Tough spot. As u mentioned the SB could be sqeezing light here basing his play from his reads of the bttn. Your image is solid so the SB has to know this if he's been paying attention. I think ur up against a real hand here and dont mind folding.

bjizz

JDOG1645 said:

I fold…you have a good stack and thats too much action for JJ without a reason to play the hand.  The cold 4bet raise should be sending up a warning flag.

^^^I would think this…however sometimes your gut is right, just that sometimes this time???

This spot still keeps bothering me, more strategy wise than hand wise…On the one side JJ is pretty marginal in this spot, but on the other side I have a chance to double or maybe triple up and become a chip leader… With my read of situation I think that I'm going to get money in good, more often than bad, being against smaller pair and two overs, or against 3 overs, or BTN could fould and I could be against some  SB's random crap… Here is how hand played:

Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300.00/t600.00 Blinds – 9 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

Yeshaya (UTG): t13955.00 23.26 BBs
MrTimCaum (UTG+1): t11370.00 18.95 BBs
JohnnyBelow (UTG+2): t35300.00 58.83 BBs

yadio1111 (MP1): t11920.00 19.87 BBs
ElMastermind (MP2): t26210.00 43.68 BBs
keepplaya (CO): t24228.00 40.38 BBs
threat89 (BTN): t20873.00 34.79 BBs
winwin07 (SB): t22027.00 36.71 BBs
DedoDeGorila (BB): t11532.00 19.22 BBs

Pre Flop: (t900) keepplaya is CO with J J
5 folds, keepplaya raises to t1225, threat89 raises to t3600, winwin07 raises to t21952, 1 fold, keepplaya raises to t24153, threat89 calls t17273 all in

Flop: (t65377) A 2 4

Turn: (t65377) 5

River: (t65377) T

Final Pot: t65377
keepplaya shows J J
threat89 shows K A
winwin07 shows Q 9
keepplaya wins t2308.00
threat89 wins t63669.00
(Rake: t-600)

I get my money in with almost 40% of equity, so it was clearly a +ev spot… But again I'm risking my tournament life in a spot where I will bust 60% or even 65% or more percent (to add for the times when someone will have a bigger pp) of a time, and when I win I'll have enough chips to be in good shape when the field is down to about 20 ppl or less, and I will have a descent chance to play for FT… So, what keeps bothering me is, if the risk/reward ratio is ok for me at this stage of tournament to take this kind of a gamble, strategy wise? Or should I wait and take this kind of gambling spots later in tournament when I could win amount of chips that will guarantee me a seat in FT?

hey man, EXCELLENT POST.

I have been trying to figure out how i want to respond to this for a while now………..i will attempt to put my thoughts into words a little later on tonight.

imo its a little bit to early for a gamble like this.  Theire can so much happen in a tournament between 70 to 20 people.

The pot doesnt guarantee you a good stack when 20people remain. I like fkcoolers point you get it better in, during this phase.

Despite your read was fine this time their will be a lot times when your wrong.  And then you are not flipping for a close triple up.

Imo its minimal plus ev here in the long run, but a very high variance in it.  And therefore the ft is too far away.

However this counts only for this pre ante situation. Later its a whole other story.

Honestly I thought the hand happened at a ealier blind stage.

So with this stacksizes and your reads of the gameflow, positions of the players. Its a much clearer call/repush. The Button has to fold a lot of hands

here.

I think most pro´s would stick it in here, with your reads. Even though its a high variance spot.

Have you tried the equitie and pot odd calc on the tpe theory vid for marginal pre situations?