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Read based fold: is it still too weak?
jjpregler
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February 12, 2017 - 10:19 am
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Harrah’s Daily MTT

Villain – moved here about 20 hands ago.  Was passive and slightly loose.  About an orbit ago, a wild player shoved for 15 BBs and she tanked and agonized over a call, with KK.  Saying she didn’t want to risk that much of her stack when she knew he had an A.  

Hand QQ; Position EP; Stacks: @25bbs (middle stages approaching the bubble; 35 left 18 paid)

I open to 2.2x, she calls from the button, and BB calls.

Flop A, 9, 5r.  BB checks, I check she bets pot, BB folds, hero?

I did not see anything off in my watching her on the flop, but after her bet she seemed pretty comfortable. I folded.  

Was I still supposed to peel here and evaluate her on the turn?  

almofadinhas
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February 13, 2017 - 9:41 am
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I think is a fold to a bet pot, you will put too much of your stack on this call, maybe call a 50% pot size bet.

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February 13, 2017 - 9:50 am
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Easy fold, IMO. I think it would help you to get clear on what you mean by “too weak”. Poker isn’t a game about being strong, it’s about making money. How would calling make you money (or folding cost you money)? You may want to check out my Getting Off on the Right Foot series.

theginger45

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February 13, 2017 - 11:52 am
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I agree with Andrew, comfortable fold. I think the more interesting question is, what do you do here if you have, say, A2s? You block the Ax hands, but you don’t block all of them.

I guess what I’m asking is, even thought QQ is an obvious fold, what range are you actually putting her on? Would she do this with any Ace, or just a strong one? Does she have any bluffs at all? All these are good questions to ask – only analyzing the exact hand you happened to have is actually a form of results-orientation.

jjpregler
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February 13, 2017 - 11:54 am
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I guess a better way to question would be to ask whether I was giving up on this pot too easily.  In the game my intuition was saying fold, but my logical side was saying call because she could be betting a Jx or just making a positional move.  In the end I did fold because I reasoned that if she was making a move with this bet, just let her have it and I would be playing guessing games on the turn and river OOP.  

Also, by “too weak” I was wondering if anyone would still advocate a c-bet in this pot.  I don’t mean weak/strong in the appearances but in the way I played the hand.  Was I being too much of a pushover in this spot.  Should I have fought harder to win this pot post flop or was check/fold appropriate for the situation?  Which option has the greatest cEV?  1) C-bet/pot control if called or fold if raised, 2) check/fold, or 3) check/call

theginger45

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February 13, 2017 - 12:10 pm
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jjpregler said
I guess a better way to question would be to ask whether I was giving up on this pot too easily.  In the game my intuition was saying fold, but my logical side was saying call because she could be betting a Jx or just making a positional move.  In the end I did fold because I reasoned that if she was making a move with this bet, just let her have it and I would be playing guessing games on the turn and river OOP.  

Also, by “too weak” I was wondering if anyone would still advocate a c-bet in this pot.  I don’t mean weak/strong in the appearances but in the way I played the hand.  Was I being too much of a pushover in this spot.  Should I have fought harder to win this pot post flop or was check/fold appropriate for the situation?  Which option has the greatest cEV?  1) C-bet/pot control if called or fold if raised, 2) check/fold, or 3) check/call  

A few questions and points based on your phrasing here:

1. How easily is ‘too easily’? This question has no answer with the phrasing you’ve chosen.

2. She could be ‘making a move’, but if she is, she still has to have two cards in her hand. What range of hands could she be making this move with?

3. How much of a pushover is ‘too much of a pushover’? Can you define this mathematically?

4. How hard should you have fought to win the pot? Is there a number you can put on it?

5. Your question about cEV is the only useful question on this list. It’s the only metric you can actually use to make a decision. Check-folding has a cEV of zero in every spot, so you just need to evaluate betting and check-calling. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each one?

A lot of your language in these posts suggests you believe you should be ‘fighting’ for each pot. This is only going to get you into bad spots. Poker isn’t a ‘fight’ where the person who wants it more gets to win the pot. Sometimes you’re not going to win the pot no matter how hard you try – you simply can’t possibly hope to have that much control. Learning to recognize an unfavorable spot and move on from it is an important skill. This is a good example of a spot where that skill would be useful.

jjpregler
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February 13, 2017 - 12:24 pm
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theginger45 said
I agree with Andrew, comfortable fold. I think the more interesting question is, what do you do here if you have, say, A2s? You block the Ax hands, but you don’t block all of them.

I guess what I’m asking is, even thought QQ is an obvious fold, what range are you actually putting her on? Would she do this with any Ace, or just a strong one? Does she have any bluffs at all? All these are good questions to ask – only analyzing the exact hand you happened to have is actually a form of results-orientation.  

When I analyze her range, I expected her to play her marginal hands passive.  There are no real draws on this flop, so if she is making a move she is making a naked bluff with an airball.  She would have the middle and bottom set in her range and probably the Ax two pair combos.  But with check/check, it’s hard to say she wouldn’t bet her Jx hands either.  I did not have enough of a read to determine any possible sizing tells.  Like 1/2 pot with Jx and pot with top pair +.  

When I checked to her, I was planning to check/call (unless she bet and the BB called)  But her sizing set off alarms.  

However, most of the Ax hands I have here are AJ+.  I opened from EP and with these stacks, and the player in the BB, I would typically fold the weaker aces.  The BB was one of the best players at the table, playing solid aggressive poker.   

So I guess, with Ax hands that hit here, I would c-bet most of the time, which if she raises, is much stronger than her betting after a check/check action before her.  

theginger45

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February 13, 2017 - 12:49 pm
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jjpregler said

When I analyze her range, I expected her to play her marginal hands passive.  There are no real draws on this flop, so if she is making a move she is making a naked bluff with an airball.  She would have the middle and bottom set in her range and probably the Ax two pair combos.  But with check/check, it’s hard to say she wouldn’t bet her Jx hands either.  I did not have enough of a read to determine any possible sizing tells.  Like 1/2 pot with Jx and pot with top pair +.  

When I checked to her, I was planning to check/call (unless she bet and the BB called)  But her sizing set off alarms.  

However, most of the Ax hands I have here are AJ+.  I opened from EP and with these stacks, and the player in the BB, I would typically fold the weaker aces.  The BB was one of the best players at the table, playing solid aggressive poker.   

So I guess, with Ax hands that hit here, I would c-bet most of the time, which if she raises, is much stronger than her betting after a check/check action before her.    

Now that’s a much better explanation. 🙂 Good job.

I’m guessing you mis-typed the flop then – you mention Jx hands but I thought the flop was A-9-5.

jjpregler
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February 13, 2017 - 1:36 pm
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No, I mistyped my answer.  I am analyzing 2 hands currently and the flop on the other hand was JXX and crossed the two in my answer.   

jjpregler
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February 13, 2017 - 1:48 pm
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theginger45 said

A few questions and points based on your phrasing here:

1. How easily is ‘too easily’? This question has no answer with the phrasing you’ve chosen.

2. She could be ‘making a move’, but if she is, she still has to have two cards in her hand. What range of hands could she be making this move with?

3. How much of a pushover is ‘too much of a pushover’? Can you define this mathematically?

4. How hard should you have fought to win the pot? Is there a number you can put on it?

5. Your question about cEV is the only useful question on this list. It’s the only metric you can actually use to make a decision. Check-folding has a cEV of zero in every spot, so you just need to evaluate betting and check-calling. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each one?

A lot of your language in these posts suggests you believe you should be ‘fighting’ for each pot. This is only going to get you into bad spots. Poker isn’t a ‘fight’ where the person who wants it more gets to win the pot. Sometimes you’re not going to win the pot no matter how hard you try – you simply can’t possibly hope to have that much control. Learning to recognize an unfavorable spot and move on from it is an important skill. This is a good example of a spot where that skill would be useful.  

I am obviously using poor wording and not making myself as clear as I need to.  It is hard to convey everything in a short post.  Let me try again. I fully agree that cEV is the only metric to measure a play.  

A weakness I found in my game that I am trying to correct is my turn and river play.  I see videos and lessons of pros creating equity in post flop spots that I am not.  Therefore, I am leaving equity on the table.  I look at a spot and where the pro creates equity, I found I would not even make it to that spot because I would have folded earlier or if I made it there, I would have played passive.  I am too nitty in post flop decisions and I can increase my expectation by learning to identify these spots where I am playing too tight/conservative and then learn the appropriate response in those spots.  

Whatever that difference between a pro and my game is the term I was trying to convey.  Weakness, passivity, whatever that something that a pro has that I don’t is the word I was trying to convey with the terms “weak” or “too easily.”  Whatever that difference that allows them to create more equity than I do. Whatever they have that I don’t in those situations is the term I am trying to convey.  

Ok, so question 1: Was this a spot where I was too tight and folded when there was equity to be had by making another choice? (By your responses, I can see that you both seem to agree with my fold, so this part is already answered.)

Question 2:  When I analyze my entire range on the flop and QQ being near the top of my check range, do I have to consider not folding to defend my checking range?   Or is that not as relevant in this situation?  And if it is not relevant, why?  

theginger45

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March 11, 2017 - 5:25 pm
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jjpregler said

theginger45 said

A few questions and points based on your phrasing here:

1. How easily is ‘too easily’? This question has no answer with the phrasing you’ve chosen.

2. She could be ‘making a move’, but if she is, she still has to have two cards in her hand. What range of hands could she be making this move with?

3. How much of a pushover is ‘too much of a pushover’? Can you define this mathematically?

4. How hard should you have fought to win the pot? Is there a number you can put on it?

5. Your question about cEV is the only useful question on this list. It’s the only metric you can actually use to make a decision. Check-folding has a cEV of zero in every spot, so you just need to evaluate betting and check-calling. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each one?

A lot of your language in these posts suggests you believe you should be ‘fighting’ for each pot. This is only going to get you into bad spots. Poker isn’t a ‘fight’ where the person who wants it more gets to win the pot. Sometimes you’re not going to win the pot no matter how hard you try – you simply can’t possibly hope to have that much control. Learning to recognize an unfavorable spot and move on from it is an important skill. This is a good example of a spot where that skill would be useful.  

I am obviously using poor wording and not making myself as clear as I need to.  It is hard to convey everything in a short post.  Let me try again. I fully agree that cEV is the only metric to measure a play.  

A weakness I found in my game that I am trying to correct is my turn and river play.  I see videos and lessons of pros creating equity in post flop spots that I am not. There’s no such thing as ‘creating equity’. You can take advantage of fold equity or realize your raw equity, but you can’t create equity. Equity doesn’t mean EV or profit. Therefore, I am leaving equity on the table.  I look at a spot and where the pro creates equity, I found I would not even make it to that spot because I would have folded earlier or if I made it there, I would have played passive.  I am too nitty in post flop decisions and I can increase my expectation by learning to identify these spots where I am playing too tight/conservative and then learn the appropriate response in those spots.  This is absolutely true. It’s hard to play super tight and make money.

Whatever that difference between a pro and my game is the term I was trying to convey. Don’t focus on ‘pros’. Plenty of ‘pros’ aren’t very good, and plenty of non-pros are very good. Focus on EV, not trying to play like someone else. Weakness, passivity, whatever that something that a pro has that I don’t is the word I was trying to convey with the terms “weak” or “too easily.”  Whatever that difference that allows them to create more equity than I do. Whatever they have that I don’t in those situations is the term I am trying to convey. There’s nothing that they have that you don’t. They’ve just done the work to calculate the EV of a spot away from the table, and used that work to improve their instincts in-game. You can do this yourself – there’s no secret. 

Ok, so question 1: Was this a spot where I was too tight Again, how tight is too tight? There’s no ‘correct’ amount of tightness. There’s only EV. If it’s a negative EV play, you can fold the 2nd nuts. and folded when there was equity Again, don’t confuse EV with equity. to be had by making another choice? (By your responses, I can see that you both seem to agree with my fold, so this part is already answered.)

Question 2:  When I analyze my entire range on the flop and QQ being near the top of my check range, do I have to consider not folding to defend my checking range?   Or is that not as relevant in this situation?  And if it is not relevant, why?  Defending your range is more relevant when readless or playing against good players. Doesn’t seem like either of those apply to this spot, so making exploitative plays based on your reads on villain seems better.

Hope some of the bolded helps!

 

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