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To value bet or not to value bet
kardi31
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March 24, 2017 - 10:03 am
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This is the hand from Big $11

 

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: …..racker.com

UTG+1: 11,691
MP: 17,606
MP+1: 13,542
MP+2: 5,122 
CO: 10,056 
BTN: 8,094 
SB: 10,075 
Hero (BB): 12,072
UTG: 10,56

9 players post ante of 40, SB posts SB 150, Hero posts BB 300

Pre Flop: (pot: 810) Hero has Qd Th
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 606, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 306

 

Not much info about opponent, he has gold stars on PokerStars so seems to be a reg.

Gave him a range of 33+,A3s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A7o+,KJo+,QJo  pre-flop for opening at MP+1

Flop : (1,722, 2 players) Qh Ad 7c
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 432, Hero calls 432

Villain c-bets very small, at this point alarm bells started ringing in my head as he has a lot of A in his range including AQ, A7, also AA,QQ & 77. Decided to call given the right price.

Turn : (2,586, 2 players) Tc
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 900, Hero calls 900

Good flop. I checked as he still could have some better two-pair combos & sets. He bets very small again. At this point I was pretty sure I am not ahead and he is betting purely for value. Called turn bet with my goal set now to get cheaply to showdown.

As villain bets I narrowed his range to AK,AQ, A7, AA, QQ, 77, maybe AT. I don’t think he was bluffing at this point as his range pre-flop would connect on this board a lot, and with KK,JJ,99 he’s never betting twice.

River : (4,386, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, MP+1 checks

River gives me a full house. So we beat now AK,77, AT. We lose to AA,AQ,QQ. I decided to check-call here.

Hero shows Qd Th (Full House, Queens full of Tens)

MP+1 mucks Ah 4h (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)

Hero wins 4,386

 

Now I’m wondering if it was too nitty play on my side. I think I played all-right pre, flop and turn. Just wondering if I could value bet the river at this point. I think I was feared on the river of getting check-raised and jumping onto hands that beat me. Those flop and turn bet sizes were worrying. Did I put the villain on top of his range too hasty? 

Foucault

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March 24, 2017 - 12:18 pm
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Did I put the villain on top of his range too hasty?”

Yes. I mean, I do understand your reasoning, but it’s really quite backwards to say, “Hmmm, he’s betting small, he must be EXTREMELY STRONG” when in fact that’s exactly the opposite of how he *ought* to want to play strong hands.

But beyond that, I think you need to dissect this: “I think I was feared on the river of getting check-raised and jumping onto hands that beat me.”

So what if Villain raises the river? How does that cost you any more than if you check and call a bet and he has a bigger boat? Either way, you lose a bet. The difference is that if you bet, you give him the chance to put another bet in with his Ax that will happily check back the river if given the opportunity. By checking and calling, you put Villain in control. He gets to put a bet into the pot when he wants it, and take a showdown when he wants it.

FWIW I like your play up until river.

kardi31
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March 25, 2017 - 3:39 pm
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Thanks Andrew for your feedback. Can’t even discuss with you as I agree 100% with what you said. 

I’m wondering now what bet sizing would be best for the river bet. I would be torn between 2 options
– 30-35% to get the value from stronger A 

– 65% to get the value from the top of his range which I beat (KQ, 77)

I would probably go with first bet sizing as there are very few combos that would call 65% bet

theginger45

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March 27, 2017 - 4:17 pm
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I like the line of betting river, but it’s worth thinking about what bluffs you might reasonably have in your range at that point. You’d probably have to turn some JT or even weak Ax into a bluff there in order to be even somewhat balanced, so betting river is definitely an exploitative play.

Andrew’s logic is the nuts though, I think you were way too hasty in assuming strength on villain’s part. “Monsters under the bed” syndrome, as they call it. 🙂

Foucault

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March 27, 2017 - 9:52 pm
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theginger45 said
I like the line of betting river, but it’s worth thinking about what bluffs you might reasonably have in your range at that point. You’d probably have to turn some JT or even weak Ax into a bluff there in order to be even somewhat balanced, so betting river is definitely an exploitative play.

Andrew’s logic is the nuts though, I think you were way too hasty in assuming strength on villain’s part. “Monsters under the bed” syndrome, as they call it. 🙂  

OK, so maybe the optimal play involves turning some pairs into bluffs. Or making blocking bets. I don’t see why betting when you river a full house is “definitely an exploitative play”.

theginger45

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March 28, 2017 - 12:59 pm
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Foucault said

OK, so maybe the optimal play involves turning some pairs into bluffs. Or making blocking bets. I don’t see why betting when you river a full house is “definitely an exploitative play”.  

I mean, you already identified that the reason for doing it was to give villain a chance to put another bet in with Ax. I was just following on from that reasoning, since that reasoning doesn’t really take into account whether or not villain actually should be putting in another bet with Ax – we’re making a play based on what villain will actually do, rather than what they should be doing. Based on the strength of villain’s 2-barrelling range on this board, I would imagine calling any Ax versus a river lead here would be over-calling in the extreme.

Assuming we’re not check-calling turn with Qx that often, we likely don’t have a significant range advantage on this river, which I would suspect to mean that a GTO approach would involve checking our entire range – it’s really difficult to have a leading range alongside a solid bluff-catching frequency here, and certainly a simplified strategy that doesn’t involve both options would be a lot easier to implement effectively. As a result, any strategy that involves leading out seems like it would be exploitative rather than optimal here, since it deviates from what a GTO sim would probably tell us. Not that we have to care about that, of course – I certainly like your idea of leading river – but it seems tough to assume leading is what PIO or SP would advocate here.

Foucault

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March 28, 2017 - 2:17 pm
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the strength of villain’s 2-barrelling range on this board… Assuming we’re not check-calling turn with Qx that often”

Villain min-raised pre and bet 1/4 pot on flop and 1/3 pot on turn. I don’t think you should be folding much Qx on the turn. Certainly not QT/QJ/KQ.

Nas47
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March 29, 2017 - 7:15 pm
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Good flop. I checked as he still could have some better two-pair combos & sets. He bets very small again. At this point I was pretty sure I am not ahead and he is betting purely for value. Called turn bet with my goal set now to get cheaply to showdown.

As villain bets I narrowed his range to AK,AQ, A7, AA, QQ, 77, maybe AT. I don’t think he was bluffing at this point as his range pre-flop would connect on this board a lot, and with KK,JJ,99 he’s never betting twice.

I think saying he is never betting twice is not a good way to think about poker. There is nothing that physically restrains villain from betting two streets with any two cards. He can decide to turn 33-99 into a bluff on the turn given his range advantage, whether that is good play is another discussion. From the range you assigned to him Axcc, 89s, KTcc are some hands that he can bet turn with also. You also did not include KJ which just made a str8. I think the range you assigned to villain is too strong and if villain is only betting that range why are u calling if you are sure “u are behind and villain is betting purely for value?”…u are only ahead of AK and AT and you cant really improve to beat villains strong hands. If villain has the strong hands you think he has how will you ever get cheaply to showdown…he is going to bet the river? I am bringing up these points to question your line of thought and challenge you to think more deeply about your decision making process. In my opinion his bet sizings indicate he does not have a strong hand. I would value bet the river. You have a very strong hand on the river. You lose to pocket aces and AQ which you block. You can get value from worse that would call a bet but will check back if given the chance. If villain had made more common bet sizings and I check I am not going to check call in the Big 11. I am going to check raise because villains in the Big 11 station with worse hands when they shouldn’t.    

theginger45

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March 31, 2017 - 12:17 pm
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Foucault said
the strength of villain’s 2-barrelling range on this board… Assuming we’re not check-calling turn with Qx that often”

Villain min-raised pre and bet 1/4 pot on flop and 1/3 pot on turn. I don’t think you should be folding much Qx on the turn. Certainly not QT/QJ/KQ.  

Broadly speaking I agree (for some reason I thought the turn bet was 1200), but there’s still a lot more Ax in our c/c turn range than Qx. Whether a slightly higher Qx frequency is enough to give us a range advantage, I’m not sure. 

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