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April 6, 2013
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So I haven't played with villain too much leading up to the final table, but he is playing something like 25/20/3 with AF = 3. He is not a particularly succesful MTT player up to this point in his OPR. I think he might have been a small winner at micros. I haven't seen him do anything bad though, which over 40 hands, is pretty significant considering the level of play genearlly. Payouts aren't too relative here I don't think, but I can look them up if requested.
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t250000/t500000 Blinds + t50000 – 8 players – View hand 2328147
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
BTN: BB = 31.8, t15924874
SB: BB = 26.4, t13185503
Hero (BB): BB = 73.6, t36787926
UTG: BB = 29.7, t14852416
UTG+1: BB = 75.5, t37729513
MP1: BB = 63.9, t31973374
MP2: BB = 13.1, t6551404
CO: BB = 39.7, t19869990
Pre Flop: (t1150000) Hero is BB with T
9
2 folds, MP1 raises to t1000000, 4 folds, Hero calls t500000
Flop: (t2650000) Q 3
T
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
Turn: (t2650000) T (2 players)
Hero bets t1111111, MP1 raises to t2500000, Hero calls t1388889?
River: (t7650000) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t3000000, Hero
My thinking: villain doesn't have the weakest range in the world to open here. He declines a c-bet.
Brokos hand reading system would peg him for showdown value or give ups then, possibly monsters (ie QQ).
I lead turn. I think maybe I have a lot of checks that I want to protect here, but I can do that with QX. Also, I can get value from some JJ/Q8s/44-99 hands.
Villain raises. Brokos hand reading system suggests now he has a monster or air. All monsters beat me with exception of like Th8h, Ts8s. There is also the possibility he turned clubs with a give up like AXcc where X does not = K,J or a XYcc that didn't have a gutshot on the flop like 87cc, 86cc, 76cc, 56cc. But even these often make sense to c-bet. Basically in game I consider clubs to be his bluff raising range and better hands to be his value raising range. But maybe I didn't give enough consideration to the possibility that he would c-bet so many club club hands. I could three-bet/fold the turn, but in a lot of these spots in micro tournaments against unknowns I just go by the rule of keeping the pot small and villains range wide and to make as many decisions as I possibly can.
River clubs out, I check, villain bets a value-town size. I lose to all club club hands and to all but 2 combos of value hands. How can I call?
This is not a valuable bet in terms of ICM though, it is worth stating. The Storm structure slows down a lot with 100 people left, hence the deep stacks. So in strict ICM terms, I can afford to treat this as closer to cEV than the payouts might suggest.
June 11, 2012
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if you think there are any chances he plays AA or KK this way then we might have to call.
but other then that i think its a sigh fold as everything points towards boats.
and btw. sick hidden brag 
August 8, 2013
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He almost min-raises you on the turn and you just flat oop. I think I like re-popping it here as you are really only losing to QQ and if he does have AA/KK he isn't going to fold, plus a club on the river is going to freeze the action if you just bet/call so you are going to be in a spot where you can't really get value out of AA/KK anymore and if he does have AK with the Ac he is less likely to respect a river lead bet.
Given your huge stack I think check calling the river is also fine, but I would prefer to just donk lead the river for 2.2 million or so (whetever amount you would be comfortable calling essentially), he's only going to raise you with better (full houses and nut flushes), he's going to call you with a ton of hands that you are ahead of, and you preserve some fold equity against better T's (rare), plus as a partial blocking bet you save some money. I don't see the value in check folding trips on the river when it is so hard for him to be ahead with anything but a flush draw that hit, and when he does he might still just flat since the board is paired.
April 6, 2013
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To be honest I think repopping the turn is pretty suboptimal here.
Villain can have a lot more than QQ that beats us. The main thing he is representing, and reasonably credibly, is TX. And almost all TX beats us. JT, QT, KT, AT. Those are the most likely TX for him to open anyways.
Also I should say, if we think about our own range to bet-call the turn, T9 is no where near the top of it and probably lays somewhere in the middle.
I don't think I really have a turn three-bet range in this spot. Maybe I should, but I don't think I do. I don't three-bet QQ pre here and I flat all pocket pairs and a ton of TX. So I can have JT/QT/KT/AT/QQ myself and on the river I can have lots of flushes, any nut flush and most other flushes.
That may or may not be too relevant, but I am not panicked about folding this combo and being a super nit with regards to my own range.
TPE Pro
August 6, 2013
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I playing the same way this hand and calling river bet, basically we are losing to only few hands which might be KT/AT, those two hands might not cbet and try to pot control with decent showdown value, I'm not sure how often he is check backing QQ-33 on the flop, so yeah I would high five the monitor and press the call button.
A dream doesn't become reality through magic; it takes sweat, determination and hard work.
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September 28, 2012
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I semi disagree with Merfinis her in regards to what we should be afriad of(at least on turn). I think QQ/33 is a huge part of his range on the turn(realtively speaking), but he is righ tin that AT/KT/JT are also hands we are concerned with with QT being thrown in there as well.
I think his flop check but turn bet signlas more towards QQ/33/QT/JT then it does to AT/KT. I think IP on this dry board he an protect and value bet his KT/AT. HE might pot control JT though. And QT+ is fairly safe here so checking to let you hit is fine. I also thnik there is a chance he has something like AJcc/K9cc, some gut shot that turned a FD(maybe even J9/KJcc), and is now raising knowing the second T makes it more unlikely you have a Q or T.
However, his river sizing is interesting. I think with boats I expect a much bigger bet, and sort of the same with FDs(although I expect FDs to eb more mid, like half pot, while boats will be clsoer to 2/3 or 3/4 pots). His ~2/5 sizing tells me its more eighted towards pure bluffs or Ts. And I thnk his Ts are weighted much more to JT- then AT/KT so I def call here.
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June 8, 2012
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im close between call/fold. randoms play so bad though that they can certainly have stupid stuff that we beat here, as well as bluffs obv. then a part of me thinks it is what it is…so if our reads are that he hasnt gotten out of line yet, Id lean towards a nitty gross fold.
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August 6, 2013
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CCuster 911 said:
I semi disagree with Merfinis her in regards to what we should be afriad of(at least on turn). I think QQ/33 is a huge part of his range on the turn(realtively speaking), but he is righ tin that AT/KT/JT are also hands we are concerned with with QT being thrown in there as well.
I think his flop check but turn bet signlas more towards QQ/33/QT/JT then it does to AT/KT. I think IP on this dry board he an protect and value bet his KT/AT. HE might pot control JT though. And QT+ is fairly safe here so checking to let you hit is fine. I also thnik there is a chance he has something like AJcc/K9cc, some gut shot that turned a FD(maybe even J9/KJcc), and is now raising knowing the second T makes it more unlikely you have a Q or T.
However, his river sizing is interesting. I think with boats I expect a much bigger bet, and sort of the same with FDs(although I expect FDs to eb more mid, like half pot, while boats will be clsoer to 2/3 or 3/4 pots). His ~2/5 sizing tells me its more eighted towards pure bluffs or Ts. And I thnk his Ts are weighted much more to JT- then AT/KT so I def call here.
I think all straight draws, back door flush draws are cbeting flop for trying to take a pot down immediately.
Also QQ/33/QT imo they are cbeting, because Hero's BB range has a good portion of KJ/J9 hands, so giving them free card isn't the best way to play the hand. Not sure about the flush draws, what is the point for them to raise a turn bet?
Dunno, I could be wrong, but I think if we lost a hand then we did vs AT/KT.
A dream doesn't become reality through magic; it takes sweat, determination and hard work.
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December 6, 2012
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I think you probably folded the river, and if so you played it near-perfectly. I would bet bigger on the turn but definitely just call the raise. Even if you think there's a chance he's doing this for value with worse, which I think is a stretch, he could still very easily have better. A 3-bet would be drastically overplaying your hand IMO.
My biggest concern going into the river is that he might end up accidentally bluffing me if is overvaluing worse, because I don't want to call more than 35% pot or so on any river. I consider a club a lucky river because it ought to slow him down in that one exact scenario I'm worried about.
Folks saying he could be bluffing: with what? If he wanted to bluff, why didn't he just bet the flop? I think a shady, needlessly convoluted line is far more likely to be a huge hand trying to get value than some weird bluff.
It's also not enough simply to say “well we only lose to a few hands so call.” You also only beat a few hands, and they seem so much less likely to me that I don't think folding the river is at all close.
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