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June 11, 2012
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following hand is bit later in the tournament.
BB is brazilain running 23/19 with 9.4% 3bet and is generally very active by 3betting especially vs steals and more vs hero than others. dont ask me why as we had no history.
few things:
1.) are you 4betting pre?
i think flatting is superior as it keeps his range wide and keeps in a lot of dominated hands. Further he seems to be the player willing to put in a 5bet light here vs these positions which would basically mean to stick in 126BB effective in a 6bet which seems to me to much of varinace play.
2.) Flop play:
i flop the nut non pair hand with backdoor FD and backdoor SD
if i assign a 3betting range of AA-JJ,55-22,AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,A5s-A2s,KJs-K8s,QTs-Q8s,J9s-J7s,T8s-T7s,97s-96s,87s-86s,76s,65s 14%
as he Cbets 100% of 3bet pots i think a float here is appropriate. even vs all his made hands and good draws we only have 29% equity and need only 24% to make a BE call
3.)Turn play:
the A is a very good barreling card for him. Heros perceived range should include lots of pairs which we peal on the flop. also lots of Qx such as KQ, QJ,QT we call on the flop villain could bluff of here.
as my hand is ratter disguised i think a call here is appropriate.
planing for the river: villain increases his bet size significantly and bets almost 2/3 pot on the turn. In game i did not realize directly that this sets it up for a perfect river shove and we should make our decision here if we go with the hand or not.
do you fold, call or shove?
4.) River play:
after you called turned are you flding the river if our hand is so disguised? we need 33% of equity to call. does he barrel all his top pair hands? if so then we have 40% on our call and should call here
looking forward to hear your opinion
Poker Stars $1000+$50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t40/t80 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2224006
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
ender555 (UTG+2): t16059 200.74 BBs
Romzess II (MP1): t16822 210.28 BBs
MustSnaaaaap (MP2): t19786 247.32 BBs
Hero (CO): t10056 125.70 BBs
Dimadu (BTN): t2609 32.61 BBs
NAKAMATOR (SB): t17321 216.51 BBs
Pappe_Ruk (BB): t13095 163.69 BBs
demetri1978 (UTG): t22211 277.64 BBs
Bank of H. (UTG+1): t16341 204.26 BBs
Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is CO with A
K
5 folds, Hero raises to t240, 1 fold, NAKAMATOR raises to t688, 1 fold, Hero calls t448
Flop: (t1456) 8
Q
5 (2 players)
NAKAMATOR bets t678, Hero calls t678
Turn: (t2812) A
(2 players)
NAKAMATOR bets t1978, Hero calls t1978
River: (t6768) 4 (2 players)
NAKAMATOR bets t13977 all in forianm1 ???
Final Pot: t6768
July 3, 2010
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Based on all info you provided I am calling, I think. Although I don't think it's a super excited snap call.
We're near the very top of our value range and underrepped.
July 6, 2012
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VERY tough spot….but i find this overshove this early….more value hands…than bluffs, most of the time.
hate that my reason for folding is “to preserve out stack, and find a better spot”, but that's what it come down to.
why play the guessing game, for this many chips?, especially in a $1k, with a fairly good structure.
February 3, 2013
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I think even if this player is very active, he would not 3barrel & shove on river with worse hands, than AK.
I would put him on AQ or a set. I think with worse Aces he definitely pick up showdown value on Turn and would slow it down.
Like kingten102 said, its a high buyin mtt and good structure. It would be insane, if he bluffs in early/mid stage with such a dry board. I think ur game was good, but if he shoves the river, i probably would lay it down
I think MAYBE its too much variance there to push preflop with AK, but since this guy was 3betting and 5betting alot, i would think about a 6bet shove with AKs. With such a strong preflop hand i would be happy to stick it in preflop vs aggr loose player. AK is hard to play postflop vs such a maniac, since its hard to flop the nuts with AK.
Since Q popped up on flop and A on turn, i would be scared of AQ or QQ, because he sets it up for river shove, and isnt even scared the Ace on turn.
Im not a high buyin player, but it might be better to fold on river or 6bet shove him preflop, even its a 120BB stack (just because of his image..) I would not 6bet shove AK if i would be deep with 120BBs, but it seems to be pretty early stage, so i wouldnt mind to go for it
February 14, 2013
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Definately tough, but I think from villains perspective it kinda looks like you have a Qx hand or like 99/TT and is probably thinking (well he knows that A on the turn is a good barrell card and will probably call turn, but if I set it up such that I can put his tournament life on the line on the river he'll call turn and pretty much always fold river, unless he has some slowplayed set or AQ).
It is interesting, I don't think alot of ppl would 3-barrel without a hand here, but given his aggressive image, and the fact that you do have a pretty good hand (like maybe villain is sick enough to bet AJ/AT for value on river? I mean those hands are reasonably likely to be best most of the time), and the fact that he is from brazil I think this is a call. Sucks if you lose but I think if villain is bluffing turn he probably should be following through on river.
February 3, 2013
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This would be a sick bluff shove on river, since its a $1k buyin tourney and no antes there
I would call it on tourneys like Big11 or Bigger55, but slow structure, early stage without antes and high buyin lvl
I dont see any way how this could be a bluff.
“well he knows that A on the turn is a good barrell card and will probably call turn, but if I set it up such that I can put his tournament life on the line on the river he’ll call turn and pretty much always fold river, unless he has some slowplayed set or AQ”
Dont see why to risk it in this spot for villain. If he really had this thoughts, he has to know florianm1 def. knows these poker basics too. So if florianm1 calls the turnbet, villain has to know he is ready to call his shove on river too. I mean these guys who play $1k tourneys has to think that far, and not only “i set it up for river shove, so if he calls turn, he probably wont be able to call on river”
I think this guy was pretty sure florianm1 gonna call a river shove, since he called turnbet. Imo his rivershove seems to be at least AQ
February 14, 2013
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Hmm thats interesting. So your general perspective is that people will be hero calling for their tournament lives wider/more frequently in a 1k rather than a smaller buyin; therefore aggressive players will bluff in huge river spots more frequently in lower buyin events than higher buyin events. I think it'd be the exact opposite, but I havent really played any 1k events (online) so I don't have a ton of experience, but I would say in general the higher the buyin the less I would expect people to hero call.
Although I guess there is some merit to your theory in the sense that there will be less 'good spots' in the future if we fold in this 1k compared to like a 109 where you know if we fold, maybe we can double through one of the 2-3 fish at the table as I'm assuming there are very few fish in this 1k event, so therefore even though its a close spot we're more likely to call off since there's kinda less value in preserving our chips to some extent. At any rate I am curious if hero ended up calling; or folding like a huge nit 
June 11, 2012
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i gonna wait 2more day until i reveal my action
and nice discussion so far
keep it up
July 3, 2010
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FkCoolers said:
Based on all info you provided I am calling, I think. Although I don't think it's a super excited snap call.
We're near the very top of our value range and underrepped.
I don't like that 76 got there because that's definitely in villain's polarized 3 betting range based on what we know about him and the turn is more likely to be good for him than good for you in a lot of cases meaning it's a pretty easy 2 barrel for him.
June 11, 2012
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i ducked and folded
mainly because of tournament life preservation with playable stack
June 1, 2012
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florianm1 said:
i ducked and folded
mainly because of tournament life preservation with playable stack
Such a brutual spot. How did you end up doing anyway?
June 11, 2012
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Look at the ranging him, ranging me post! Its my bust 😉
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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The only reason I could ever fold here is that most MTT players don't overbet shove the river as a bluff. When I see it I usually say “people don't bluff like that” and fold.
The fact that he may sometimes flat AQ pre, and may sometimes check flop with a set of queens, makes this feel even more polarized between one combo of AA and a random vamoooooooooooo airball.
I still would have a very hard time making this call though, unless there was some kind of timing/feel aspect that made me feel extra suspicious. (I realize that sounds fishy.)
August 23, 2012
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4betting to get it in can be a good line and is one that I would take in a cash game from these positions. I play early stages of MTTs similarly to cash games because cEV is very close to tEV. If you think that a 4b can induce him to 5b light, I would go ahead and 4b with the intention of 6b shoving or call off. He seems like the ideal villain to 4b to 6b this preflop given how wide you think he is 3betting. Calling is certainly fine and it's good to change it up. If villain is barrel heavy postflop then I like the just call.
I love the flop call because we have the nut hand to float. Turn is a clear call because raising accomplishes nothing. There are no likely draws to protect from and we want him to continue on the river with all of his bluffs. He likely folds all worse hands to a turn shove, so calling is best.
It's very standard for SB to 3b AQ preflop from these positions. I also frequently 3b suited aces in SB's spot although I am not sure how much other players do that. You described his as an active Brazilian so I think we can include A5s, A8s, AQ, 76s, QQ and AA in his value range. We should discount QQ and AA because QQ checks the flop some of the time and I don't think AA goes for this sizing given that it has the board crushed and the hands that it gets value from will bet themselves. I'm not sure if he 3bs 88 with stacks so deep, but it's not unreasonable from the SB.
Further range analysis might help if we can figure out how many combos of air and monsters he ends up with on the river. I think it's reasonable to expect him to triple barrel any flopped gutter between the Q and 8 and any broadway gutter most of the time. Those would be the best bluffing candidates for villain. The turned A is so good for his range that I think he ends with a lot of air on the river that needs to bluff.
This is clearly a game theory call. AK is much better than the average hand that we get to the river with and we are deceptively strong in this spot. We could make an exploitive fold because players in MTT's rarely triple barrel bluff this early in a tournament. If there were a flop or turned flushdraw, I would be more likely to call down and I would agrue for a call. I can't decide between a call and a fold and don't mind either because I think it's so close. Call vs this villain and fold vs nittier villains IMO.
June 11, 2012
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i dont think that get in 125BB eff shows lots of profit in such a nice structured tournament
August 23, 2012
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I would only do it vs villains who are capable of 5betting light. With enough fold equity, 4betting to 6b shove can show a lot of “profit”. An agro Brazilian who has been 3betting hero's steals frequently is the perfect villain for that move. I recently read an article which used math to prove that even the best players are not good enough to pass up on spots with a 5% edge early in a tournament. Even though it seems somewhat thin, considering positions and dynamics, it's likely very profitable.
June 11, 2012
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can you send me that article. would really love to read it. seems to be pretty interesting.
and you are probably right vs that villain i should get it in. didnt want to mention that because at the time i played the hand i had the following information not.
few hands later he got AKo in SB vs MP for 150BB eff.
so i guess would be possible to get it in here against a decent range
May 30, 2012
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link me to article please
August 23, 2012
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I'm trying to find it. It was linked in a 2+2 thread I read a month or so ago. I'll let you know when I dig it out.
November 14, 2012
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The Sklansky-Chubukov numbers actually prove that moving in with AKo face up is still profitable at over 150BB. I’m fairly certain that would make AKs as a 6bet shove for 126BB effective +EV.
So long as your sure he’s 5betting light (say top 5%), getting it in pre should be good, although it would be high variance
February 3, 2013
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“The only reason I could ever fold here is that most MTT players don’t overbet shove the river as a bluff. When I see it I usually say “people don’t bluff like that” and fold.”
Same thinking. Even if i play aggro, i wouldnt overbet shove river with worse hands as AQ. It seems to me, that he had AQ/67
Ofc he could have woke up with monster like QQ/AA. If he really bluffed river with complete air, i would say “very well played”
I just cant find any possible situation, where i could call him off with AK in such a good structured tourney in early stage..
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