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JJ facing bet from maniac on QQ8 board
YMCQ
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March 31, 2019 - 10:45 am
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Live $1100 tournament. BB ante format 200/400 400 level

 

utg limps, utg2 raises to 2000. He’s a maniac, raised previous hand with 58 suited utg3

I’m next with JJ. I have 50 bb. I look around the table and see a guy with 20bb. He’s already looked at his hand and looks really interested. I flat, thinking he’ll shove, other guy will call and I’ll go all in.  Gets around to him and he thinks for ages and folds. 

 

Flop is QQ8. He bets 3000, I call.

Turn 2. He bets 5000. 

My thinking was he would probably slow down with AA or KK, as I could easily have a Q. He would bet AQ and AK, I think and he’s twice as likely to have AK. I shove my JJ and he has AQ.

 

Good or bad on my part?

canadian_kidxxx
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March 31, 2019 - 4:56 pm
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How much does UTG2 have in his stack?  How much did he open the 85s to?

If the 5x open was not his standard I would read it as strength and take a lot of the garbage out of his range.  

Do you have any postflop reads on the villain?  There are a lot of players out there that play pretty fast and loose preflop but tighten up quite a bit after the flop.  If villain is this type of player it would have a big impact on how I would play this hand.

I think your reasoning for flatting hoping the 20BB stack jams is sound but he could have just been excited to have a chance to 3bet a loose opener with a plan to fold if anyone else was in the hand.  If the villain’s range is as wide as you think here I like a smallish 3bet to get value while we are ahead.  This would also help make the pot larger and make it easier for us to get it in before the river on favourable runouts since JJ isn’t likely to go for three streets of value without significant improvement.

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April 1, 2019 - 6:41 am
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I think that calling pre-flop is good, for two reasons. first of all, the one you mentioned being: there is a guy with 20bb, who could potentially shove, so ‘ slow-playing’ JJ here is good for this reason. Secondly, you said UTG2 is a maniac, generally speaking you would want the maniac to ‘do his thing’, which generally is to bet and punt it off. 

On the flop, it is a standard call, QQ8 is a safe board, with two queens out there, there aren’t many queens left in his range and a maniac will always c-bet here. On the turn however, I think you should start to proceed with a lot of caution. The board is QQ82 and he shows strength in his betting. 

Even maniac’s have ranges so let’s take a look, he double bet and is increasing his sizing so strength. AA/KK/QQ/1010/99/88/77, AQ/KQ/QJ/Q10, J10 (bluffing with gutshot straight is possible), you didn’t mention flush draws so let’s assume it was a rainbow, if not: all flushdraws could be double barrel bluffs. but against all these hands, AA-QQ you’re basically dead, 88’s have FH, all queens you’re practically dead, so we’re only doing well against J10 (which we block) or double barrel flush draw bluffs.

Personally, I think shoving is the worst option possible, simply for the fact, that we are NEVER getting called by worse and allowing him to fold his bluffs. Personally it comes down to this: you ‘can’ call, but you are in for a massive bet on the river, so if a blank comes, are you going to call again? unlikely… but there are two options letting it go on the turn and wait for a better spot, or call turn and hero call the river as well(which is extremely marginal, or downright punting) 

Foucault

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April 1, 2019 - 7:58 am
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SnoringPanda said

Personally, I think shoving is the worst option possible, simply for the fact, that we are NEVER getting called by worse and allowing him to fold his bluffs. Personally it comes down to this: you ‘can’ call, but you are in for a massive bet on the river, so if a blank comes, are you going to call again? unlikely… but there are two options letting it go on the turn and wait for a better spot, or call turn and hero call the river as well(which is extremely marginal, or downright punting)   

Not saying that I do or don’t think it’s best, but why are you taking call turn and fold river off the table? I mean, I see that you are assuming he will make a “massive bet” on the river, but what’s the basis for that?

Foucault

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April 1, 2019 - 8:01 am
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YMCQ said
Live $1100 tournament. BB ante format 200/400 400 level

 

utg limps, utg2 raises to 2000. He’s a maniac, raised previous hand with 58 suited utg3

I’m next with JJ. I have 50 bb. I look around the table and see a guy with 20bb. He’s already looked at his hand and looks really interested. I flat, thinking he’ll shove, other guy will call and I’ll go all in.  Gets around to him and he thinks for ages and folds. 

 

Flop is QQ8. He bets 3000, I call.

Turn 2. He bets 5000. 

My thinking was he would probably slow down with AA or KK, as I could easily have a Q. He would bet AQ and AK, I think and he’s twice as likely to have AK. I shove my JJ and he has AQ.

 

Good or bad on my part?  

The stack to pot ratio on the turn is something like 1.5. Just because you could have a Q doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be ready to stack off with KK/AA (since, as we can see here, you’ll get it in with worse.) Of course that doesn’t prove that he will, but if your argument is simply that he won’t because you might have a Q, I don’t think that holds water. I mean, couldn’t the same argument apply to betting AK? He won’t because you might have a Q?

SnoringPanda
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April 1, 2019 - 11:31 am
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Foucault said

Not saying that I do or don’t think it’s best, but why are you taking call turn and fold river off the table? I mean, I see that you are assuming he will make a “massive bet” on the river, but what’s the basis for that?  

Well you are right, I should have left this more ‘on the table’ rather than assuming it outright. 

I guess that the reason I assume that is because most people tend to take a step back on the turn and check, even with their bluffs, as an 2 coming on the turn is literally the worst bluffing card in the deck for him. So if he decides to bet on that turn, I personally think that most of the time he will eventually empty the clip on the river, what do you think ?

3for3
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April 2, 2019 - 11:46 am
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Yes, most of the time Villain will bet.  But you get 2 more pieces of information if you wait until the river. One is the card.  If it is an ace or king, you’d feel much more comfortable folding.  If it is a Jack, you will of course call/raise.   So, somewhere around 10-15% of the time that will help you.  Of the remaining 85% of the time, some of it Villain will check.  

Use your position…it’s worth much more than any gains you can make here shoving the turn.

YMCQ
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April 8, 2019 - 1:12 pm
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Thank you for all the thoughtful responses. I thought I needed to shove or fold with my stack on the turn, but you have collectively convinced me otherwise. Again, thanks for not ripping me to shreds. My first post after being a member for 5 years!

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