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ICM Fold?
joesmoe88
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May 1, 2013 - 7:01 pm
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Just got done playing a $50 on Lock. Came across this hand on the bubble and wasnt sure if my fold is ok for ICM purposes or if this should be a call. Villian has played fairly tight from what I have seen. Stats are something like 21/16 and his 3 bet is 0 over the 25 hands or so on him.

 

Villian is UTG with about 21k, I am on the button with 22.5k, small blind has 12k and BB has 24k. Blinds are 300/600 60.

UTG raises to 1200, I 3bet to 2800, folds back to UTG and he jams. Does my fold seem ok or is it too nitty?

florianm1
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May 1, 2013 - 7:33 pm
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call JJ+, AQs, AK

and 21/16 seems to be on the looser side

joesmoe88
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May 1, 2013 - 7:42 pm
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I think my feeling at the time was that he is never 4bet jamming unless he has a pair or AK/AQ. I leaned pretty heavily towards the pairs in his range and folded AK. Im not positive on the math but I imagine you dont really wanna be flipping when you can fold and still have 30 bb.

Just did the ICM calculations and I need just over 60% to call. When I give him a range of any pair, AKs-10s, AK-10, KQs, KJs, KQ, KJ my odds are only 56%.

joesmoe88
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May 1, 2013 - 8:13 pm
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I guess just to put everything into context, top 3 get paid $1k, $600, $400.

packallama
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May 2, 2013 - 12:17 am
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If you plan to fold AK to his 3b then you may want to reconsider 3bettin this hand. If I were in UTG's spot, I would be shoving a much wider range than you listed because of ICM. There three stacks around 35-40bb and a short stack with 20bb and the tournament only pays the top 3. This allows the last aggressor in a pot between two of the larger stacks to put a lot of pressure on the other because none of you want to bust before the short stack. If UTG showed you 22 in this spot, it would be correct to fold because ICM outweighs the +cEV of calling. 

With that said, 3betting AK here can be good or bad depending on the width of UTG's opening range and how he will respond to a 3b. The ideal is that UTG opens wide and will respond to a 3b by 4b folding often. Another favorable case case is that he opens wide and will respond passively to a 3b by either folding or calling OOP. The least favorable situation is that he opens a tight range and will respond to a 3b by 4b a majority of his opens. Another more extreme case is that UTG is very loose and will respond to a 3b by 4b shoving a range wide enough that is is +tEV to call 3b call with AK. Use your reads on how UTG will react to a 3b and judge whether or not 3betting AK here is the best play. 

markconkle
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May 3, 2013 - 5:16 pm
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I really don't like 3 bet/folding here when you are so easily exploited by the bubble.  I prefer flatting.

joesmoe88
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May 4, 2013 - 1:09 am
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I couldnt agree more. Looking back, I didnt have a plan of what I would do if he shoved. If I 3bet in this spot it should almost always be with the intention of gii. In real time, I probably just said “Oh I have AK and therefore I have to 3bet”. Whats interesting is that a larger 3bet actually solves both of my problems or like you said I should instead flat.

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