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KK on double paired board in The Big $55
iball83
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July 3, 2013 - 9:53 am
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Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t25/t50 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2251391
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Sifosis (CO): t3270 65.40 BBs
RLOG (BTN): t2851 57.02 BBs
nemoswims (SB): t6082 121.64 BBs
papillon 999 (BB): t2670 53.40 BBs
chips1234 (UTG): t2530 50.60 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t3588 71.76 BBs
$$$ROBS$$988 (UTG+2): t3000 60 BBs
goatee66 (MP1): t2755 55.10 BBs
ReDBullNe1 (MP2): t6324 126.48 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+1 with K of clubs K of spades
1 fold, Hero raises to t125, 1 fold, goatee66 calls t125, 3 folds, nemoswims calls t100, 1 fold

Flop: (t425) 6 of clubs 7 of clubs 6 of diamonds (3 players)
nemoswims checks, Hero bets t280, goatee66 calls t280, nemoswims folds

Turn: (t985) Q of hearts (2 players)
Hero bets t550, goatee66 calls t550

River: (t2085) Q of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, goatee66 bets t1800 all in

 

No real read on the vilian, haven't seen him show down a hand. He's 20/13 over 40 hands and I'm 20/15 but have been fairly active in the last few orbits. My open size has been the same 2.5x everytime. I guess the simple question is do we call the river shove? Also is there any value in making a small blocker bet on the river rather than checking?

 

My thinking was that there are plenty of Q's in his range particularly if he has the Q of clubs. From his point of view I don't think I can ever have a Q as played so he might even shove a 6 for vaule. It seems like the only thing we beat is a busted draw, but he would probably have raised these on the flop. Is it ever a thin value bet with a 7?

packallama
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July 3, 2013 - 4:51 pm
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I think this is a snapcall because he has so many missed draws in his range that need to bluff the river. I wouldn't expect him to raise them on the flop because you have a more overpair heavy range and he can credibly rep 88-JJ and 7x on the turn by calling the flop and betting the turn when checked to. 

I don't know why you would think he has a lot of Qx in his range and I don't see him having too many 6x either. He probably doesn't have too many pure floats because of position and the SB. Also, Qx is unlikely in his floating range because it doesn't have any backdoor straightdraws. 6x is unlikely because of how early position both of you are.

There is even merit in betting this river to get value from 88-JJ and 7x. We can have several missed draws by the river. It's probably player dependent on whether betting or checking the river is best. By checking we likely miss value from almost everything worse, but we can bluffcatch vs his missed draws. If you estimate his range on getting to the river and frequencies for betting worse for value and bluffing, you could calculate which is higher EV. It would require a lot of assumptions about the average player because we have such a small hand sample. 

As played, I like shoving this river for value because it is one of the strongest hands we can have in our range other than turned 66, 77, and turned Qx. Like I said before, we will have a lot of missed draws so adding in thinner value hands like AA, KK, and JJ will help balance our river betting range. I would also bet a bit bigger on the turn in order to bet around the same % of the pot by shoving the river. 

iball83
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July 4, 2013 - 5:56 am
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I do agree a bigger bet on the turn would be better. I was planning to put him all-in on the any river that wasn't a ace or club but then when the Q hit I thought that was a really bad card too. I think a bigger turn bet makes it a lot easier to shove the river and get called by worse, JJ, 10s ect.

 

I do still think there are quite a few Q's in his range, I think QJ, KQ and AQ are all possible floats particularly if suited in clubs. There are less 6s, only really 67 and A6s at a strench. If its a flush draw it's normally going to be ace high (most of the others have a Q in them) and then he would probably check back the river wouldn't he? His hand has more show down vaule.

packallama
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July 4, 2013 - 3:46 pm
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Given the position you opened from and your double barrel, ace high has very little showdown value. How much air you end up with on the river heavily depends on how wide you open from UTG+1 pre-ante and how frequently double barrel the Q turn. If you don't have hands like 89s-T9s and non-nut broadway clubs in your opening range and don't barrel turn without at least a draw then you are going to end up with very little air on the river. Thus his AcXc has very little showdown value. With that said, it would be hard for him to expect to fold out better with a shove.

Whether he bluffs river with AcXc depends on what lvl thinker he is. A lvl 1 thinker might think Ace high has a lot of showdown value, a lvl 2 thinker might realize it doesn't vs a tight opening range and bluff, and a lvl 3 thinker would know it doesn't have much showdown value, but not expect you to fold better by shoving. 

It's not a float when he calls flop with clubs. It's considered floating when you call with little or no equity. Such as backdoor draws or a weak gutter. 

He can have QcXc, but there are only so many combos of that. Three combos: AcQc, KcQc, QcJc and maybe QcTc if he is looser. There are plenty more combos of worse pairs: 6 combos of JJ-88 each. He ends up on the river with 7 combos of better hands and has 24 combos of reasonable calling hands. Sounds like an easy VB to me. 

redvulture61
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July 4, 2013 - 5:41 pm
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Pretty easy fold in my opinion. The Big55 is such a soft tourney that there will be so many better spots why risk it all on a call that is mostly likely negative EV. Your opponent can take this line with KQ,JQ,Q10,Q9,AQ,77,66,67,68,57 just to name a few. You would be surprised how wide some people call flop bets. Given the fact that the pot is also multiway it would be suicidal for your opponent to bluff here given the fact most players wont fold an overpair in big55. 

p1kZoR
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July 5, 2013 - 12:51 am
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Im not sure whats the best line here. Imo its like 40-50% ur Kings are good here. He just called your bets IP, so he could have the missed Flush draw, he could even have a missed openender. I played this “TheBig”-Tourneys on Stars alot and Ive seen many many ppl calling preflop very light in the early stages.

But by saying that… on the other hand, i think he easily could have some 56s, 67s, A6s, AQ, etc. etc.

 

I hate it to call on river, but after the pot being that big, I think its the best here. If u catch a bluff in like 30% of the time, i think a call would be correct

redvulture61
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July 5, 2013 - 8:09 am
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He has only invested about 800 of 3500 of his stack here he is far from pot commited.

MadBaltic
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July 6, 2013 - 3:11 am
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Fold river and well played hand.

bennymacca
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July 6, 2013 - 8:06 am
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i think if you are checking you are doing so to induce bluffs, so i think you have to call. if you only put a few combos of flush draws in his range then i think you have to call. 

 

having said that, i might even shove and hope to get a hero call from a lower pair, becasue i think he might hero call with 99/jj sometimes here, after talking themselves into a call 

redvulture61
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July 6, 2013 - 7:01 pm
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SPEW. No player is never going to call with worse if you shove here.  You only beat a bluff he ethier has a full house or he doesent.

bennymacca
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July 6, 2013 - 10:56 pm
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honestly dont agree. in your previous post you said there was a ton of QT/Q9 etc, but these hands firstly dont flat preflop that often to an UTG raise, and they dont peel here unless they have two clubs on the flop, given there are still people behind left to act. 

i think villains range is weighted a whole lot towards pocket pairs. really strong flush draws like AJcc or something like that are probably going to raise flop to thin the field down a bit, and given villain is flatting an UTG1 raiser, i dont see many 6s in their range except for maybe 56s and 67s. 

 

i think the calling range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs here. i think a pretty decent range for villain is broadway club hands that arent the nut flush draw, and 99-JJ. 

FkCoolers
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July 7, 2013 - 11:11 am
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If we're checking river, it should never be to fold. We'll get shoved on by good player's to fold out a chop and hopefully fold out pairs between 6's and Q's. 

We check/call to bluff catch or else we should be bet/folding or bet/calling depending on the read we have. 

suk12
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July 7, 2013 - 11:28 am
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I think folding on the river is out of option. Your hand here is the best a lot of time, specially against random oponnent in this large field with so many bad players. I think that check/call is best option here. I see only two hands that you cant beat – 77 and AcQc. KcQc not possible since you have Kc. I think he is bluffing even pairs like 22 to 55.

packallama
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July 7, 2013 - 1:25 pm
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I doubt villain calls turn with 55-. I didn't notice that we have the Kc so that cuts out one combo of better hands. Do you guys think it's more profitable to VB or bluffcatch river?

FkCoolers
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July 7, 2013 - 3:04 pm
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I think it's more profitable to value bet here because I feel like not enough people will bet A high to try to fold out chops and I also don't think enough people will bet for thin value with middling pairs here, but those same people will happily call bets from their opponents… lol. 

Poker. 

packallama
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July 7, 2013 - 5:58 pm
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Well it would be pretty much suicide for him to bet much worse than KK for value (maybe JJ?). The whole point of checking is to induce bluffs from missed draws.

p1kZoR
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July 7, 2013 - 7:44 pm
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Imo bluffcatching has much more value. Like FkCoolers said, every good player gonna shove the river, if u check it. Longterm i think ull get more value out of it.

“He has only invested about 800 of 3500 of his stack here he is far from pot commited.”

True, but his villain only has 2700, so thats his effective stacksize.
And there are still same odds. I didnt say he is already pot commited, i just told, that its pretty much gambling. And im not sure, if im right… But if he catch a bluff in 30% of all times, it would be worth to call. And Im pretty sure, if u Check this right OOP, more than 30% of all players gonna bluff shove the river in this tourney

packallama
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July 7, 2013 - 10:10 pm
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It doesn't have to do with what % of players are going to bluff shove, but how many combos of air villain ends up with on the river to bluff shove.

iball83
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July 8, 2013 - 7:29 am
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Interesting discussion, thanks for the input everyone. It seems like the consensus is it's a pretty clear call and I can now see why. I thought it was prety close at the time but I folded so I'm affraid I can't let you know what villan was actually holding.

 

Would it make a difference if this was in the Big $11 instead of the $55 assuming we are readless? I mostly play low stakes but try and mix in some mid stakes too.

p1kZoR
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July 8, 2013 - 2:05 pm
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in the big11 its easier to call on river imo, many players doesnt play any board structure or the villain etc… In the big11 its more often this way: “oh he checks the river, that means he gave up and i can bluff” Its not a huge difference, but its a bit easier to call in the Big11 for me, than in the Big55 where more players are in higher thinking level (not because its more expensive.. players just )

p1kZoR
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July 8, 2013 - 2:15 pm
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Not wanna discuss this hand, just want to show you an example of a Big11 hand. I was an activ BigStack here, and i shove twice (after 1 open + caller) hands in row just before this hand came. So they tried to fight back hard.

And that happens alot in the Big11, if you have an Avrg stack or a BigStack, and show a bit of weakness somewhere on a dangerous board (here I checked the Turn), they start to attack you.

 

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t125/t250 Blinds + t30 – 9 players – View hand 2254851
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Andúril (UTG+1): BB = 13.2, t3308
laback81 (UTG+2): BB = 13.4, t3341
ramp3:16 (MP1): BB = 30.6, t7648
vvvikki (MP2): BB = 53.8, t13456
chilio999 (CO): BB = 29.3, t7333
Hero (BTN): BB = 49.2, t12293
Hotstove420 (SB): BB = 10.2, t2550
SHUNK (BB): BB = 39.0, t9742
josty2284 (UTG): BB = 10.6, t2643

Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is BTN with A of spades A of diamonds
4 folds, vvvikki calls t250, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1025, 1 fold, SHUNK calls t775, vvvikki calls t775

Flop: (t3470) 9 of spades K of clubs 7 of diamonds (3 players)
SHUNK checks, vvvikki checks, Hero bets t2354, SHUNK folds, vvvikki calls t2354

Turn: (t8178) J of hearts (2 players)
vvvikki checks, Hero checks

River: (t8178) K of hearts (2 players)
vvvikki bets t8884, Hero calls t8884 all in

Final Pot: t25946
vvvikki shows 3 of spades Q of spades (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows A of spades A of diamonds (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Hero wins t25946

 

Im sure not everyone gonna like this river call, but its just my expirience, that im very often still good with Aces on river. Sometimes they have the King, if so ..sigh&gg. For me it still stay profitable to call it

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