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Right lads, this is by far the most interesting hand I've posted. In fact, I expect at least 50 replies and an hour long podcast on it otherwise I'm cancelling my subscription! 
The villain hadn't been at the table that long but had been involved in a lot of pots, raising pre but generally calling people down post flop rather than being the aggressor. One hand in particular he'd check called all three streets with A3 off on an Ace high board. His stats were 38/12. He was a losing a relatively inexperienced player according to his OPR stats.
As you can see, I'm at a very deep table, despite being 4th in chips at this table I'm actually 7/70 in the tournament from an original field of roughly 1700. If I call and win, I'm chip leader. If I fold I've still got over 20bb's.
One thing that might be worth mentionning is that I tanked for ages after his raise on the turn. I'd made a silly mistake earlier in the tournament through rushing and I was determined not to do it again but it may have been a timing tell.
What the **** do you do here? My plan was to check call just about any none spade river but then the one that comes is a bitch. And don't get me started on the turn! 
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t250 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Aron30 (UTG+1): BB = 21.3, t42538
Hero (MP1): BB = 49.5, t99019
IgnacioMacia (MP2): BB = 37.1, t74238
zorro815 (CO): BB = 61.9, t123722
svetik601 (BTN): BB = 57.0, t113978
VandOgSalt (SB): BB = 36.4, t72842
LEXA55 (BB): BB = 48.0, t95911
L13 Tomcat (UTG): BB = 55.3, t110639
Pre Flop: (t5000) Hero is MP1 with 8
8
2 folds, Hero raises to t4000, IgnacioMacia calls t4000, 1 fold, svetik601 calls t4000, VandOgSalt calls t3000, LEXA55 calls t2000
Flop: (t22000) K 8
A (5 players)
VandOgSalt checks, LEXA55 checks, Hero bets t9000, IgnacioMacia folds, svetik601 calls t9000, VandOgSalt folds, LEXA55 folds
Turn: (t40000) T (2 players)
Hero bets t18000, svetik601 raises to t38000, Hero calls t20000
River: (t116000) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, svetik601 bets t62728 all in
I actually had a hand similar to this yesterday where I raised pre, flopped top set, was check called to river in which a river completed the flush. The sb/villain led river pot (all in) and I had to tank fold. You have to ask yourelf here, what is the villain repreenting here, and is it ever a bluff?
Chances are when you essentially get min raised on turn you are beat here. Only chance to win imo if you call is to pair the board on riv. In these stakes, villains, especially fish play pretty face up and there is not much here we beat. Any flush got there, 1010, got there, QJ got there. I think he raises flop with a big ace (probably 3 bets pre with these).
It is always tough to let sets go, but the board is way to wet to continue imo. Your bet sizing is good in the fact you are keeping the pot small and can afford to let this go and live to fight another day. Best of luck at the tables!
October 6, 2010
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that is like the worst runout you could have hoped for. i cant see much that you beat now except for pure air, and villain must have iron balls if he is doing this with air.
just have to sigh fold. i think you played it fine until river imo, turn raise would be setting alarm bells off but i think you can call and hope for a repeat on the river.
prob bet flop bigger cause of so many people in hand as we are never bet/folding.
dont really like the turn call, as he should never have air here, but if he is capable of doing this with AK, A10,AJ AQ, single spade hands 9J etc then 3bet shove turn. because he should bet raise/folding anything and if he does he folds good equity to us.
given reads id fold turn. its a pity that he isnt agg, cause i would kind of like check/shove turn if he would stab with a wider range than he calls or raises. but against this villian in game i fold turn.
October 6, 2010
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duggs said:
prob bet flop bigger cause of so many people in hand as we are never bet/folding.
dont really like the turn call, as he should never have air here, but if he is capable of doing this with AK, A10,AJ AQ, single spade hands 9J etc then 3bet shove turn. because he should bet raise/folding anything and if he does he folds good equity to us.
given reads id fold turn. its a pity that he isnt agg, cause i would kind of like check/shove turn if he would stab with a wider range than he calls or raises. but against this villian in game i fold turn.
on the turn, assuming we need to bink on the river, we only need to call 20k more, and the pot is already 96k with villain having 63 behind. i think we have more than enough odds to call.
even if villain never puts in another chip if the board pairs, we are still getting nearly 5:1 which is pretty much direct odds to hit our full house
I would have be more on the flop since its so wet. other than that I would have also called the turn hoping for a paired board to stack him and evaluate otherwise
By the river, It comes down to 1)a read 2) ranging him and 3)Tourney objective IMO:
1)You have a read that he opens wide but not that he calls wide PF, and also that post flop he is mostly passive. He played this hand aggresively postflop after the turn so I dont see why he would be bluffing here other than thinking he can get you to fold a lot of hands because of your delay calling the turn.
2)Your odds are good if you range him wide PF, the problem I see is that after his turn raise unless he is already planning a complicated 2 street bluff on this super wet board, I dont think his range is worse than a flush or sets of Aces or kings, plus one spade combos and J combos. with the Q on the river all those Jacks get there, so the only combos you beat are 2 pair combos like AK, AQ, AT, or KQ usually with one spade or pure bluffs. You lose to JJ, TT QQ, KK, AA, AJ, KJ, QJ, TJ, 9J, or any 2
combo obv.
I think you lose many more times than you win here, but you certainly have odds to call him. you are in the money already but far from the real money so I would make this call knowing that the times Im right which are maybe 1 in 4 are worth it from the ICM standpoint assuming I convert that 1 in 4 to more money than if I always folded. With that in mind maybe we shove the turn???
bennymacca said:
duggs said:
prob bet flop bigger cause of so many people in hand as we are never bet/folding.
dont really like the turn call, as he should never have air here, but if he is capable of doing this with AK, A10,AJ AQ, single spade hands 9J etc then 3bet shove turn. because he should bet raise/folding anything and if he does he folds good equity to us.
given reads id fold turn. its a pity that he isnt agg, cause i would kind of like check/shove turn if he would stab with a wider range than he calls or raises. but against this villian in game i fold turn.
on the turn, assuming we need to bink on the river, we only need to call 20k more, and the pot is already 96k with villain having 63 behind. i think we have more than enough odds to call.
even if villain never puts in another chip if the board pairs, we are still getting nearly 5:1 which is pretty much direct odds to hit our full house
October 6, 2010
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i think he can have AT, AK, as well as flushes, and QJ. maybe KT but not likely. i doubt it is ever a bluff here.
July 3, 2010
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Seems like a trivial fold.
I bet flop bigger. Check/call turn. Intention before river is to check/call but given the runout it is a check/fold or blocker/fold.
hawkeyeK9 said:
I bet flop bigger. Check/call turn. Intention before river is to check/call but given the runout it is a check/fold or blocker/fold.
why would you check turn given how wet the board is and the likelyhood that he will check behind alot of hands he will call with?
You said yourself that the villian is not the aggressor post flop so if you're calling the turn raise you're pretty much looking for a paired board. With that river it makes it an even easier fold. Fold turn or fold river are your only options IMO
October 6, 2010
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thedonator716 said:
You said yourself that the villian is not the aggressor post flop so if you're calling the turn raise you're pretty much looking for a paired board. With that river it makes it an even easier fold. Fold turn or fold river are your only options IMO
we are getting 5:1 direct odds on the turn, not including the rest of villain's stack which you would have to assume goes in on the river a significant amount of the time. folding the turn is a huge mistake imo.
duggs and i were talking about this hand last night, and one thing game up – do you think villain is ever going to do this on the turn with 2 pair? i can possibly see both AK and AT doing this given that the board is wet and they might be trying to protect their hand. I can also see AQ with the Qs and AJ with the Js doing this too.
i guess we can do some combinatorics or something, but i think there could be a case for shoving turn for value against 2 pair hands given that we are never dead unless villain as a higher set, and we never worry about that. This could be one of those spots that the big dog talks about where you play a huge pot for all the chips that could set you up for the rest of the tournament.
+1 to what benny said, I know we have the odds to call turn just to hit a paired board, but it sucks so bad to fold river to a less than half pot bet. Rip it in on turn and be ahead/have plenty of equity against his range.
Yep I agree. I messed up when I said fold turn or fold river are the only options. Calling to hit paired board is fine and I could consider shoving turn for value.
I did fold to his shove on the river and believe that at the time and as played it was the correct thing to do. My immediate thought after the hand was that I should have shoved myself after his re raise on the turn but I reckon there are arguments for either calling or raising. I don't like the fold because of the implied odds we are getting when we do hit our boat.
As it happens the villain went on to reveal himself to be a complete aggro spewtard and unbelievably about 3 hands after this one an almost identicle hand took place between the villain and another player at the table. The villain showed top pair, low kicker. I couldn't believe it.
To make things worse, he called two shoves from me over the next half hour or so, one I shoved AQo over his innitial raise and he called with A2o and we split the pot after the board paired twice and then the very next hand I shoved AK over his open raise again and this time he called me with Q6o and he knocked me out of the tournament when he binked a 6 on the river.
That's poker!
October 6, 2010
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ouch! i guess that shows the importance of trying to get as much information on villains as we can
great hand to post though
bennymacca said:
ouch! i guess that shows the importance of trying to get as much information on villains as we can
great hand to post though
Yeah, I suppose there's no saying he didn't have it on this occasion but had I known what I did about the villain half an hour later I would have snap shoved the turn.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing though isn't it!
bet ott, b/f river……as played, easy c/f otr vs. fish here(bad players often shove river with the nuts here, thats why we barrel)….you really, really, really, have to bet the turn in this spot.
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