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Marginal Hand OOP: questionable Valuebet Turn, strange Riverbet... totally lost
sw179
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June 20, 2017 - 6:37 pm
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Hi there, I am new to TPE and tournamentpoker overall. I will introduce me in the next days. My english is not great so I hope you’ll understand my question :o)

The hand was played in the Pokerstars Big 11. 

I am not sure about my play here. 

A9 is the weakest offsuit that I open from MP1. 

 

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 61.14 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 14.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 96)
BB: 30.08 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: 19.42 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 18.94 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 8)
MP: 8.5 BB (VPIP: 8.16, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 98)
Hero (MP+1): 20.93 BB
MP+2: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 35)
CO: 109.94 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 85)
BTN: 45.61 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.10, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 99)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Aspade 9diamond

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, MP+2 calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.7 BB, 2 players) 9club 3diamond Kspade
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

Turn: (6.7 BB, 2 players) 6spade
Hero bets 4 BB, MP+2 calls 4 BB

River: (14.7 BB, 2 players) 6club
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 7.35 BB, Hero ???

On the Flop I checked and hoped for a check back. I don’t want to play a big pot and I have no Idea of his range. When he checks back, I felt not to bad about my hand. I would expect him to bet any King on the flop. I don’t think he would check his sets back very often.  

I think he would bet his QT, JT-type when he has them in his range. 

So I pretty much have him on a PP or a Weaker 9. 

When he calls the turn I think he might found a flushdraw along with a nine. I pretty much think I have the best Hand here. I checked expect him to check back. Then he finds a bet. 

A few thoughts an that:
I planned on calling a flop-Bet and fold to a Turnbet. Do you think it would be better to bet the flop? Whats the plan on the turn then?

What do I do when I get raised on the turn? When I fold to a raise here, was it a bad Idea to bet in the first place? I mean how often will he check back his monsters here? 66 ok, but that’s it. 

When he bets the river and I call it hurts my stack pretty bad. But I can’t see many Handy he would bet here. Except A6 maybe. 

What is he betting for Value here? My hands looks exactly what it is = weak. Maybe a 9, or even TT-QQ. 

Seems like I got myself here in a difficult spot. What are your thoughts? As the hand was played: do you fold here?

Thanks in advance
Stefan

almofadinhas
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June 21, 2017 - 1:23 pm
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With 21bb I am not opening A9 from MP, LP probably, I dont like to play post flop with it, there is not much space for maneuver.

As played I would bet ~1/3 of the pot otf, there is only one overcard on the board, but your pair is vunerable. If called I think vilain is capable of having Kx and broadway floats, so I am check calling one small bet, turn or river, unless I improve.

The 6 ott puts some str8 draws there, improving hands like 45, 89, 8T that V will call a bet with since you didn´t bet flop.

With no read at all on V, I guess I am check crying/calling his river bet, not sure actually, I am not sure V will bluff his busted str8 draws, I think there is Kx on V´s range that V is value betting too, 6x…

sw179
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June 21, 2017 - 7:15 pm
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Thanks for your thoughts :o)

I think I like your line to bet the flop small.

Maybe I think when I bet the Flop, check the turn and face a bet I really don’t know what to do. When I check/call the flop and he bets the turn I would fold, pretty sure I’m beat here. 

When he bets flop, checks turn and bets the river it’s still not great but I think, depending on betsize I would fold there.

Foucault

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June 22, 2017 - 11:29 am
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I like your line, and I would be happy enough to call river. What would your check-calling range be, if not this?

sw179
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June 22, 2017 - 5:36 pm
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Hi Andrew, thanks for your reply. 

I called the riverbet. About my check calling range you are right. I was really surprised about his bet here. So I was pretty confused :o) I expected a check here nearly a 100%. 

If he decides to raise the turn, do you think we should call? I think this would be a pretty strange raise. On the other hand it seems pretty weak to bet for value and then fold to a strange raise like this. Or is this just the type unexpected action you talk in your handreading series? So do we fold here, thinking he checked back a monster or he has exactly 66?

I think I would lean towards calling, but I am really not sure whats the best play here. Without a read on the player I think calling is the right play here. What do you think?

theginger45

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July 10, 2017 - 10:51 pm
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I also think the hand is pretty good throughout. One caveat is you’re putting villain on a pretty specific range at some points in your explanation – almost veering into trying to ‘put them on a hand’.

There are some questions you’re asking where it might be more useful to try to work out an answer yourself – for example, you mentioned getting raised on the turn. Well, the answer to your question about that lies in figuring out what villain’s range would be if they raised the turn. What hands would they realistically do it with? Based on your read about that range, what should you do?

Realistically I don’t think villain has much, if any, raising range here. And that’s a perfectly valid conclusion. Sometimes your mental energy is better spent thinking about more ambiguous spots, like the river – in this instance, I think your instinct that it’s pretty tough for villain to have too many stronger hands is pretty accurate. TT/JJ most likely 3-bet preflop, and Kx most likely bets the flop. You do block the As, but villain can have some other combos of spades and QJ/JT/QT, so I think it’s a call.

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