Since we both had 40 bigs 3b folding  seems spewy and I raised on the flop to get value out of hands like 77-99 and overcards with a flush draw.

I agree with shawnivey here with the 3bet pf with these stacks and we have position on villain.  Your line would have looked super-strong, had he called your 3b pf, called a flop bet, and K binks the turn-you can rep. strong here with a bet on which would be consistent with your line had you 3b  pf. Since we just called preflop, i'd prob flat flop and jam turn.  Sure, he is calling you with AK ott, but you still have fold equity and put 88, 99, JJ, QQ, KJ, AJ type hands in a tough spot(some may suggest the less variance route by calling ott to get your hand to showdown, but it doesnt feel like we're good here imo-villain's stats give me impression that he has some idea of what he is doing(would be interesting how villain views you though and your stats-may change villain's line vs. you).  As played, with him flatting flop, and donking turn, and then super-small value bet on river-makes me want to puke and fold.  I think he would c/c value hands(88, 99, JJ, QQ, A10, KJ, KQ, Q10, 109s) at showdown given how the action played out(I would check the river to let you barrell your bricked flush draw and snap here if i were villain), so really leaning toward a fold otr even though the math tells you to call in some spots here.  Sounds like this guy is clever by making you put in almost 39k pre-river and thin value bets otr(leveling you into thinking you can call and still have a reshove stack if you are wrong, which is ingenious if has 88, or busted flush draw or total air and you fold, and conversly if he has the goods here and you look him up).   Good post!

This is a really interesting hand.

Keep in mind there's 13 left in the 30r, which is a pretty big score for most people. There's a significant bubble dynamic here. Look at stacks around the table.

I think 3betting pre is bad to awful at this stack size. You're wasting a hand that can flop lots of equity and possibly stack his big pairs/top pairs. If you're 3betting this hand you might as well be 3betting 84o. I like the flat.

I also prefer flatting the flop. (In your spot, I personally raise/get it in, but that's a mistake given our showdown value.) Raise/getting it in vs. his get-it-in range at this stage of the tournament would be spewy. He's only getting it in with overpairs, sets, and better flush draws (except one combo, 75ss). Sure, our equity is good, but I think it's a mistake to bloat this pot by raising the flop. If we get it in we are always behind.

I don't hate a turn shove, but I don't think he folds better.

As played, turning our hand into a bluff on the river to get him off of AA/AK (which is what I think he has) would be sexy…although our line might be kind of hard to believe. (I wouldn't try that without bubble dynamic obviously.)

That said, in game I play it exactly like you did, although I'm a bit more of a station and I don't think I can find a fold getting 4-1 on the river. I think some small percentage of the time he has a worse pair (he can bet/call the flop because your raise looks like a draw, and his turn/river bets look like blocking bets — i don't necessarily believe that though, but maybe 1 of 5 times? idk…).

The idea of 3betting this hand preflop goes against everything I've ever heard on 3betting theory/strategy. This is a hand that flops well and will be easy to play post. You'll know exactly what to do on most flops.

This particular flop is only tricky because of our showdown value. I think it's best to flat, keep the pot relatively small, and get to showdown if you can. Your flop raise says “I want to play a huge pot with this hand.” Like I said, in the heat of the moment I'd play it the same way, but away from the tables, it seems questionable to me.

On the river, he leaves himself almost exactly 20bb. That looks a little suspicious, but it might mean nothing.

I am 3betting this hand pre a lot in this scenario. Great hand to 3bet in position this deep imo.

I would agree with rivermen on this one. I think three betting pre is a waste of a such a great hand being 40bb deep and great playability post flop. Good players will not be flatting a +1 3bet out of position unless it is nutted, more times than not I think villain will be 4betting (which we would be folding to) or folding, (which means we are turning our JT suited into a bluff). On the topic of getting squeezed I think that is a bridge we need to cross when we come to it. With a +1 raise and +2 flat I would have to assign the 3bettor a decently strong range in this scenario which we can easily fold to and still be left with 38bb. We can assume this because of bubble dynamics. If the CO shoves for 7bb so be it and we get to act after the original raiser. If he folds we can call comfortably getting significant odds. Being the two biggest stacks at the table, and seemingly aggressive stats, I would imagine the raiser to have a wider opening range pre (7 handed table) which our JT will play super well against. This leads me towards flatting pre.

Once we flop such a huge hand on the with showdown value, and equity, I think the best play would be to flat flop. His stats show a high percent cbet. If we raise we are only isolating ourselves against his better hands while folding out all his bluffs that we beat. This also opens up our hand to a 3bet which would be sickening, but one we might have to go with given our equity in the hand.  On the turn an aggressive player will barrell with the overcard falling and again we can call comfortably knowing he is likely to be doing it with all his air as well as his value hands (which we have equity against). Again, by raising we are only isolating ourselves against hands that are ahead of us, while folding out his weaker hands and bluffs. We may not even fold out the 9 combos of JJ and QQ. If he is barreling spades here we are still ahead with our pair. I believe calling two streets on this board will result in him giving up on most rivers with air, and only betting his strong hands that we dont beat and can fold to. On the river if he barrells again I think we will have to fold, I dont think he is value betting a worse hand here ever, and rarely continuing to bluff. If he is a player willing to bet missed draws here we can call his 1/4 pot bet, but I think more times than not, the way this hand played out we are beat on the river. 

By playing it this way we are keeping all worse hands in the pot, controlling the size with decent showdown value, and allowing ourselves to see all 5 cards with such a big hand. I like flatting pre, on the flop, and on the turn, and deciding on river.

Interesting hand, I liked thinking this one through!

hawkeyeK9 said:

I am 3betting this hand pre a lot in this scenario. Great hand to 3bet in position this deep imo.

I'd say both you and your opponent need to be at least 60 bbs deep to put in a 3b here; hands like this QJ suited 10 9 suited 88-1010 are all good hands to be flatting in pos. Also I'm liking the idea of flatting flop the more I've looked at this hand and raising turn doesn't seem like a good idea.

nocturnal1 said:

hawkeyeK9 said:

I am 3betting this hand pre a lot in this scenario. Great hand to 3bet in position this deep imo.

I'd say both you and your opponent need to be at least 60 bbs deep to put in a 3b here; hands like this QJ suited 10 9 suited 88-1010 are all good hands to be flatting in pos. Also I'm liking the idea of flatting flop the more I've looked at this hand and raising turn doesn't seem like a good idea.

you guys realize we arnt really in position right? we are in position vs opener but thats it, we cant price people in behind us or let them steal, and 40bb is a lot in tournaments not sure if you guys know this or not

if you think you need 60bb to 3 bet hands like this i would guess you continually get very “unlucky”

^ yes this…..i dont see how we ever think flatting JT here is good preflop