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July 12, 2013
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So this isn’t so much about the situation as the answer to how we can better at analyzing these situations
Me(SB) $13593
P136(BB) $15560
P197(UTG) $8670
P237(MP) $5090
P62(MP) $46486
P208(LP) $14350
P19(CO) $30071
P218(BTN) $5800
** I don’t know SB/BB but open was like 2x… Wasn’t a 3-4-5x open
Pre Flop: Me(SB) with [A
,J
]
P197(UTG) folds, P237(MP) folds, P62(MP) raises 1800, P208(LP) folds, P19(CO) calls 1800, P218(BTN) calls 1800, Me(SB) ???
Here are ranges we gave players:
MP: 55+,ATs+,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,ATo+,KJo+
CO: 77+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo
BTN: 88-22,ATs-A9s,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo,KJo+,QJo
So when we run a pure equity calc we get the following equities:
MP = 26% CO = 32% BTN = 21.5% Hero = 21%
So the question is… Assuming we gave perfect ranges and relevant stack sizes etc. How would you solve your true equity in this pot? How would you examine whther shoving or calling or folding is best? How do we detrmine our true equity? Because obv the equity calc assumes we are all in 4 way 1 billion times.
I understand we can plug in 1,000 different situations in CRev and get answers to different calling ranges… But how would anyone most simplistically solve this?
Thanks in advance guys!
January 20, 2014
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UPDATE: Blind levels 300/600/60. Plugged this into ICMizer and got that AJo was a fold. It said we were losing over 5bb on a shove.
July 12, 2013
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Shit just realized we missed pot too… Pot was 6300+ antes… And we are SB w 300 in then.
July 7, 2012
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The main 2 ranges you need to consider are the MP and CO, BTN is clearly a clueless fish and you are way ahead of his range (there is no hand he should be flat calling instead of shoving with his stack in that spot). the MP opener can be fairly wide here as he is the effect big stack (but he has 3x opened – was this his standard?). I think you will be flipping with most of the COs range.
Also, if you shove squeeze and the MP opener calls its most likely that CO folds and the BTN is close to irrelevant.
Given the amount of chip already in the middle squeeze shoving looks like a decent option as you will have ~30% against the openers calling range and at least 50% against the CO range. Flatting and trying to play this hand OOP is pretty ugly.
The maths in these spots is important – but I think you are getting too caught up in it in these situations. So I will simplify this one for you:-
1) do I have a decent hand with decent equity – Yes (and it has blocker value as well)
2) Are there a decent amount of chips in the middle – Yes (nearly 50% of your stack)
3) Do I have fold equity – Some
4) Is this a gamble spot I should consider taking to build my stack – absolutely
July 12, 2013
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Thanks Turbulence! Appreciate the input!
I wonder if this spot is semi-solvable though… Obv we would have to run different range calcs through CRev or PIOsolver or something… But I’m wondering what general way to approach calculating these equities are…?!? And I suppose I’ve answered my own question to some extent where I should go in and do that..
BUt thank you!
July 7, 2012
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lapp3r30 said
Thanks Turbulence! Appreciate the input!I wonder if this spot is semi-solvable though… Obv we would have to run different range calcs through CRev or PIOsolver or something… But I’m wondering what general way to approach calculating these equities are…?!? And I suppose I’ve answered my own question to some extent where I should go in and do that..
BUt thank you!
No bother. Bit of a rambling answer as I wrote it after a long session. It was on my mind again when I woke up so I have run the scenario through Holdem Resources calculator. I used a slightly modified 20% range for MP opener and a capped 16% range for the CO (capped him flatting monsters to 20% of the time – AA, KK, QQ, AKs).
Against the above you have a profitable shove at +0.98BB with AJo and you can profitably 3B shove 9.4% of hands (66+; AJo+; ATs+; KJs+). Interestingly it calculates that you can profitably flat as wide as 39.9% of hands, however this does not take into account post flop action, so its going to be much harder in reality to realise your equity.
Like I suspected, this is a long-term profitable spot to take but it is marginal (hence why I called it a gamble spot). To put in perspective, 3bet shoving 99 in this same spot is a +4.07BB play.
Hope that helps you with “resolving” the spot.
January 20, 2014
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Thank you for posting this Aaron, and thanks for the replies Sean. I ended up folding here, I thought that the Button could be limping monsters a lot here, because he only has 9.8BB. But I think you guys are right, this is just a call from a “Fun Player”, not a reg trying to get in against 5 players with a monster.
I went over this one on the 114 podcast “To Squeeze, or not to Squeeze.” When I see this again, you’ve convinced me of a shove. Thank you 
July 7, 2012
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No worries. Nice to get a shout out on your podcast, good work with those btw.
Dont forget i did say it was marginal and a bit of a gamble spot, no certianies with that particular hand. But you have a good range of hands in the same spot that are a much better shove. I think i would go with something like 88+; ATs+; KJs+; AJo+
I really dont mind the fold, especially if you think you have an edge on some of the remaining players. Just a spot that needs to be seriously considered.
October 12, 2016
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Hey,
When you guys take information about a hand from here for example and then plug into HCR, how do you choose the prize pool? Does it make any difference at all?
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I think you’re looking at this the wrong way, OP. Our current equity versus villains’ ranges doesn’t really matter a whole lot, and our ‘real equity’ (i.e. the portion of our raw equity we would expect to realize in a postflop situation) is virtually impossible to calculate given the nature of multi-way postflop spots – no calculator yet exists that can efficiently calculate Nash ranges for multiway situations.
It’s not really super useful to know your actual equity versus three other players in this spot – a vast majority of hands will be somewhere between 15% and 25%. Similarly, predicting your equity realization relies on specific reads on how each of the other players play – it’s safe to say that whatever your real equity is, it’s not going to be very good when you’re out of position.
At this stack size, two things are much more important than equity vs ranges – #1, how often do you flop a hand that has very good equity against any potential hands your opponents might have (i.e. top pair or better, OESD, FD), and #2, can we avoid taking a flop altogether by 3-betting or shoving.
Assuming you’re at the 400/800 blind level, shoving is your only reraising option, you can’t 3-bet small with this stack size. Since you also know that your equity versus the calling range of almost any villain in this spot is likely to be in the 25-30% region, it’s mostly a question of fold equity, not your actual all-in equity.
If you can make these players fold often enough, you can shove any two cards, just like any other spot. Turbulence above already ran the spot on HRC, for which I’m grateful – he or she has proven it’s probably a profitable shove.
One comment on Turbulence’s assertion that the shove here is ‘marginal’ based on the fact it makes +0.98bb in EV – that is not a marginal spot! +0.98bb in one hand is 98bb/100! I guarantee you that nobody ITT (or on the planet) has a winrate of 98bb/100 at stacks under 20bb – in fact, even very good players don’t usually have winrates any higher than about 8bb/100 maximum at that stack size. You can’t afford to be turning down spots that can make you almost 1bb of profit with only <20bb of risk. Nobody is that good.
Please, people, that old line about “waiting for a better spot”? Forget it. It’s the most dangerous phrase in poker.
January 20, 2014
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Thanks for the kind words Sean about the podcast. That’s a really good point Matt. I never thought of .98bb being worth 98bb per 100, but that’s exactly what it is.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Yes indeed. Expressing EV in bb/100 is a useful tactic, because it helps us keep sight of how much we win or lose in the long run with a specific play. It’s a lot easier to say “I don’t benefit that much from an extra 0.98bb in my stack right now”, but how much would you benefit from an extra 980bb per 1,000 hands, or 9,800bb per 10,000 hands? Taking a huge bunch of +0.98bb spots is how good winrates are built.
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