I'll give a it a shot.

I think I'm squeezing 78s+, 55+(maybe66+), K8s+, K10o+, Q9s+, Q10o+, J10o+

In my head Im thinking somewhere around 40% of hands or so.

Am I way to wide here??????

I think being too aggro in these spots may be a leak of mine 

lainie1072 said:

I was discussing this hand with Bigdog, and thought it may lead to some discussion.

 

My question..  What hands here are we squeezing profitably in this spot?

 

Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300/t600 Blinds + t70 – 9 players

Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

Dtwist12 (UTG+2): BB = 12.5, t7475

PhilX-Qc (MP1): BB = 34.2, t20502

mike00001 (MP2): BB = 48.7, t29245

lannybananny (CO): BB = 7.9, t4760

Mason00 (BTN): BB = 26.9, t16120

kidbodhisat (SB): BB = 46.1, t27690

lainie1072 (BB): BB = 19.9, t11920

muchodumbo (UTG): BB = 41.7, t25019

pmar31 (UTG+1): BB = 28.8, t17300

Pre Flop: (t1530) lainie1072 is BB with K T

4 folds, mike00001 raises to t1800, 2 folds, kidbodhisat calls t1500, lainie1072 raises to t11850 all in

If we knew what range he was opening vs calling shove we can pinpoint pretty spot on what's profitable.  With their stack sizes being the only info we have, I'm guessing the gap is pretty large making your squeeze range pretty huge as well.

I think the stack sizes are good for this play. But what Im concerned with is our read on MP2. I would say that the 3x from this position is probably a pretty strong hand.  Do we think he is able to fold here? Im certain we are behind his range with KTs. Im not worried about the SB. Our hand doesnt really matter in this spot as we are not looking to get called, any hand is profitable if we are certain we are going to get the fold. If we do get called we want hands that arent dominated and  we are off to the races.

sorry if there are any russians here….I dont mean to be mean….

But….Ive seen lots of stuff I could spend my day here talking about….

Even yesterday on a board K Q10 or somehting like that a dude shoves 100k on the flop, the russian snap calls with 44 for all his chips and wins.

Before that 6 max, I shove UTG KQ for 25k M of 6 and the russian BB snap calls with A7o for over 70% of his stack….

Anyways….

JDOG1645 said:

I think the stack sizes are good for this play. But what Im concerned with is our read on MP2. I would say that the 3x from this position is probably a pretty strong hand.  Do we think he is able to fold here? Im certain we are behind his range with KTs. Im not worried about the SB. Our hand doesnt really matter in this spot as we are not looking to get called, any hand is profitable if we are certain we are going to get the fold. If we do get called we want hands that arent dominated and  we are off to the races.

My read on the open raiser was that he was hugely spewy and had previously opened 3X utg with J10s and snapped off a 16BB shove from AK, and binked.  Like one level later, he raised 3X Q10o  and snapped a 15BB shove but ran into KK.  I had no doubt that I he was uber-wide here and was likely calling anyways, regardless of what he put me on.  Which, in essence turns this into a semi-squeeze/value shove, but the flat in the sb removed question of what line to take. 

JDOG1645 said:

Well if you think this guy is going to call super wide and the X factor of the SB then I simply fold and look for a better spot. We dont want to be racing with KTs for our tourney life when we still have almost 20 BB.

I'm a little confused here.

If we think he is going to call super wide then wouldn't KTs be ahead of his range here and be possibly be shoving for value then.

I mean 20bb's is the “tricky” stack to work. You are either shoving to steal because you are confident villan is folding to tight or you are shoving for value if you know there are callling to wide.

In this example vilan is doing the later so we should be shoving over him for value and I think KTs falls in that value shove range, albeit on the lower side of that range I think it is still in our value range.

I would love to hear some more thought from some more people on this one.

Because if I'm shoving here and it is a leak………….it's a huge leak and I need to plug it………BUT

if I'm folding here and it's a leak…………..then it's a huge leak and I need to plug it. Ya dig?