it, and I'll have to start fretting about getting exploited. Until then I'll keep whistling my exploitative tune – most of the time)

 

I keep thinking of a parallel/corollary – I'm not sure it quite fits or supports my point all that well, but it seems at least interesting:  

 

You argue very well the value of calling small opens out of the BB because of the excellent immediate odds presented. I think I was doing that already, but something that you (or possibly Nate in the TP premium podcast) said has helped me to clarify the situation and avoid spewing a lot more chips after the flop – namely that because I was getting such good odds on the preflop call, it was OK to just check-fold a pretty high percentage of that weak range on the flop. It might feel like I'm getting exploited because the opener may well have a wide C-bet range, but taken jointly the decisions to defend my BB very wide and then continue on the flop seemingly tightly will be profitable overall, and if I start continuing more on the flop out of fear of getting exploited, then I introduce painful reverse implied odds to the prior decision to defend preflop.  

 

That seems similar to what I'm arguing about responding to donk bets – if, for example, I'm opening from late position against a too-tight BB, I'm getting a great price on my steal attempt so I can do so very wide, possibly with ATC (even more profitable if the BB folds too much to my C-bets). In that spot it seems OK to fold pretty tightly when the BB deviates from my desired script and donk-bets me, because (A) taken jointly the two decisions are still working out great and (B) if I start calling his donk bets out of fear of exploitation I'm likely to wipe out the profitability of my open & C-bet routine.  Obviously if he's smart enough to figure out that I'm folding to his donks, AND that in order to donk more he's going to have to defend more, then I'm screwed, but in my experience players who fold their BB way too much are rarely capable of making one – let alone both – of those adjustments.

 

(I recognize a possible logical fallacy in my “taken jointly they're profitable” concept – I don't want to be making excuses for losing money on one street because I played the last street so awesomely – but the parallel still seems right to me)

 

How often do you (Andrew, or anyone else reading this) donk bet, and under what circumstances?  How well would you escape my donk-bet-profiling if I faced you at a WSOP table (and you were wearing a kick-ass 60-year-old man disguise)? 

 

I think it would be fun & useful to dive into donk-bet data from one of the big(ish)-data poker projects, even if it was from cash games. I'd love to know whether my guesses bear any resemblance to reality in terms of how often players donk with weak or marginal hands, how distinct & varied individual players' ranges are, and how much that correlates to stakes, board texture, bet sizing, etc. If you know any way I could attempt that without Herculean effort or non-nitcast expense, let me know.

 

-HugeDonk

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February 20, 2015 - 1:07 am
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Intresting comments above.

 

Tbh I hardly ever donk bet so when i face one i have no idea how deal with it. I've noticed though lately that a lot of players tend to donk bet into more often and i feel that if i call i'm just going to face more difficult descions on the turn and river.

 

A common example, hero raises from BTN with AhKh BB calls flop 6dJc2c BB decides to lead out ……..hero folds. Now they could do this literally like everytime and i'd probably fold. I'm pretty sure this is exploitable. Now if the same opponent keeps leading into me what do we do about it? 

 

basically this goes back to what u were saying about balance ,folding too much and not calling too much , how do we figure that out? 

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