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Hero fold full house on the river?
packallama
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April 17, 2013 - 3:19 am
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This hand is in a $60 7.5k gtd deep-stacked (5k starting stack) on Merge Network. I don't have the HH for this hand because my HUD is not working properly at the moment. ith that said, I am very confident that I remembered all of the streets and sizings correctly. It is early in the tournament and I was multitabling at the time so I am virtually readless besides HUD stats. Both I and villain had roughly the 5k starting stack to start the hand. It is t60 and Hero is dealth 88 on the button. 

Preflop: fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 120, Hero calls 120, fold, fold. 

(330) Flop: Td Ts 9d

CO checks, Hero checks.

(330) Turn: 8d

CO checks, Hero bets 220, CO raises to 440, Hero calls 440.

(1210) River: Jd

CO bets 907, Hero???

CO's preflop range is most likely wide considering he is in LP and opened for the minimum. It is fairly standard to 2.5-3x at this level so even though we are readless about his usual opening sizing, I think it is safe to assume that to some extent CO's range is weaker than if he were to 3x. Looking back on the hand I think 3betting is the most optimal play considering my assumptions about his opening range. I tend to play pre-ante deep-stacked MTTs like cash games and I would certainly 3b for value in a cash game. I would make it slightly larger than normal to offer him worse odds because he min-raised and we are fairly deep. 365 seems like the perfect number for me. In game I flat called with the intention of continuing on most flop textures that contain only one overcard. I think I most likely have the best hand and I am not set-mining from these positions. 

I expect a random viallain to continuation bet this flop with almost his entire range because it is a paired board, even though it is connected and two toned. Once he checks flop I think we can discount many hands from his range. Those hands include overpairs, lone Tx, 9x, and stong draws such as QJ and diamonds. I think betting flop when checked to is optimal because we take the initiative and all overcards and 9s are bad turn cards. We can realistically get value from ace highs, all broadway cards, and underpairs. In game I decided to check and peel a turn card IP. 

We turn gin. Not only do we have a full house, but it likely gives villain a straight and/or flushdraw while drawing dead or close to it. He checks once more and I bet 2/3 pot to build a pot with what is almost always the best hand. Villain check raises min and I call. I am fairly confused what villain's range is on the turn. He is representing a straight, flush, or full house, but my hand is way too strong to fold. I think calling is infinitely better than raising and folding. I would appreciate speculation on what villain both checks flop and then check raises turn. 

The Jd is the most interesting river card in the deck because it completes four cards to a straight flush. We are now losing to the Qd and the 7d, as well as JJ, TT, 99, JT, T9, and T8. I think that we can exclude JJ and JT because they most certainly leads at least the flop or turn. T8 should be discounted because it did not bet the flop, but could certainly check raise the turn after filling up. TT, 99, and T9 are the ideal hands to slowplay from the flop. I don't think any of those combos should be discounted. The Qd is certainly in his turn check raising range as a semibluff and in several value hands. I think we can discount the 7d because I don't think he check raises any hands that contain the 7d on the turn. 

So far villain has played fairly fishy by min-raising preflop, not continuation betting a fairly wet flop, and then check raising minimum on a incredibly wet board on the turn. If my assumption is correct then I am not sure he value bets worse than 88 on the river. Do you think he value bets the Ad or Kd on the river? Then again, I am not entirely sure villain ends up on the river with the Ad or Kd. If he is unlikely to value bet worse on the river, how often does he show up with a hand that needs to bluff? I have a hard time coming up hands that villain decides to take this line as a bluff. Most of the hands that would need to bluff would either bet flop or turn rather than check flop and check raise turn. If those assumptions are true, and they might all be completely false given that we have no previous knowledge of villain, that turns our eights-full into a bluffcatcher. Do you think we are getting the right price to call on the river vs his range?

If we are not getting the right price to bluffcatch, could bluff raising this river be more protitable than calling or folding. We would be representing the Qd or 7d. We would fold out all of his bluffs and we might get him to fold a full house or quads to a big enough river raise. I am not hesitant whatsoever to make a big bluff early in a tournament if I think it is +EV enough. It certainly would be a creative play. If we bluff raise, how much would we need to get him to fold his full houses? Would he fold quads to a river shove?

I am posting this hand to look for advice on how others would play every street. Feel free to focus on streets other than the river. Could 3b folding turn be proftiable? Do you think 3betting preflop is standard BU vs CO? Do you bet this flop when checked to? Do you snap call river or hero fold? 

 

TL;DR: Hero ends up with the lowest full house on the river facing a bet on a four to a straightflush board. Call, fold, or raise?

redvulture61
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April 17, 2013 - 1:22 pm
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Intresting hand indeed. In my honest opinion this is a spot where a player needs to swallow their pride look past realative hand strength and fold. Is it really a hero fold given the board runout? Villian having a Jd or 7d in their range given the preflop action.  You only really beat a blufff here i think i don't think villian ever valuebets worse. As for options of  raising or calling i think raising is the worst option of the 3 especially without much imformation of who your opponent coupled with the fact players get really sticky with their full houses and quads that wont fold and you will never get called by worse when you do raise. Calling is ok you could just call and shrug off as a cooler and besides game theory dictates that you should never fold the top of your range in this spot unless making a expoitative adjustment. But i just don't think villians at these levels would be good enough to expoilt this. 

Foucault

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April 18, 2013 - 2:03 pm
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I agree with 3b preflop, and I don't think it has to be as large as you say. 320 – 360 seems right to me. My biggest concern would be not wanting to set Villain up to blow me out of the pot with a large 4-bet, I don't really care whether he calls or folds. 

 

As played this sure seems like a fold to me. I'd say this should be the very top of your folding range, and that there's actually a pretty big difference between T8 and 99 here in that having a T in your hand greatly reduces the number of combos that beat you.

packallama
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April 21, 2013 - 1:27 pm
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What would be the bottom of our river calling range here? 88 should be close to if not the top of our folding range. Call 99 or T8 and above?

Sprangle
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May 6, 2013 - 12:48 pm
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Did you consider Ad10x? I mean, I can’t count how many times that I get min check raised on the turn when the third of a suit comes up on the board only to find out that the villain has the ace high draw and is just trying to rep an A high flush knowing that you don’t have the ace of diamonds.

As far as his ranges, I think you are spot on for a good player. This is why I always have sharkscope or OPR pulled up to see if the villain is a profitable player thus giving more or less credit to his line.

Not to mention that when the fourth diamond flops a high percentage of players are going to make an aggressive lead out bet here hoping you will fold a better holding. It’s like a blocking bet on steroids. They don’t have it but they are placing a bet that you don’t have it either.

His line does look nutted though. Despite the fact that he could be checking the flop with his aa, kk, qq, ak because it is so early and the villain is oop, you have to consider what does it look like you are repping? By flatting him pf (from the button, where your range should be incredibly wide) and then going check/check on the flop and betting the turn, it looks like you could have 1. A naked ten 2. A draw 3. QJ or lower straight 4. Flush. It doesn’t look like you ever have a boat here. So if I am him, I am thinking to myself if you can withstand some pressure on the wettest of wet boards with anything less than a boat. If I have a flush, I’m thinking it may be good when you just call my min raise. So ask yourself, what does he have you on?

With that all said, I don’t think I am ever folding here. I think I would have done a couple of things differently. I wouldn’t have 3bet because there aren’t antes involved. If you three bet and win, what do you take down? 3.5 bb’s or 210 chips? The real value here is set mining and hoping the blinds come along for the ride, not ISO-ing a min raise when we are 80+ bb’s deep. On the flop I would have probably put out a half pot bet to test the waters. If you get blasted then you can get away right there. If he flats, you can narrow his range further. In addition, if I just barreled the flop he is probably assuming that I will bet the turn as well. So you are most likely to just get called by a made hand and the villain is saving his check raise for the run. When the 8 hits, it obviously gets tricky. I may actually check behind here for two reasons. 1. Don’t want to bloat the pot as I realize the villains call oop is much stronger and could mean that he could have a boat. 2. I disguising the strength of my hand. You have to have a much stronger holding to bet and call a min raise on the turn than to barrel a checked flop. 3. That leads the villain to bet for value on the river and basically begging for a call. I don’t ever think he is betting 3/4 pot on the river and thinks he is getting paid because you just made yourself look susceptible to a flush/straight or a 10. So if you checked the turn back, he never is thinking you will call a large river bet. 3. I’m calling the river. If he has it, then I say nh, cuss the carbon gods, laugh to myself about not falling into his trap and make a note of his line. If he turns up on the river betting an ace high flush, he is getting a green tag and a donkey symbol with a note saying that he has no concept of board texture and to blast my made hands into his made draws. 4. Point is, if he has it, you lose less chips this way but its always easier to be a Monday morning quarterback.

Who knows, I’m weird and play hands really differently sometimes….you have played with me enough to know that. It seems to work out ok.

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