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Live hand from a few months ago
A $300 WPT event about 10 spots away from the bubble.
Villain in the hand is a ~19 year old black kid. He's been really tight. Havent seen him showdown anything that wasn't the nizzles.
Since I strongly suspect he has no clue about anyones stack size but his, the only that matter are mine and his.
I have 40k, he has 25k at 800/1600/200
I am UTG + 1 with 99 and open to 3200, he is two to my left and pretty quickly makes it 8000. I decide to fold. He shows AA.
Next hand i am utg with 99 and open to 3200, he is two to my left and thinks for 10 seconds thn makes it 8000.
Now what?
It's obv a jam or fold. I think you are more than likely flipping but theres a decent chance you are crushed again based on his image. Plus I think he's really strong here again based on the fact you just opened utg+1 and folded and now you are opening utg. He has to assume you aren't doing it light and I highly doubt he is ever making a play with air. If you rip it in and get called and lose you are really hurtin'. You should save your 20bb stack and wait for some good 3b shove spots.
Yeah obviously never calling. I think it might be a little more interesting if we had TT or JJ here.
Back to back like this, I jam all day especially on money bubble. He is a nit and you can get him to fold AQ and pairs all the way up to JJ.
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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Can't imagine him doing this light with given image. If he does, well vwp him great spot. Think it is very unlucky this is back to back but you are probably facing a range of 10s+ ajs+ aqo+ and are flipping at best when you are called. Sigh fold I think and wait for a good reshove spot. Structure is probably decent and allows you to make the money or wait for a decent hand/spot. Doubt a nit is 3bet folding a 20 bb stack to a back to back utg+1 and utg open so I think his range is what I said.
Due to him tanking slightly this time around is an indication that he has a strong hand but is struggling with his decision. I honestly think given our info in this spot, he will fold a very large percentage of the time. Just my opinion, i could be wrong.
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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Doubt he makes it 8k and folds with 22k behind just atrocious. The whole timing tell thing I don't agree with. He may be deciding to 3bet call JJ or AK here instead of jsut cramming it. That could be his decision that he wants to pause and think about.
hawkeyeK9 said:
Back to back like this, I jam all day especially on money bubble. He is a nit and you can get him to fold AQ and pairs all the way up to JJ.
his range isnt wide enough to even get enough folds,even if he is 3betting 99+ and AQ+ and your hoping he might fold AQ and 99 (1 combo) and 1010 (6 combos), he is never 3bet/folding here generally, and a nits 3betting range after jsut 3betting is never light. AK, JJ+ none of which is ever folding. as a nits flatting range is like up to AQ and 1010 alot of the time i really really dont think we get any folds and get it in crushed way too much especially given position and history.
Also i think this sort of timing tell is overrated, as its not super weak and a nit is never making moves UTG v UTG+1, any hand he decides to 3bet he is going with.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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agree with pretty much everything Danny is saying ITT. sucks, but thereis nothing wrong with letting a nit be a nit. in fact, being on, Id appreciate if you guys just let us have the chips 🙂
even a nit can recognize that he just showed his 3b AA to your fold so he decides to do it again but this time with a weaker range hes capable of folding. I think its a classic pattern I spot weak tight players with live. So I go with ma read yo and 4b stuff.
but i hope you posted this hand because something crazy happens like he shows 74o or something. otherwise, its a std boring fold and thus an uninteresting and non-debatable hand.
Doubt he makes it 8k and folds with 22k behind just atrocious. The whole timing tell thing I don’t agree with. He may be deciding to 3bet call JJ or AK here instead of jsut cramming it. That could be his decision that he wants to pause and think about.
I really believe he has no idea how atrocious this would be. None.
I see what you guys are saying. Just trying to use any info available that other people overlook. In this case it prob does not apply.
July 3, 2010
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Doubt he makes it 8k and folds with 22k behind just atrocious. The whole timing tell thing I don’t agree with. He may be deciding to 3bet call JJ or AK here instead of jsut cramming it. That could be his decision that he wants to pause and think about.
I really believe he has no idea how atrocious this would be. None.
I was thinking JJ/QQ/AK and he’s debating jam or raise.
At any rate I think you can fold 99 here with his perceived range even though it sucks to get 3b and fold vs. the same dude twice in a row like that.
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