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Final table ICM
kardi31
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July 9, 2017 - 3:26 pm
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$7.5 PSKO Hyper turbo on pokerstars.

PokerStars – 25000/50000 Ante 12500 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 83.48 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 34)
UTG: 13.9 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 67)
MP: 14.11 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
CO: 7.99 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (BTN): 6.92 BB
SB: 19.04 BB (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)

6 players post ante of 0.25 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has Aspade Jdiamond

UTG raises to 2 BB, MP calls 2 BB, fold,

Hero? 

Payouts : 1st – 1.3k, 5th – $230, 6th – $150

 

I saw 2 ways to go : 

1 – fold, let those 2 players kill each other, get pay jump to $230 and hope for the best. 

2 – there is already 6bb in the pot, I’ve got 6bb behind, if I shove, I could possibly throw out of the hand one of my opponents(as UTG would have to reshove, so possibly MP could fold) and hope for a flip. If I win, I’ve got 20bb and 2nd place. 

Your thoughts? 

 

Hero raises to 6.67 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG raises to 13.65 BB and is all-in, MP calls 11.65 BB

Flop: (36.97 BB, 3 players) Kclub 8diamond 9club

Turn: (36.97 BB, 3 players) 2heart

River: (36.97 BB, 3 players) 7spade

UTG shows 5spade 5club (One Pair, Fives)

Main Pot [23.02 BB]: (Pre 20%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#1 [13.95 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)

MP shows Aheart Aclub (One Pair, Aces)

Main Pot [23.02 BB]: (Pre 72%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)
Side Pot#1 [13.95 BB]: (Pre 78%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Aspade Jdiamond (High Card, Ace)

Main Pot [23.02 BB]: (Pre 8%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)

MP wins 36.97 BB

theginger45

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July 10, 2017 - 10:19 pm
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If you double you don’t have 2nd place, you just have a 20bb stack in an insanely high-variance tournament.

I imagine ICM would tell us this is a comfortable fold here. You have zero chance of getting both players to fold, and there’s another 8bb stack who will hit the blinds before you. It’s also worth noting that FGS calculations on HRC frequently tell us to shove a little tighter on the BTN and in the CO than we might expect, by virtue of the fact that we can wait longer before going through the blinds.

There’s also a good chance that with the shallow stack sizes, these two players will get it in on the flop fairly frequently. As a result, one of them is likely to bust or be crippled on this specific hand at least some % of the time, which should make you even more likely to fold.

If you have 15bb and some fold equity here as well as the opportunity to put a ton of ICM pressure on the other players themselves, that’s one thing, but when you’re waiting it out a little and you have no fold equity at all, I wouldn’t be shocked if ICM told you to get it in with something like 99+ AK+ here.

Collin Moshman

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July 14, 2017 - 4:09 pm
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Interesting spot, and I agree with theginger’s nice analysis that we should fold here. 

While ICM does for sure tighten up our range in these spots, with the combination of us having only 7bb and being the shortest stack, we don’t have to play nearly as tight relative to cEV as normal. The main thing that swings this hand to a fold for me is the opener’s stats. 67 hands isn’t a huge sample, but he’s been playing a tight-passive 15/10 with a 0% 3bet. When he MR’s UTG off a very mid-stacked 14bb, that makes me pretty concerned — I think a lot of the time here he has QQ+ and is looking to induce. 

If for example the initial raiser was the LAG big stack, called by the same flatter as in this hand, I would shove. But here folding should be our best option.

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